The pulses between powers, the social protests and the gas feed on the instability of the middle East

A century after british and French set the present borders of the middle East, the desert sand and the remains of the battles seem to have covered some of the l

The pulses between powers, the social protests and the gas feed on the instability of the middle East

A century after british and French set the present borders of the middle East, the desert sand and the remains of the battles seem to have covered some of the lines drawn in the agreement Sykes-Picot agreement. The instability is the order which since then governs the region that is the birthplace of the religious identity of half the world and remains a key source of the power that still moves the world. The year 2020 starts with bombardment on the last rebel province of syria, the Idlib, in the umpteenth offensive end of the regime of Damascus and its allies russians after nearly nine years of war. But the hotbeds of regional tension, which never cease to grow in the Gulf around Iran, are moving in addition to the battle for the gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean –a new source of wealth for many countries-- in a shockwave that launches jolts from Turkey to Libya.

Syria, the race of never-ending

A quarter of a million civilians have been displaced by the fighting in the northwest syrian in a desperate escape to Turkey, as Ankara tries to play to Moscow the leading role in regional to that a long time ago that seems to have given up Washington. Defeated the caliphate's territorial Islamic State (ISIS, its acronym in English), though not the insurgency jihadist that has mutated the ISIS, the vision neotomana Recep Tayyip Erdogan has failed to see any limitation to its territorial expansion. The diplomats Mark Sykes and François Georges-Picot the imposed in the name of the victorious powers in the First World War, and the united States was careful to maintain the status quo in the Second. The partial withdrawal of troops ordered last year by the White House has been seen as the banderazo to a new era of pre-eminence in the Kremlin.

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Close to 250,000 civilians fleeing the advance of the syrian Army in Idlib Israel calls the third elections in less than a year, The offensive of the rebel general Hafter puts Libya on the brink of an open war

Vision neotomana Erdogan

Coinciding with the progressive output us of the scene in the middle East, Turkish troops have advanced in northern Syria, where they have seized swathes border –in a return to the legendary silk road to its step-by-Mesopotamia– with the pretext to alienate kurdish militias. The president steam a long time ago to chant the mantra of “zero problems with neighbouring countries” for claiming the historical rights of the sultanate abolished by Atatürk on the fertile plains between the Euphrates and the Tigris that were absorbed by the agreement Sykes-Picot agreement.

With the new year, the platform Leviathan, located off the coast of israeli in Haifa, has begun pumping gas to Jordan and will soon also toward Egypt. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has flown Thursday to Athens to sign with the leaders of the Greek and cypriot birth certificate of a gas pipeline that will connect the major archaeological sites of the Levant to Europe bypassing Turkey, through the waters of Cyprus, Greece and Italy.

The three signatory countries have accelerated their plans to the onslaught of Erdogan to be charged with gas of its announced military support to the Government of National Unity (GNA for its acronym in English) of Libya, recognized by the international community and is seen besieged by the forces of the rebel general Khalifa Hafter, supported by Russia, Egypt and countries of the Gulf. The Turkish Parliament approved on Thursday the dispatch of troops to Libya.

Project of gas pipeline

eastern Mediterranean

ITALY

GREECE

turkey

Mar

Mediterranean

Cyprus

Lebanon

Platform

continental Turkey

Israel

LIBYA

Egypt

500 km

Source: Financial Times, Agency Anadolu.

THE COUNTRY

Project of gas pipeline

eastern Mediterranean

ITALY

GREECE

turkey

Mar

Mediterranean

Cyprus

Lebanon

Platform

continental Turkey

Israel

LIBYA

Egypt

500 km

Source: Financial Times, Agency Anadolu.

THE COUNTRY

Project of gas pipeline

eastern Mediterranean

ITALY

GREECE

turkey

Mar

Mediterranean

Cyprus

Lebanon

Platform

continental

Turkey

Israel

Egypt

LIBYA

500 km

Source: Financial Times, Agency Anadolu.

THE COUNTRY

The pact, signed between Ankara and Tripoli for joint demarcation of the maritime borders of their exclusive economic zones is equivalent to the rapture in favour of Turkey of a broad swath of the eastern Mediterranean affecting the rights of exploitation of Greece and Cyprus. Also concerned about two other key regional actors: Israel, a partner in the project of driving gasística with the looking for a way out of their surplus, and Egypt, whose gas reserves in fields close to the Nile delta are considered as the most important of the Lift.

