Federal meteorologists predict a record-breaking seventh consecutive Atlantic hurricane season.
Tuesday's prediction by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was that there would be 14 to 21 named storms in the Atlantic, six to ten becoming hurricanes and three or six turbo-charging to major hurricanes with winds exceeding 110 mph. These predictions exceed the 30-year-old average of 14 named hurricanes, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
In the past two years, the National Hurricane Center ran out names for Atlantic storms. There were a record 30 storms named in 2020 and 21 in 2017. The United States has seen more Category 4/5 hurricane landfalls over the last five years than any 50-year period.
The hurricane season this year "is going to look similar to last year" and, given the fact that one storm can dramatically impact your life, if it doesn't, you are planning to fail, Rick Spinrad, NOAA Administrator, told The Associated Press Tuesday. This outlook can be taken to the bank to protect your property.
Matthew Rosencrans is the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. He said that every weather factor pointed towards a busier season. He highlighted a long-running trend of more storms in Atlantic and an active monsoon in West Africa. A La Nina, the natural and occasionally cooling of parts in the equatorial Pacific that causes weather changes worldwide, and higher than normal ocean temperatures. These are all factors scientists believe are stoked due to climate change.
NOAA has been endorsed by several outside experts who agree that the Atlantic is ripe for another active hurricane season. According to them, La Nina decreases wind shear which could lead to storms being decapitated. According to Rosencrans, the warmer water (about half a degree warmer (0.3 Celsius) than last year's storm-forming regions) acts as hurricane fuel. Artificial cooling has been removed from the Atlantic by reducing the amount of pollution particles. A new study shows that this is linked to the increasing number of storms.
Last week, President Joe Biden warned America about another "tough hurricane season".
"We are seeing these storms occur more often. In a New York City press conference, Deanne Criswell, FEMA Director, stated that they are lasting longer. NOAA reports that 13 people died in Hurricane Ida in New York City, with 11 others drowning in flood-prone basements. It's also the 10th anniversary Superstorm Sandy's death. This downgraded hurricane caused massive flooding in New York.
Criswell stated, "We have seen such a dramatic shift in the type weather events that could possibly be attributed to climate change."
NOAA stated that there is a 65% chance of a "above-normal" hurricane season. There's also a 25% chance of a normal season. Only one in 10 chances for an unusually quieter season.
Accumulated Cyclone energy index, or ACE, is a key indicator that measures the strength and duration of storms. Rosencrans stated that this year could see as high as twice what has been normal since 1950. This calculation is used to determine what season is average and what is above average.
Since 1950, the average ACE is just shy 100. The last six years ranged from 132 up to 225 in 2017.
Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University seasonal forecaster and hurricane researcher, stated that six consecutive years of above-average weather is a record. He believes that this record will be extended to seven years in the future.
Brian McNoldy, University of Miami hurricane researcher, said that it was quite strange to have six consecutive seasons of so active.
NOAA's hurricane season predictions are in line with the predictions of ten meteorological teams (government, university, and private) that have provided their predictions. Their average prediction is 20 named storms with eight becoming hurricanes or major hurricanes.
La Nina is a unique effect on the Pacific, and conditions are usually opposite. This month NOAA forecast a calmer Pacific storm season than usual.
