While a moderate increase in numbers is initially expected in the eastern German non-city states and then a fall from 2027, the number of pupils in the western German non-city states is expected to increase by 10.2 percent by 2035. In the city states it is expected to be even 11.7 percent.

The KMK expects the number of school leavers with a high school diploma or technical college entrance qualification to increase by 12.8 percent to 448,000. It is expected that 50,000 young people would leave school in 2035 without a secondary school certificate, which would be 7.2 percent more than in 2021.