the figures are staggering : a contraction in GDP of 12.5 percent in France, 12.8 % in Spain and Italy, 12 000 billions of dollars of loss accruing to the world economy in 2020 and 2021, a downturn of 4.9 % in the year 2020... The international monetary Fund unveiled Wednesday, June 24 new figures to attempt to quantify the global economic recession linked to the pandemic of sars coronavirus.
"A high degree of uncertainty surrounds" these forecasts, recognizes Giat Gopinath, chief economist at the IMF, while the epidemic is not over and that homes are returning to where it seemed to be controlled, as in Germany, where the authorities announced on Tuesday reconfinements local. To date, the pandemic Covid-19 has done more than 477 500 deaths in the world. For the time being, no country escapes the pessimism ambient, starting with China, where is gone, the end of 2019, the deadly virus.
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Recovery in 2021, less sustained than expected
The institution of Washington now sees just 1% growth, far short of the 6.1 per cent achieved in 2019, which was already at a historic low because of the trade war with Washington. The health crisis will hit even harder in the United States, devoid of a social safety net and in spite of the gigantic plans of assistance from the government (some 3 000 billion dollars). The GDP of the first world power will collapse by 8% compared with 5.9 % estimated in April. The recovery in 2021 will be less strong (+ 4.5 per cent).
elsewhere in the world, the figures are catastrophic : - 10.2% for the euro area countries and for the United Kingdom - 9.4% to in the region of Latin America and the Caribbean, 8 percent in South Africa, - 5,8 %, Japan - 4.7% in the Middle East and central Asia or - 4.5% in India. In its report, the Fund acknowledges that the pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 as scheduled." In addition, he warns, " the recovery should be more gradual than expected." In 2021, the global growth is expected to reach 5.4 per cent (- 0.4 per cent). It is about 6.5 percentage points less than projected in January before the spread of the virus in the world.
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The effects on households
The IMF is particularly concerned about the negative impact on low-income households, which " puts at risk the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s." As for the forecasts published in April, "there is a degree of uncertainty higher than usual around this forecast," notes the IMF. Ultimately, this could prove to be worse or better. Best, if there is for example the discovery of a vaccine and if there are government subsidies further, which will accelerate the recovery.
on The contrary, "new wave of infections can hinder the recovery" and quickly firm up the financial conditions, causing a debt overhang ", a summary Gita Gopinath. In economies where rates of infection are decreasing, the recovery is now longer because of the persistence of the detachment physics in the second half. In addition, the recovery is " uneven ", stresses Gita Gopinath. Some sectors, such as retail sales bounce back, others such as the service sectors of " intensive contacts such as hospitality, travel and tourism remain depressed ", she said.
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other risks to the global economy
The countries that are highly dependent on these sectors will be "probably deeply affected for a prolonged period," emphasizes the economist. For economies struggling to contain the pandemic, containment measures continue to weigh. In addition, the possibility of "results alternative is not to be explained only by the evolution of the pandemic," notes the IMF. In fact, the magnitude of the recent rebound in financial markets raises questions as it seems to be "disconnected" changes in the economic outlook.
Finally, beyond the pandemic, other risks threaten the global economy, says the IMF, citing "escalating tensions between the United States and China, ""the fraying of relations between the Organization of the petroleum exporting countries (Opec) and the coalition of oil producers" or " social unrest ".
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