According to Monday's study by an international team of scientists, climate change made the recent heat wave that decimated Pakistan and India more likely. They say this is a glimpse at the region's future.
The World Weather Attribution group looked at historical weather data to determine that long, intense heat waves that affect large areas of land are rare events that occur once a century. The current global warming caused by human-caused climate changes has made these heat waves 30x more likely.
Arpita Mondal (climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai) said that if global warming rises to 2 degrees Celsius (3.66 degrees Fahrenheit), then heat waves such as this could occur twice a century, and up to once every five year.
Mondal stated, "This is a sign for things to come."
These results are conservative. A Meteorological Office analysis last week found that the heat wave was 100 times more likely due to climate change. It is also likely that such scorching temperatures will reoccur every three or four years.
The World Weather Attribution analysis, however, is different because it attempts to determine how global warming has made certain aspects of the heatwave more likely, such as its length and impact on the region. Friederike Otto from the Imperial College of London was also part of the study. "The real result is probably somewhere in between ours and (U.K.] Met Office result for climate change increased this incident."
The heat wave's devastation is what is certain. India experienced the hottest March since records began in 1901. April was also the warmest in Pakistan and other parts of India. The consequences have been extensive and cascading. A glacier burst at Pakistan sending floods downstream. India banned exports to countries suffering from food shortages caused by Russia's war in Ukraine. It also led to an increase in India's electricity demand that depleted its coal reserves. This resulted in severe power shortages that affected millions.
There is also the effect on human health. The two countries have seen at least 90 deaths, though the lack of death registration in the region means that there is probably an undercount. According to The Associated Press' analysis of data published by Columbia University's climate school, South Asia is most affected by heat stress. More than a third, or more, of the world's population lives in India.
Experts agree that the heat wave highlights the urgent need to adapt to the harmful effects of climate change. Heat stress is most dangerous to children and the elderly. However, its effects are even more severe for the poor, who often live in hot slums and may not have access either cooling or water.
Rahman Ali, 42 years old, is a ragpicker from an eastern suburb in the Indian capital New Delhi. He collects waste from residents' homes and sorts it to sell what can be salvaged. It is hard work, and the heat in his tin-roofed house in the crowded slum provides little relief from the heat.
"What can we accomplish?" The father-of-two stated, "If I don't work, we won't eat."
These are some Indian cities that tried to find solutions. Ahmedabad, a western city in India, was the first to develop a heat wave plan. Its 8.4 million population was included in the plan. It includes an early warning system to inform residents and health professionals about heat waves. Administrations are empowered to keep parks open to allow people to shade. Schools can also be provided with information so they can adjust their schedules.
It has also tried to cool its roofs using different materials that absorb heat differently. They want to create roofs that reflect sunlight and lower indoor temperatures. This is done by using reflective paints or whites, and cheaper materials such as dried grass.
