The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is anticipating an increase in displacement within Ukraine due to the ongoing Russian war of aggression rather than a large flow of refugees towards the EU countries. "The most likely scenario is further displacement within Ukraine," said UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi in an interview with "Spiegel". "I hope there won't be another big movement of refugees." At the same time he qualified: "But war is unpredictable."

He worries that those who are still able to flee abroad will most likely need more support. "Those who have stayed in Ukraine so far either had fewer contacts in Europe or were less mobile," Grandi told Der Spiegel. He was confident that the EU states could also take in additional refugees from Ukraine if necessary. "Europe can withstand the challenge for a while longer," he said. Looking ahead to the winter, Grandi said: "Unlike spring, this time more publicly operated accommodation will be needed, and funds will be needed for that." Therefore, countries like Poland and the Czech Republic, which would have to bear a particularly heavy burden, should be given financial support, he demanded.

Largest displacement of people in decades

In view of the winter weather and ongoing Russian attacks on the country's civilian infrastructure - especially on electricity and heat supply facilities - there have been repeated fears that many more Ukrainians could now flee to the EU. To this end, the German ambassador in London, Miguel Berger, made a statement on Sunday. "We are very concerned about this because these attacks on energy infrastructure mean many people could be forced to leave Ukraine in the freezing temperatures." The diplomat further told the British TV broadcaster Sky News: "We expect a further wave of refugees in the coming weeks."

Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the end of February has led to the largest displacement of people in decades, according to the UNHCR. It was only at the beginning of November that Grandi said in New York that around 14 million people had been driven from their homes since the beginning of the war. According to the UNHCR, almost eight million have sought protection abroad, one million of them in Germany.

UNHCR chief Grandi expressly praised "the current European policy of sustainable hospitality" towards the Ukrainian refugees. They have direct access to the social systems and are allowed to work. "For years such approaches were considered bad or unworkable. But in reality they have reduced the pressure on governments and societies because they have created a certain self-regulatory mechanism," said Grandi.