Donald Trump may announce the end of the organization islamic State (EI), the world has not finished with the group of jihadist. Nearly a year after the fall of Baghouz, the last redoubt belonging to the EI in Syria, the soldiers of the caliphate, still represent a "significant risk" to the 500 us forces still present on-site. Here is the report drawn up by Sean O Donnel, inspector general of the Pentagon, on the occasion of the publication of the quarterly report by the international coalition antidjihadiste in Syria and Iraq. According to the u.s. official, the threat would come before any of the prisoners jihadists detained in jails of north-eastern Syria by the democratic Forces in syria (SDF) to predominantly kurdish, as well as the families of the fighters gathered in camps for the displaced in the same region.
there was barely a week, the Center for analysis of terrorism (CAT) revealed that 13 women jihadists of French nationality were escapees of the camps of al-Hol and al Ain Hissa, among which Hayat Boumeddienne, the wife of Amedy Coulibaly, the perpetrator of the hostage Hyper Hide from Paris in January 2015, which had five deaths (three clients, one employee, the terrorist). "Thirteen women, representing 10% of jihadists French, who have not renounced their ideology can be found today in the nature ", points out to the Point Jean-Charles Brisard, chairman of the CAT, which counts in total 120 French-held Syria. "These escapees do not have the benefit of organized networks of exfiltration, but individual and family," he adds. They benefit from the fact that the authorities kurds are unable to ensure the safety of these camps, which are in fact pregnant open to the sky where the prisoners are waiting. "
"to Force the walls of the prisons"
In total, nearly 100,000 displaced people are clustered in a dozen of camps in the north-east of Syria, including 12 000 foreign nationals – 4 000 women and 8 000 children – members of families of the jihadists. As for the prisoners, they are about 12 000 jihadists, including 2 500 to 3 000 foreigners (among which 60 French), divided in twenty prisons. In a video message released to the public in September 2019, a month before his death, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, the former leader of Daech, called on its supporters to "force the walls of the prison" for free. A month later, a hundred of detainees jihadists took advantage of the chaos caused by the intervention of Turkey against the HOMELESS to escape to. "The risk of dispersal of the detainees, some of whom wish to return to France illegally, is now becoming a reality," stresses Jean-Charles Brisard.
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For the time being, the France refuses to repatriate its prisoners, accepting the return to "case by case" as a few unaccompanied children or orphans (they are more than a total of 250 French children imprisoned in Syria, editor's NOTE). In the Face of a public opinion largely hostile to the return of jihadists French, Paris decided in January 2019 for the discreet transfer of 11 fighters of the EI in Iraq, where they have been sentenced to death by the justice of iraq. Since then, Baghdad no longer accepts any French prisoner. As for the forces, the kurds of Syria, in the face of the refusal of the western chancelleries of taking care of their citizens, they are committed to the idea of the judge on the spot.
"the Risk of mass escapes"
however, the situation inside the camps is all the more critical that the health conditions, already summary, there are abruptly degraded after the main axis of delivery of humanitarian aid to the border iraq-syria has been cut off in the month of January, Russia has opposed the renewal of a UN resolution authorizing it. Since then, at least two mutinies broke out in march and may in the prison of Ghouiran, which is home to 5,000 prisoners in the city of Hassaké. According to the quarterly report of the international coalition anti-EI, there exists today a "risk of mass escapes" of detainees jihadists.
The organization islamic State in dates. © AFPMais the threat of Daech operates already outside the prison. Taking advantage of the pandemic Covid-19, the organisation jihadist has significantly increased its attacks on the territories of syria and iraq, where she had once proclaimed its " caliphate ". In Syria, the group, which still has cells in the vast desert located between the provinces of Homs (west), Deir ez-Zor (east), would be responsible for at least 33 attacks by improvised explosive devices (IED), according to the High Commissioner of the UN for human rights. Occurred in the north and east of the country, they were directed mainly against the syrian army and the forces of the kurds. However, these last have suspended their operations against the AR to focus on the fight against the coronavirus, says the us report. Officially, the north-east of Syria has been relatively unaffected by the virus, who would not have done that a handful of victims.
"Evolution of the quality of the attacks"
The attacks of Daech have also increased since the month of April in Iraq's neighbour. Explosions of ieds in the side of the road, firing on convoys of police, iraqi soldiers or militiamen are shiite, and the assassination of representatives of the State, the jihadists have struck in the provinces of salah al-din, Kirkuk, and Diyala, north of Baghdad. "We are seeing an increase in the qualitative level of the attacks carried out by the EI in Iraq," explains the Point Sam Heller, an independent analyst advisor to the International Crisis Group. "While the group emphasized previously, the asymmetric combat, he is now also engaged in more attacks supported and directed against the iraqi security forces. "
Cited in the report, James Jeffrey, the special envoy of the United States for the international coalition against Daech, said that the group jihad remains a threat as long as that organization " terrorist insurgent, with some 14 000 to 18 000 terrorists between Syria and Iraq ". But the us central command assures us : Daech is " not back ". Refugees in the vast provinces desert of Al-Anbar and Nineveh, on the border with Syria, the soldiers of the caliphate benefit clearly of a security vacuum created by the pandemic, which has killed at least 169 people dead in Iraq : the iraqi forces are more occupied with the implementation of the containment, and the troops of the international coalition anti-Daech is simply pulled out of the country.
" The departure of the trainers of the international coalition will not have a short-term effect on the fight against the EI,', stresses, however, Sam Heller. "But it is not impossible the jihadists have made their decision based on this new situation. "On the 19th of march, in a lead editorial entitled" The worst nightmare of the Crusaders " and published in its weekly newsletter Al-Naba, Daech has called on his followers to take advantage of the pandemic to hit the enemy.