Covid-19 : The seasonality of the virus does not depend on the behaviour of the French - The Point

The virus is not dead. Last week, seven departments have recorded an incidence rate above the threshold of awareness (established at 10 cases per 100 000 inhabi

Covid-19 : The seasonality of the virus does not depend on the behaviour of the French - The Point

The virus is not dead. Last week, seven departments have recorded an incidence rate above the threshold of awareness (established at 10 cases per 100 000 inhabitants) : Mayenne, Vosges, Brittany, Val-d'oise, france, Haut-Rhin, Paris and Seine-Saint-Denis. In point weekly, public Health, France, emphasised that the number of patients with a positive Covid-19 continued to grow. "This trend indicates that our habits recent promote the circulation of the virus for several weeks already," details the Directorate-general of health.

For the scientific council, the arrival of a second wave in the fall appears increasingly likely. "An intensification of the circulation of Sars-CoV-2 in the northern hemisphere at a future date more or less distant (a few months, and in particular to the approach of the winter) is" extremely likely ", warn the experts. In Europe, the virus has declined with the arrival of summer temperatures, what is in question is the seasonality of the epidemic. Professor Jean-François Toussaint, professor of physiology at the University of Paris and former president of the States-general of the prevention, wants to be realistic : none of the waves promised has not occurred and the seasonality of the epidemic, if it occurs, will have nothing to do with the behaviour of the French, but with what is happening now in the southern hemisphere.

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The Point : The multiplication of cases in several regions of France, should it be of concern ?

Jean-François Toussaint : An epidemic reveals his dangerousness by the number of people it kills. However, the number of serious cases and deaths continues to decline. Since a month, there are more than two people in the icu in Mayenne : the epidemic wave has passed in France. People who are infected are increasingly young people asymptomatic.

In France, the virus is gone ?

The virus is still there, but it kills 100 times less. In Europe, the decay is everywhere continuous, and the current outbreak has nothing to do with what we faced in march and April. All the countries of the Union follow the same dynamic, and France is no exception to the rule.

A second wave is unstoppable ?

There is no way to determine if it déferlera or not on Europe, but there is, for the moment, not the slightest sign. We could depend on seasonal variations, but, in this case, it does no good to blame the French or the guilty.

The epidemic continues in South America : it is therefore possible for the virus to be passed back and forth between the two hemispheres. We need to be attentive to its dependence on the environment and adopt responses that are comparable to those of asian countries (Korea, Japan, Taiwan...), the only ones to have been able to bring the epidemic under control.

But if the second wave is not health per se, it is a collapse international that prepares. WHO have not anticipated the emergence of these vulnerabilities, the united Nations warn on effects that will be far superior to the damage of the epidemic. Famine, malnutrition, unemployment, poverty, the consequences of a containment global inadequate will be catastrophic for hundreds of millions of people and will deprive also the medicine of the resources which it requires.

Was it right to impose the protective mask earlier ?

The mask was necessary when the pandemic was the most severe : in February, march and April. We're more in this phase. If the contaminations are inevitable, without a doubt, would it be better to immunize at this time in January, because our individual capacity, immune defense, in particular, are more important in summer than in winter.

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The only effective solution to combat the Covid-19 remains the discovery of a vaccine ?

There is no certainty that the vaccines being tested will cause an effective protection. For all that, it is necessary to avoid falling back in a panic fuelled by the parisianisme of the scientific authorities and the media. In such a period, everyone should be able to resume a normal behavior, while maintaining the training of the gestures barriers, the only barriers against contamination. If the epidemic comes back with the same virulence (it resulted in 1 of 417 deaths in a single day April 7), then it will be back on strong measures ; but France is currently recording less than 10 deaths per day, and, contrary to what one is trying to make us believe, these deaths have nothing to do with any release, nor with the déconfinement nor with the Feast of music.

Updated Date: 27 July 2020, 05:33

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