30 265. It is, as at July 31, 2020, the official report of the epidemic of coronavirus in France, according to figures released by public Health, France. But what is the true state of the coronavirus in france ? It is impossible to know at the present time and will most likely wait at least until the end of the year to have a more fine-grained, tells the Sunday Newspaper. If at the beginning of the epidemic, is the lack of communication on the death at home, or those that have occurred in the long-term care Facility that has been identified, the problem is different now.
To know the mortality real is linked to the coronavirus in France, it will be necessary to examine all death certificates on which are the causes. It is a task that is normally assigned to the epidemiology Centre on the medical causes of death (CépiDc) Inserm. For clarity, each death certificate must be scanned and then encoded according to the standards of the world health Organization (WHO). However, this is where the shoe pinches. In France, three people are charged with this task, with not less than 600 000 deaths over a calendar year. In Germany, they are, by comparison, 50 to treat 950 000 deaths. As a result, if public Health France indicates that the sort will not be completed before the end of 2020 ", Clear Morgand, the deputy director of the CépiDc, shows his pessimism in the face of this deadline. Denouncing a "lack of staff" yelling ", she believes that we " don't have enough people to produce the data in a reasonable time frame ".
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The digital solution
Thus, the mortality data for 2017, 2018 and 2019 are not yet finalised. In response to claims of Clear Morgand for help, it is opposed to an end not to receive, in the name of a shortage of means. The electronic certification of death, which greatly facilitates the work, is a work that moves forward, but only 20 % of the cases, points to the manager, who has decided to make her apron. This time, however, is not unique in its kind. The most telling example in France is without doubt one of the 2003 heat wave. The first assessment, prepared in 2003, there are 15 000 additional deaths. But, as stressed in the World, a study of the Inserm published in 2007 will finally the figure of 19 000.
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In the case of the Covid-19, the danger is that of an overstatement, " says Claire Morgand, with the JDD. Heart attack or STROKE could be attributed to the epidemic lack of precise analysis of data. "We will not perhaps ever, reliable and comparable information at the international level, grieves-t-it. It is disturbing to be blind or late mortality, because it informs us the state of health of the population. "In the short term, these data could also be used to improve health monitoring. All except one detail, as fears of a second wave multiply.
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