One-third of global grain exports are made to Russia and Ukraine, both of which are under severe economic sanctions due to its invasion of neighbor two week ago.
The conflict's duration and intensity are uncertain. "The likely disruptions in agricultural activities by these two major exporters staple commodities could significantly escalate food insecurity worldwide, when international food and input price levels are already high and vulnerable," Qu Dongyu, director general of the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization, said.
FAO, the U.N. agency noted that Russia is the largest producer of fertilizer and that urea, a key component of fertilizer, has seen its price jump more than threefold over the past 12 months.
It is also uncertain whether Ukraine's June wheat harvest will be possible due to "massive population displacement" which has resulted in a decrease in the number of workers and laborers. Qu stated that it would be difficult to access agricultural fields.
The Black Sea ports of Ukraine are closed and the government has banned exports of wheat and other food products to stop a crisis within its country.
Its major global sunflower oil and corn exports are exempted from the ban. Together, Russia and China supply 52% each of the world's sunflower oils exports. They also supply 19% of the world’s barley, 14% of the wheat and 4% respectively.
Qu stated that it was still not clear if other exporters will be able fill the gap, warning that Canada's wheat stocks are already low.
He said that the United States, Argentina, and other countries producing wheat are likely to reduce exports to maintain domestic supply.
Countries that rely on Ukrainian and Russian wheat will likely increase their imports to add to the pressure. Turkey, Iran, Bangladesh, and Egypt all import 60% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine. Lebanon, Tunisia and Yemen are also heavily dependent on Russia and Ukraine.
People are worried about the recent price rises in food staples in Libya, which has been a scene of civil war for many years.
Salah Alabar (37-year-old father to two), said that bread and flour have increased by approximately 40% in his Benghazi neighbourhood. Sunflower oil is 25% more expensive.
He said, "This presents a challenge for families with minimum wage and middle-class families as the expenses rise across the board."
According to the U.N. agency, simulations show that the global number of people who are undernourished could rise by 8 to 13 millions in 2022-2023, especially in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa.
The potential for unrest may increase with rising prices.
Mohammed Jassim, who runs a small bakery in Baghdad said that there was real concern in Iraq. In fact, there have been demonstrations over the past week in protest at skyrocketing food costs.
He said, "I am a consumer who purchases staples for my company, and I have noticed an increase in sugar and wheat prices of around 20%." "If this continues, I will have to increase my prices and eventually, the average citizen would be the one to pay."
The FAO report warned that shortfalls in sunflower seed and grain exports from Russia and Ukraine could cause a global supply shortage, which could lead to an increase of 8 to 22% in international food and feed prices, rather than the already high levels.
According to its figures, food prices hit an all-time high of $13 per pound in February.
Already, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on global food security. Global wheat and barley prices rose by 31% last year. Rapeseed and sunflower oils prices increased more than 60%. Since the invasion, wheat prices have risen by more than 50%.
According to Italian state TV, supermarkets in Tuscany, Sardinia and Rome have resisted selling sunflower seed oil beyond two containers per customer. Spanish supermarkets are also rationing it.
Italian oil seed importers claim that their supply is already depleted.
