Fragile truce in Eastern Ukraine: Minsk agreement on the Dump?

On the 27. July should start on the line of Contact in Donbass a "full and comprehensive" ceasefire. Earlier, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, Volodymyr

Fragile truce in Eastern Ukraine: Minsk agreement on the Dump?

On the 27. July should start on the line of Contact in Donbass a "full and comprehensive" ceasefire. Earlier, the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, Volodymyr Selenskyj and Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation, the agreement of the Trilateral contact group consisting of traders of Ukraine, Russia and the organization for security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE) welcomed. Selenskyjs office informed, moreover, that the ceasefire was a precondition for the implementation of the 2015 negotiated the Minsk peace agreement.

But only a few hours after the start of the truce, the Ukrainian side said that the Pro-Russian separatists they would have already injured again to attack. Then it was the name of the self-proclaimed "people's Republic of Donetsk", - the statement of the Ukrainian military was a "provocation".

Since the beginning of the war, in the year 2014, there were over 20 weapons to rest. But not held. Therefore, there was also this time, on the evening of the 27. July, again a Demo in Kiev on the Initiative of the party "European solidarity" of the Ex-President of Petro Poroshenko. The organizers of the ceasefire a step in the direction of "surrender". According to media, several hundred people took part in the action.

Minsk agreement in danger?

Despite the peaceful rhetoric of Kiev expresses, more recently, doubts as to the Minsk agreements. Thus, the Ukrainian Deputy Prime Oleksij Resnikow, the contact group said the agreements would be the reality in the East of Ukraine reflect. In his Blog on the Website of the Atlantic Council says: "The 2015-defined front line is obsolete, since today an additional 1,800 square Ukrainian country miles are occupied by Russian. Such anomalies deprive the whole Minsk process his logic."

in Addition, the Ukrainian Parliament for October of this year, the country began in mid-July, far in local elections. You will not, however, take place in the Kiev-controlled Parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Russia annexed Crimea. There could be held with the parliamentarians, according to local elections only "after the end of the temporary occupation and of the armed Aggression of Russian Federation against Ukraine".

For Resnikows words, but also for the decision of Parliament, there was criticism from Moscow. During that phone call between Selenskyj and Putin, the Kremlin chief said that Statements of high-ranking Ukrainian representatives would cause "serious concern". Also, the local elections would run counter to the Minsk agreements, which are hazardous to a settlement of the conflict.

Minsk agreement in danger?

Yevhen Magda from Kiev "the Institute of world politics," says that the Ukrainian side is going to quit the Minsk agreements and before the world as the side stand, the search is no diplomatic solution to the conflict. The Parliament's decision but is clear that it is up to autumn to be impossible will be to meet the necessary organisational requirements and security conditions for elections in the Kiev-controlled Parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Mykola Kapitonenko, an expert on Ukrainian "the International centre for policy studies" (ICPS), adds that also from the Russian side, no notice of the Minsk agreements was to be expected. "For Moscow, the consistent implementation of the agreements, according to Russian interpretation, the most convenient and safest scenario for the solution of the conflict in the Donbass", - said the expert. The Kremlin is weighing in a better Position and wants to talk, therefore, more in the expectation that Kiev could one day make large concessions.

Cristina Gherasimov of the German society for foreign policy (DGAP) also notes the planned local elections would mean that the conflict parties had not reached an agreement on the political conditions for the conduct of elections and the guarantee of safety. She pointed out that the recent Kiev's decisions have caused in Moscow, not a particularly sharp reaction. In your opinion, Russia could exploit, but the decisions on occasion, to Kiev, to reproach, to want not in the spirit of the Minsk agreements to cooperate.

President Selenskyj under pressure

Gherasimov does not believe that Kiev's decision, local hold elections, an escalation of the confrontation in the Donbass will cause. He could, however, serve later, in Conjunction with certain events as the cause for an escalation of the situation.

with regard to the ceasefire, is not Mykola Kapitonenko optimistic. He is convinced that the continuation of the conflict with low-intensity offer, each party has certain advantages. "Selenskyj could make concessions, will be a price to pay, to freeze the conflict, to describe this as peace. In the case of a re-integration of those territories, he could pay an even higher price. But it is already clear that the Ukrainian President the Situation is a little different than at the beginning of his term of office, as in the world much connected seemed to be," said the expert.

President Selenskyj could, so Kapitonenko, due to the resistance of a part of the Ukrainian society, showing him the lines which he may in his peace initiatives, not to exceed, in a situation in which his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, was. He was also started with the promise of peace. But circumstances had forced him to move to a more war-like rhetoric.

author: Oleksandr Holubov, (Adapt.:Markian Ostaptschuk)

*published The article "Fragile truce in Eastern Ukraine: Minsk agreement on the Brink?" by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.

Deutsche Welle
Updated Date: 28 July 2020, 14:28

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