The survey that the company Ipsos has prepared for La Vanguardia, and the first part of which we are publishing today, indicates that the PSC would once again win the elections in Catalonia by obtaining 36 seats, while the current absolute pro-independence majority in Parliament could be in danger, dropping from 74 to 68 deputies, by 67 from the opposition. Esquerra would retain the 33 seats in 2021, but Junts would lose up to seven deputies, while the CUP would win one more than it currently has.
The Catalan electoral map would be completed with a rise in the Popular Party, which would go from three to seven deputies, while Vox would also gain positions by adding one more seat to the eleven it now has. The big loser in the center-right would be Citizens again, who would stay with three representatives, while the commons would also advance, reaching nine seats.
A political reading of the poll results shows the loyalty of the socialist electorate, to which neither Catalangate nor the scandal over espionage against members of the Spanish government would make them desist from continuing to place their trust in the party led by Salvador Illa. The leader of the opposition is tied in rating (38% approve) with President Aragonès, but receives fewer suspensions than the ERC leaders, among whom Oriol Junqueras is the best rated leader (41%).
The electoral stagnation that Esquerra shows may be a consequence of the low confidence that the Catalans show to have in the administration of President Aragonès. Less than 30% of the population thinks that things in Catalonia are “going in the right direction”, and 43% judge the management of the current coalition government's first year in office to be bad or very bad. And more significant is that almost a third of the voters who vote for independence agree that the management of the Catalan Executive is bad or very bad. In fact, only 27% of those surveyed believe that Aragonès is capable of uniting the Catalans.
The setback that the poll attributes to Junts coincides with the party's pre-congress movements and the pact in extremis to set up a joint candidacy between Laura Borràs and Jordi Turull, and in the midst of the umpteenth clash with its ERC partners, this time due to its refusal to sign the pact for the reform of the Language Policy Law. Given the electoral results that the survey attributes to Junts, those who advocate within the formation to break with the Republicans and force elections should perhaps reconsider.
The possible effects of Catalangate do not seem to have an impact on the commitment to maintain bridges with the central government. 60% vote to continue with the dialogue –62% in Esquerra voters–, although 53% consider espionage unjustified. In fact, only 16%, especially Junts, Vox and CUP voters, would be in favor of dropping the Madrid Executive. It is, therefore, the two extremes of the ideological arc that express the greatest rejection. Almost half of Catalans believe that Minister Margarita Robles should resign, although only 34% ask for the head of President Sánchez.
The division in Catalan society on espionage cases appears when 33% consider them justified if they have judicial authorization, a figure that rises to 42% if we add those who admit it in all cases. On the contrary, 53% defend that it is not justified in any case. The socialist voter (64%) endorses authorized espionage but is surpassed by PP and Vox, with 80%.
From the survey data it can be deduced the few changes that the espionage scandals have in the behavior of the Catalan voter, their majority desire that dialogue between the Generalitat and Moncloa remain open, and the low acceptance of the Government's management and of the ability of President Aragonès to unite all Catalan citizens.