for nearly three years now, the countries of the southern Africa monitor, with an increased attention to the signals of islamic terrorism in the region. While a virtual summit of heads of State of countries of the African development Community (SADC) is scheduled for this Monday, August 17, the analysts hope that this presence jihadist will be at the heart of the meeting, far more than the Mozambique must take the rotating presidency of the regional organization. Beyond this new appointment, a start is expected on the part of the organization so that the need for military intervention in the north of Mozambique is becoming increasingly evident. For the Institute for the study of safety (ISS) based in Pretoria, South Africa, the SADC should "emergency help Mozambique to stem the rebellion "violent".
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Towards a paradigm shift ?
For the third time this year, the jihadists of the group of insurgents of Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa, more commonly known as Al-Shabaab (the youth), affiliated to the group islamic State (EI), have attacked the small town of Mocimboa da Praia, and took Wednesday of its strategic port for the huge liquefied natural gas project (LNG) in the region, one of the biggest investments in Africa, in which participates, for example, the French group Total. This event is in the process of opening the eyes of the leaders of the SADC ?
The province of Cabo Delgado, the northernmost of the country, bordering Tanzania, is the target from October 2017 to jihadist attacks, in which more than 1 500 people dead and 250,000 displaced. The mozambican government has come to recognise the presence of these jihadists on its soil in April 2020.
In may, the division responsible for the security of the SADC has pledged to help Mozambique to address the rebellion, the jihadist, one of the greatest challenges that Africa has faced in recent years. "It really is time for the SADC to intervene," said the activist, Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Centre for democracy and development in Mozambique, based in Maputo.
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Mercenaries, russians, and south africans
Until now, Mozambique has made use of private security companies to try to regain control of its northern regions, which the Russian Wagner, and the south african Dyck Advisory Group, according to several specialists of security issues. But "the military action of the government, including the use of mercenaries, did not put an end to the attacks," notes the ISS.
Thursday, during a preparatory meeting for the regional summit, the minister mozambican foreign Affairs, Veronica Macamo, said, "if terrorism and violent extremism were not contained, they could spread" to the whole southern Africa.
In 2008, the SADC has established a brigade ready to respond in situations of conflict which has, for the last time been deployed in Lesotho by 2017, following the murder of the chief of the army of this small kingdom. If it was sent to Mozambique, it would be the first confrontation of this brigade with the jihadists. "It does not appear that the SADC to go for the moment in addition to the declarations display ", told AFP the analyst Jasmine Opperman, doubting the ability of military and financial support from the regional organization to send forces in the province of Cabo Delgado.
as A regional power such as South Africa, which could send troops in neighbouring mozambique, is too busy currently to use his army to enforce the measures aimed at combating the pandemic of sars coronavirus. She is also involved in up to a thousand soldiers to the UN mission in the eastern democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
And, even if regional forces were deployed in Mozambique, this would not be "as a cautery on a wooden leg" if, in parallel, you can't attack "in the short or medium term" under-development, and the frustrations of the populations that fuel the jihadist groups, according to Ms. Opperman.
Gold, every attack on Mocimboa da Praia is an obstacle to the development of the LNG project, which, according to experts, could transform the impoverished country into a kind of Qatar african and one of the first exporters of natural gas. The port is essential to the supply of the project, located approximately 60 km to the north, on the peninsula of Afungi.
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