Donald Trump is considered the epitome of impermanence. But there is one constant in his life: a series of scandals and lawsuits. Remarkable: The Republican cannot be beaten by this. "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and I wouldn't lose voters," he said in the 2016 presidential campaign. The much-cited sentence describes the astonishing Trump phenomenon in a pointed way: he has managed to survive one political affair after another for decades, to wriggle out of countless legal disputes and investigations without disappearing into political insignificance or ever being prosecuted . At least so far.

The 76-year-old is now threatened with an end to his winning streak. Because he may soon go down in US history as the first ex-president to be charged with a criminal offense. In New York, investigations are underway against him in connection with hush money payments to a porn actress. And observers have been expecting indictments for days - Trump himself too. He rants about it daily on his Twitter counterpart, Truth Social.

However, it is questionable whether Trump would actually be sentenced in the end and thus face his political end. Whether he would have to be in prison for that, even more so. His former lawyer Michael Cohen had to go to prison because of the payments – proving Trump committed a crime here should be much more difficult. And even as a convicted felon, the Republican could theoretically run as his party's candidate in the next presidential election in November 2024.

Scandals: Trump is in his own league

The New York case shows once again that Trump is in a league of his own when it comes to scandals. This is not about the moral baggage that a porn actress claims she had sex with Trump shortly after his wife gave birth to their son in 2006 - which Trump denies. The allegation has been floating around for years, without it having prevented Trump from becoming his party's presidential candidate the first time. The allegation is not that he paid hush money to the said porn star. Trump publicly admitted this in 2018 - which would have long since meant the end of his political career for many others. No, it is about the possibly unfair booking of these payments.

By German standards, it is difficult to imagine that a politician could even stand as a candidate for chancellor if he had been faced with such a delicate accusation for years. In the case of Trump, it is one of many. Various women have accused him of sexual harassment in the past, including rape. Trump rejected all allegations and continued his career undisturbed.

Other gaffes didn't hurt him either: During the 2016 election campaign, an old audio recording was made public in which Trump made lewd comments about women - and that he could touch them anywhere, including between the legs. The Americans elected him President anyway.

Unprecedented level of investigation

Trump then survived an unprecedented level of investigations in the White House: First, a special investigator spent two years investigating whether Trump's campaign team made collusion with representatives of Russia and whether Trump later, when he was president, obstructed the investigations of the judiciary. For Trump, the investigation had no consequences.

After that, he went down in history as the first US President against whom two impeachment proceedings were instituted. In the first, he faced charges of abuse of power and obstruction of congressional investigations. The second was about his supporters' attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Trump was acquitted both times, thanks to the majority of his Republicans in the Senate.

Anyone who thought that Trump's futile campaign against defeat in the 2020 election and the outbreak of violence on the Capitol had disqualified himself from any higher office, at least politically, was wrong too. In polls, Trump is still at the forefront of potential Republican presidential candidates for 2024.

Trump is a master at using every scandal, every investigation, every legal charge to fuel his supporters and raise funds. He speaks of a "witch hunt," of politically motivated attempts to silence him. His die-hard followers feel encouraged in their zeal by this.

No defection from Trump

And in the Republican party establishment? There, none of the scandals and no political escapades of the past few years caused party leaders to break away from Trump - not even the previously unthinkable attack on US democracy. Only the debacle of the Republicans in the congressional elections in autumn 2022, which Trump helped to cause - i.e. the fear for their own political power - triggered major withdrawal movements and led to several prominent Republicans now taking a position openly against Trump.

Even before his time in the White House, in his decades as a real estate entrepreneur, Trump was confronted with tons of lawsuits and investigations against him and his companies, for example because of allegedly dubious business practices or possible tax offenses. That's still the case today. But Trump has never been personally involved. Only others from his environment had to go behind bars.

In September, New York prosecutors filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Trump, his company and three of his children, among others. They are said to have manipulated the company value of the Trump Organization on a large scale and for years. But this is only a matter of financial demands.

A touch of the dubious

So for many years Trump has persistently had a whiff of dubiousness, without this having stopped his political rise to the highest office in the USA. But now he seems legally cornered like never before - not only because of the possible charges in New York. A special counsel appointed by the US Department of Justice is investigating Trump's handling of classified government documents. After leaving the White House, Trump kept a large number of government documents in his private estate Mar-a-Lago in Florida, including many documents with the highest classification level. Trump could have committed a criminal offense - and according to some lawyers, if he is charged and convicted, he could possibly also disqualify himself for the presidency.

The special counsel is also investigating Trump's role in the Capitol attack and efforts to rig the 2020 election. Here, too, some experts see risks for Trump and his re-election ambitions, which differ from the New York case: According to the constitution, those who have participated in a rebellion against the government are excluded from public office.