Second wave of the Covid-19 : the real numbers - The Point

The health authorities in the making for the last several days, worrying signals are fears of a second wave of Covid-19 on the French territory before the end o

Second wave of the Covid-19 : the real numbers - The Point

The health authorities in the making for the last several days, worrying signals are fears of a second wave of Covid-19 on the French territory before the end of the summer. Jerome Solomon, director-general of Health, had entrusted to the Figaro, in the beginning of the week. Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the scientific council responsible to advise the government on the outbreak of coronavirus, was repeated on July 9 in The World. Many health professionals fear a new engorgement of the emergency services in the coming weeks, if the French do not respect the actions barriers and rules of distancing physical recommended. Head of unit of respiratory infections of public Health in France, the epidemiologist Daniel Lévy-Bruhl describes the epidemiological situation of France on the eve of major holiday departures.

The Point : The authorities have repeated that a second wave of infections Covid-19 is in the offing as early as this summer. Developments in statistics that you look at you do they fear a rebound of the epidemic in the short term ?

Daniel Lévy-Bruhl : We begin to be concerned. We note an undeniable thrill that can not fail to alert us. The movement of the Covid continues in our country. During the week of 29 June to 5 July, the number of cases of Sars-CoV-2 registered was 3 797, compared to 3 406 in the previous week (an increase of + 11.5 percent, editor's NOTE). The consultations made by SOS doctors have also increased by 41 % compared to the previous week, with 1 523 acts carried out for suspicion of Covid against 1 082 eight days earlier. It is important to say that we are still very far from the figures for the period of march or April, but we remain very vigilant, and all of the regional agencies of health and also for identifying potential signals of alarm.

What regions are particularly affected ?

In the ten regions, we note a tendency to increase suspicion of the diagnosis of Covid-19 through the data, the associations SOS-Doctors. This is the case of the Île-de-France, where the increase is more important with + 22 % of cases in one week, in front of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (+ 15 %), Centre-Val de Loire region, the Hauts-de-France, Brittany, Occitania, the region Paca, the Countries of the Loire, the Grand Is and the New region of Aquitaine.

The cluster of the Mayenne, it seems particularly threatening ?

This department is at the centre of our attention. Between the 25th and the 30th of June, Mayenne, the number of new positive cases at Covid-19 is, in effect, increased from 54 to 109, and 109 to 219 between 30 June and 6 July. A rapid increase in cases has prompted the authorities to organize a plan of mass screening. Here we are in what we call a "cluster community" where we're seeing cases of infection outside of the first circle, located in Laval. But things are still under control. We also follow very close to another cluster in Normandy, near Rouen.

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How many tests are done each week ?

today more than 300 000 tests virological are made per week. This increase in the number of tests may also explain, in part, the increase in the number of infections that we reported previously.

The rate of reproduction of the virus, the famous "R actual" (or R), which diagnoses the rebound was crossed back above 1 at the national level. This means that the virus is again on the offensive. May it go down in the coming weeks or risk-t-he, on the contrary, to soar ?

This will depend on the vigilance of our fellow citizens. Several surveys have shown that they were less attention than at the déconfinement in respect of the gestures barriers. If the R is now, on average, 1.05 in metropolitan France, compared to 0.9 last week, this does not mean we should panic, but it still shows a new dynamic : it is the trembling of which I spoke to you at the beginning.

Where this rate reached the highest level ?

outside of Guyana and Mayotte, where we are still in the epidemic phase (even if, in Mayotte, we note that the epidemic is in decline), it is the Mayenne, which displays the highest rate of reproduction with an R of 1.52.

This rate R is the indicator that you monitor the most ?

This index gives an idea of the rate of spread of the disease, but it is essentially a warning signal that leads the cells of public Health of France in region and the regional agencies of health to investigate locally the causes of a possible increase in the number of cases.

The sword of Damocles always hangs over our heads.

The scenarios of reconfinement that we observe overseas are they reviewed by your services ?

such A decision is the weapon useful that it would be used only as a last resort. Everything must be done, of course, to avoid having to get there. For the time being, such a scenario is not on the agenda.

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what time can we fear ?

It is impossible to predict, because this will depend, in large part, to the respect of the measures, barriers, and social distancing adopted by the French during the summer.

How many clusters have been identified to date ?

333 since the déconfinement... to which must be added 104 long-term care, but only 68 are currently under investigation. This means that all the others are more active.

More than fifteen days after the Feast of music, can we say that we are paying the price of release that we observed on 21 June.

No data do not let us today think that the music Festival has been causing a resurgence of the virus or the resumption of the circulation of the Covid-19. I express this with all the scientific reserve that is required. But the sword of Damocles always hangs over our heads. The virus is not gone. He is always there. We must learn to live with and find a balance by taking an almost normal life but keeping in mind all of the protection measures that are needed for ourselves and our surroundings. Including on our holiday destinations.

Updated Date: 11 July 2020, 04:33

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