The ecological transition to the test of the crisis - The Point

After nearly three months of confinement, the French continue to look demanding on the contours of the transformation of their country. Launched in the spring o

The ecological transition to the test of the crisis - The Point

After nearly three months of confinement, the French continue to look demanding on the contours of the transformation of their country. Launched in the spring of 2017, a few weeks after the election of Emmanuel Macron, the dashboard No Com of the transformation of France decrypts regularly the expectations of the French on the concrete implementation of the reforms. In this eighth wave conducted at the beginning of June, their questions remain intact. The opinion is still very divided on the benefits of the transformation initiated in 2017, for France as for the French themselves. Three months of health crisis did not remove the social divide installed several years ago between France was more favored, who believes in the achievements of the change, and more concerned about the effects of globalization. With this health crisis, history is lived across the planet, never the French, already more severe than their neighbors before the crisis, were also shown to be critical about globalization. This report troubled in their external environment continues to structure movements of opinion, often conflicting, between desire for openness and adaptation and aspiration to the protection and decline.

However, this investigation begins with an observation rather positive with a surge of optimism. The moral of the French is slightly higher compared to the previous wave driving in the aftermath of the strikes against the pension reform. This improvement is probably explainable by the effect of relief caused by the end of the confinement. This is particularly the case among women, young people and social categories promoted. Another positive sign, despite the climate of economic crisis due to the health crisis : the French still overwhelmingly want their country to be transformed. And they are also more likely to recognize that the crisis of the Covid-19 will transform their life in a positive way.

The return of the State

In a context of a health crisis always generates fear and an economic crisis to the social consequences already perceptible, the master word of this transformation, it is the protection. The word is used by 78 % of the French. 65 % of people surveyed by Ifop expect the transformation that it seeks to protect traditional jobs, to the detriment of the digital revolution : this is an increase of 15 points in three years and 5 points since December. The trend is also always directed towards the need to protect against redundancies and reduce inequalities. Behind this expectation of protection an actor becomes central : the State, it is true ubiquitous for the past 3 months on the two components, health and economic. Ever since the creation of this dashboard, the public had hoped for with so much intensity that its role should be maintained or strengthened. An Illustration of this reflex, the offset symbolic link between the majority support the principle of the nationalisation and the rejection just as dominant of the principle of privatisation. It would be hasty to conclude that ideological evolution of French in favour of the left. This reflex "crisis" looks more like a pragmatic willingness to resume control of France over the course of its development model.

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This aspiration is also expressed by a recovery of environmental control. The health crisis does not prevent the aspiration of increasing the transition ecologist who continues in the dashboard No Com to trace its path. The accession of the French to the green transition becomes more and more consensual. It doesn't now the difference between the social classes. It is experiencing an impressive surge among the younger generations. But the question to come, as illustrated by the debate on the consequences of the proposals made by the convention on climate change, will be whether the French, in the midst of economic crisis, will be willing to put that aspiration new phase with their actions, and their eventual vote. In a scenario of a transformation as an alternative to driving today, the ecological transition undergoes in effect the direct competition of emergencies related to the context of the crisis. In the transformational model of post-health crisis created by the French, sovereignty, industrial, reduction of inequality, and the more strict control of migration flows ahead of the acceleration of the ecological transition. Between the emergency economic and social aftermath of the health crisis and the priorities of long-term inspired by the green transition, we can guess in this dashboard No Com the delicate equation of the last two years of the quinquennium.

The notebooks of nocom - numero 6 to CabinetNoCom

Find the previous analyses :

EXCLUSIVE. Our barometer world Covid

What the crisis is going to change : the outbreak of fear

What the crisis is going to change : the singularities French

What the crisis is going to change : the lessons of a containment

What the crisis is going to change : after the fear of health, fear, economic

*No Com is the office of strategy consultancy founded by Pierre Giacometti, and Alain Péron in 2008. With its team of experienced consultants, the firm accompanies in France and the international managers of large public and private companies in the definition, deployment, and communication of their strategy. No Com created, for the companies and their leaders, stories that transform and foster innovation. The firm has its headquarters in Paris and has a subsidiary in Madrid.

Updated Date: 22 June 2020, 07:33

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