A new Trojan war in Libya?

the ingredients for a hypothetical reissue of the war of Troy, is expected in soil of Libya, a strategic nation an exporter of hydrocarbons of the southern shore of the Mediterranean, like its neighbour, Algeria. While the first is torn in strife between the east and the west of the country since the fall of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, in 2011, the second is still private game reserve, of the general since independence in 1962, despite the outbreak in the last 10 months of massive popular protests.

The gas which flows out of the Mediterranean, and that, moreover, is about to arrivesde Israel developed in Egypt, the machinery of power in the Government of Abdelfatá al-Sisi, seated for an extended mandate after the coup that overthrew the government in 2013 to the now deceased islamist Mohamed Morsi, the first civilian president and democratically elected. The exmariscal also aims to incorporate the country into the atomic energy with a first manufacturing plant and financing of Russian Dabaa, on the northeastern coast. The protests driven through the social networks by a contractor, self-exiled in Spain are just disturbed Al-Sisi.

what Third Gulf war, with Iran?

Although some analysts argue that since the circumstances for the outbreak of a third Gulf war, this time against Iran, the strategy of deterrence reciprocal effect for the moment.

The Tehran regime ensures that they do not seek a conflict, but also not afraid of an open confrontation. Apparently victorious in the strife between shiites and sunnis, led by Saudi Arabia, which is in the background of the wars of Syria and Yemen, the major powers, with USA at the head, signed the nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. But the sanctions imposed by the Administration of Donald Trump after falling away from the covenant atomic in 2018 have taken a toll on the iranians, who now question the price of the adventures of the expeditionary force of the revolutionary Guards and their allied militia.

arab Spring, second part

The volatility of regional stability has become apparent in recent weeks with the outbreak of social protests in Iran -decisively crushed - and the assault on the supporters of shi'a militia to the grounds of the american Embassy in Baghdad, after the U.S. launched a retaliatory attack because of the impact of lethal projectile at one of its bases in Iraq.

Protesters attempt to storm the american Embassy in Baghdad in the past day 31. AHMED KHALEEL EFE

In a re-emergence of the arab spring, the demonstrations of popular discontent unleashed in Iraq (against corruption) and Lebanon (for a new social contract non-sectarian) can carry way continue forever. The centers of power may offer concessions lampedusianas -as in Algeria, the head half-conscious of Abdelaziz Bouteflika-but not to be glimpsed rollover as experienced in Tunisia now nine years old.

The revolts arise precisely in two territories that, along with Syria, make up the land bridge stretched from Tehran to the Mediterranean. The legislative elections of next month on Iran threaten to give wings to the most conservative sectors of iranian in front of the more moderate president, Hasan Rohani. The brutal repression of the recent social unrest points to a new regression that threatens to have repercussions in countries which orbit in the world's shi'a.

Israel, or the anomaly of the elections chained

The israelis, meanwhile, are becoming the largest electoral experts of the region. Are within two months of the holding of the third general election in less than a year. The anomaly of the imputation of Netanyahu for corruption cases investigated during his decade in power has poisoned the politics of the jewish State. The prime minister, who always rejected the accusations as a witch hunt has begun 2020 under the umbrella of parliamentary immunity, while the Supreme Court examined the first case against him to veto it receives a new task of forming a Government after the next election. The High Court dismissed the demand Tuesday by untimely, but he left the door open for review after the ides election of march.

The surveys are still pointing to a block with no output in the Knesset (Parliament), but the intense wear of image suffered by Netanyahu may end up giving the victory –the third– the former general Benny Gantz. The leader of the opposition would have to repeat, however, the controversial formula that brought him to power to another former Army chief of staff, yitzhak Rabin, in 1992. It would require all the votes of the centre-left more the external support of arab parties -branded as anti-zionist - against the nationalist bloc of religious Netanyahu.

In this part of the world governed by uncertainty, until the palestinians can also be called to the polls this year, after three decades without right to vote. It will all depend on if the president Mahmud Abbas, who is available to meet 84-year-old, calls as announced presidential elections (the first since 2005) and legislative (the previous ones were held in 2006). But the elections really interested in Gaza, west bank and East Jerusalem are the of November in the united STATES, who can ratify or burying forever the so-called agreement of the century with that Donald Trump aims to go down in history as the godfather of the peace in the conflict-oldest of the middle East. Without listening to the voice of the palestinians, of course. In the region all seem to think the same thing.

Updated Date: 02 January 2020, 21:00

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