According to the Federal Government's Expert Council, Germany's climate targets for 2030 are in great danger. "At the moment it doesn't look as if we can achieve the goals," said deputy chairwoman Brigitte Knopf on Friday in Berlin at the presentation of a report on the status of German climate policy. "We will definitely not achieve the climate targets for 2030 if we keep going like this," said Knopf. Germany wants to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by at least 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990.
Two days before the start of the next world climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, the Expert Council for Climate Issues presented its report on the status of German climate policy to the government and the Bundesrat. The independent panel of five experts published this so-called two-year report, which is stipulated in the Climate Protection Act, for the first time; further reports will then follow every two years.
14-fold increase in traffic needed
"The amount of reduction achieved every year should more than double compared to the historical development of the last 10 years," explained Councilor Thomas Heimer with a view to Germany's emissions of greenhouse gases. "In the industrial sector, a 10-fold increase in the average reduction quantity per year would be necessary, and in the case of transport even a 14-fold increase."
Between 2000 and 2021, the emission of climate-damaging gases in Germany fell by around 27 percent, adjusted for temperature, the committee stated. Half of this reduction goes to the account of the energy industry. There have also been developments towards a more economical use of energy.
However, these would be counteracted by greater use and consumption. "Efficiency gains were thwarted, for example, by general economic growth, larger living space or increased transport services," explained Chairman Hans-Martin Henning. The number of vehicles has increased steadily. "Of course that's counterproductive." If someone buys an electric car with a better environmental balance as a second car and continues to use their old car next to it, "nothing is gained at all".
Speed urgently needed for renewables
A forced expansion of renewable energies is now necessary. In the case of solar systems and wind farms at sea, it will be difficult to achieve the goals, said Knopf, while things are looking better for wind farms on land. Devices such as heaters that work with fossil fuels would have to be replaced, but people should also change their behavior, warns the expert council.
However, the experts expressed doubts that adjusting the previous course would be sufficient. When looking at the past twenty years, it is questionable whether future climate goals can be achieved without a paradigm shift, said Henning. One possibility is about hard limits for emissions that are still permissible. A trading system could then be set up for the quantities still permitted. For politicians, it is then a matter of organizing the consumption that is still possible in such a way that the economy and society can cope with it.
Environmental organizations saw their criticism of the federal government strengthened. "At the COP27, which begins on Sunday, Chancellor (Olaf) Scholz will have to explain to the other countries why Germany is not taking more decisive action against the climate crisis," explained Christiane Averbeck, Chair of the Climate Alliance Germany, with a view to the World Climate Conference. the so-called COP. Incentives alone are not enough for the climate-friendly conversion, emphasized Tobias Austrup from Greenpeace. In addition to the expansion of renewable energies, it is important: "Oil and gas heating systems must disappear from basements sooner, diesel and petrol engines from the streets more quickly."
Communication from the Federal Environment Agency expert council on German climate targets
