Castilla-y Leon elections open a new electoral period that will pass through the Andalusian election this year and end in the general elections at either the end of 2023, or the beginning 2024. These elections are key to comparing health policies of the main forces beyond the halfway point.
Except for the CIS, the polls are happy to see the popular ones who want to replicate the 'Ayuso Effect' and pave the way to Moncloa for Pablo Casado. With victories in Castilla y Leon, Andalusia and other political cycles, the PP hopes to create the impression that Spain is changing. This would then be the prelude for the general elections. This is a story Casado would be unable to swallow if he relies on Vox to lead. Santiago Abascal's formation is not satisfied with watching the bulls from the sidelines. He will demand that the government enter. Ciudadanos has no margin, while Empty Spain attempts to make a hole, and Podemos tries to save the furniture.
The PSOE was not surprised by the early elections in Castilla y Leon. Luis Tudanca had just arrived in Ferraz to take photos for a campaign that the Socialists had been involved in for some time. They want to capitalize on the vote loss from Ciudadanos and to get the support of United We Can and single-provincial parties in order to force the PP into defining its relationship to Vox. The prospects are not looking good. All polls except the CIS predict his fall in relation to his large victory in the 2019 regional election.
After Madrid's crushing defeat, the 13-F appointment will be the first with the polls. Ferraz will assess the presence of Pedro Sanchez, but he will not make the error of making him the candidate in any case.
The legislature has two years remaining and the PP is preparing for Moncloa. The people want the Castilla y Leon elections to be the first public display of Pablo Casado’s political project. It's about repeating the Ayuso effect' which for months has helped propel the PP over the PSOE, even though it has caused domestic conflicts
They hope to consolidate their position in the national leadership and restore the status of the hegemonic party through the apprehension of Ciudadanos voters. Vox will not be able to take them down. The parliamentary math resulting from 13F could lead to a coalition government. Casado will require the far-right formation in order to expel Pedro Sanchez from Moncloa, it is certain. Castilla y Leon could be used as a laboratory to test the formula.
Citizens are left with no margin. The outcome of these elections will determine the future formation of Ines arrimadas. Also, the results of Andalusia's elections, which were held last year after it was expelled from the autonomous governments in Murcia, Madrid, Castilla y Leon. They could endanger the survival of the liberal party if they take into account the polls which give them only one or two seats. If they do not get a good result, the oranges will be in a weak position at the general election. They will have little institutional weight and could disappear.
They are in a complicated situation with incessant flight charges and half the active members it had a whole year ago. Also, they face hostile takeover attempts from the PP. They recognize the importance of everything and are ready to sacrifice the rest to help their cause.
Although the electoral outlooks for the left are not encouraging, Podemos's start from such a low point that anything that can improve it - it only managed two attorneys in 2019- - will be seen as a huge victory in the purple ranks. They will be going to the polls this time in coalition with Alianza Verde and Izquierda Unida, the new environmentalist party. Although the party's leadership doesn't expect to make much noise, they believe that Alberto Garzon’s controversy over the macro-farms would strengthen their speech.
They are also confident that Yolanda Diaz's landing in the campaign will help them. Her visit will be one. Vice President wants to distinguish the negative results on 13-F and the political project she hopes to create. She doesn't want any bump to ruin her national projection or weigh down her large forehead before it is born.
Vox is ready to place his third spade at Flanders. After breaking into Madrid's autonomous parliaments, it is now able to support the popular executives Juanma Moreno, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, and the Cortes de Castilla y Leon.
Vox will be able to claim that it is part of the Government Alfonso Fernandez Manueco if the polls are successful. It will become the test bench for the first Executive in a coalition with the PP. Abascal's role will be crucial for this. He will work hard in the campaign alongside Juan Garcia-Gallardo (his unknown candidate), just as he did in Catalonia with Ignacio Garriga.
Castilla y Leon marks the first election appointment for Emptied Spain. The results of the elections will determine the next steps for the national collective platform in its decision to be an option at the polls during subsequent electoral processes. It will be presented in four provinces (Burgos Palencia Valladolid, Salamanca, and Valladolid) on February 13, and it will also be known as Soria!Ya! This province. The first test will be based on their ability to mobilize in large, uninhabited rural areas.
They could be the next regional government's key, even though the polls don't show them having very optimistic views - they give them only one to two seats in Soria and two for the Union of the Leonese People. They warn that a support to the right or left would be costly, and they will not give it if necessary.