The rise in prices will give a small respite next year. According to the spring forecasts of the EU, inflation will grow by 1.8% in Spain in 2023, being the country in which this indicator will rise the least. We will have to wait, because this year Brussels expects prices to rise by 6.3% at the national level, bordering on the European average. These estimates are heavily influenced by the war in Ukraine, which has pushed up the prices of gas, electricity and fossil fuels, as well as basic necessities.
«The Russian invasion has caused the European economy to face a decisive period. The price of energy has raised inflation to record levels and has increased the pressure on companies and families, "said the Trade Commissioner, Valdis Dombrovskis. The conflict has made inflation one of the main risks for European economies, due to the lack of security in supply chains and the volatility of energy prices. However, Brussels expects prices to peak in the second half of the year -reaching 6.9%- and then gradually decline.
The war will also influence the economic recovery after the pandemic, which will now be slower than expected. Brussels expects Spanish GDP to grow by 4% this year and 3.4% in 2023. The EU also lowers its economic forecasts for the block as a whole and calculates that GDP will grow by 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% next year.
However, Brussels highlights that the foundations of the European economy "remain solid" and that "positive signs" are seen that point to growth. This has been pointed out by the Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, who has highlighted "the strong recovery of the labor market, the reopening after the pandemic and the Next Generation funds" as some of the decisive factors in the next two years.