The challenges of China in 2020: the protest of Hong Kong to the economic slowdown

The asian giant faces a year with multiple fronts. China will try to weather the storm of economic slowdown while trying to put finishing touch to a trade war t

The challenges of China in 2020: the protest of Hong Kong to the economic slowdown

The asian giant faces a year with multiple fronts. China will try to weather the storm of economic slowdown while trying to put finishing touch to a trade war that has hit their exports and that is still open despite a first breakthrough in negotiations with the united States. In addition, Beijing will continue to watch the protests, pro-democracy in Hong Kong, which last almost eight months and they keep the territory plunged into the greatest social crisis in its modern history, and the presidential elections in Taiwan, the result of which will mark their relationships with the who considers a “rebel island”. North korea, which has decided to cancel the moratorium on tests of nuclear weapons that is imposed, it will require new attention to china in the face of threats of Kim Jong-un to launch new missiles, which also raises the tension with South Korea and Japan.

the first of The events that marks the new year in Asia will take place less than two weeks after its start. is Taiwan will be held the next day 11 presidential and legislative elections, in which the current chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, leader of the Progressive Party, the Democratic, seek to re-edit their victory in 2016. Everything points to what you want: the outbreak of the protests in Hong Kong have rekindled the fear of the power of China, giving back to the polls until may put as a favourite to your rival in the polls, Have Kuo-yu, representative of the Kuomintang, the chinese nationalist party.

MORE INFORMATION

The voltage returns to Hong Kong with shocks in a multitudinous march in the New Year Kim Jong-un announces the end of the moratorium on nuclear tests, and threatened with a “new strategic weapon” for China and the U.S. closed the first phase of the agreement ending the trade war

As a response to the policy of distancing themselves from the president, Beijing has carried out a strong diplomatic offensive during the past term of office, which has resulted in seven low more in the dwindling list of countries-allies of the island. Taiwan, which still maintains the official name of Republic of China, already has 15 official partners. A second victory of Tsai tensaría even more rope between the island and the mainland. In January of last year, chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated that China has “with the legitimacy of resort to force” to achieve the reincorporation of Taiwan.

On the domestic front, the economy of China will be under scrutiny in 2020, pending the trade tension with the united States. Although both countries have closed a first deal to start off the trade war, are still far from burying the hatchet. Are to address the thorniest issues of the negotiations, which include a series of complex reforms for China and the future of the technology Huawei is banned on american soil. The presidential elections of the USA of November will mark, without a doubt, the pace of the talks between the two powers. A deterioration of the dialogue lastraría the chinese GDP, this year could, according to both the majority of the analysts, to grow at a rate of less than 6%, the lowest in 30 years. In an escalation of trade tensions, in addition, ahondaría the disconnection of the economies of the two great powers, a process that would have a huge impact on the prospects of global growth.

On the other side of the coin, this will be the year in which Xi Jinping aspires to eradicate poverty in China, according to its own standards and not those of the international community. Beijing considers as poor those living on less than 3,000 yuan a year (383 euros, compared to 623 which established the World Bank). The chinese leader will set this goal back in 2015 and, since then, has been a priority in government action that may be able to get. The number of people living under the threshold of chinese in poverty has grown from 750 million in 1990 to 16.6 million in less than three decades.

Another of the headaches for China are the anti-government protests in Hong Kong . The Executive led by Carrie Lam has been unable to quell the discontent of the protesters, who maintain their demands after eight relentless months of protests. After his historic victory in the municipal elections of last November –in which they won 392 of 452 councilors in the game with 60% of the popular vote–, the forces pro-democracy aspire to achieve a new milestone in the elections to the Parliament that will be held next September. The challenge is even greater, since the universal suffrage is only applicable to 35 of the 70 seats –the rest is divided between districts, employment of most prochina– but a majority in the House would allow them to block the action of the autonomous Government of the former british colony. While maintaining the pressure in the street, with large demonstrations.

North Korea is one of the hottest spots of the region. After the failure of negotiations with the united States regarding its nuclear program, Kim Jong-un has adopted a much more bellicose. Has given an end to the moratorium that is imposed on itself about nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) and threat with a "new strategic weapon" and with an "action traumatic". A statement at the start of the course, which is a major setback to the attempt to dismantle the nuclear program of Pyongyang. The possibility that North Korea resume the launches of ICBM, capable of reaching us territory, crosses the single red line marked by the us president, Donald Trump, with whom the north Korean leader has been interviewed twice and that the negotiations have reached tangible commitments. The attitude of Kim again raises the tension about the nuclear threat in the region.

South Korea, especially, not lose sight of the movements of Pyongyang. After the steps taken by both countries towards normalization of relations, the process is now stalled.

Also Japan is pending developments on the Korean peninsula, where, in addition, has to deal with the conflict that faces Seoul. In the source of the clash is a judicial decision issued by a court in south korea last July that seeks to force the japanese companies to pay compensation to those citizens employed as forced labourers during the occupation in the first half of the TWENTIETH century, a matter that Tokyo considered settled office with a bilateral agreement reached in 2015. On the domestic front, the japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, faces the problems of an economy that needs to be opened to the outside and to face the ageing of the population. The Government hopes that the celebration this year of the Olympic Games in Tokyo assume a shock to the sleepy economy of the country and strengthen its presence abroad. The next general elections are scheduled for October 2021, but Abe —the leader that more time has occupied the post of prime minister in the history of the country— could adelantarlas if it deems favorable to the interests of his party.

Where there will be elections for sure you will be in Myanmar . After his overwhelming victory in 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi will meet again at the polls next November. Despite the fact that enjoying a great domestic support, the international image of the Nobel Peace prize in 1991, has been torn to pieces because of the serious abuses of his Government against the rohingyás, a crackdown that the UN has described as "attempted genocide". Last December, the leader of burma appeared before the International Court of Justice in The Hague to defend his country in denouncing the persecution of the muslim minority.

In Thailand , the prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, will face already in the middle of this month a question of trust in the national Parliament. The critical sectors with their Government, have organized a “march against the dictatorship” for the day 12. It is feared that this call open a way to another difficult stage of street protests, as in 2014 ended with a coup that helped power a military junta led by the own Chan-ocha.

To at regional level , 2020 is the year in which it should be ratified in accordance with the agreement for the establishment of the commercial area known as the RCEP. This project, led by China and India has been flanked, aims to become the largest free trade area in the world.

India: turbulence of the path hindu nationalist

The police are trying to contain the students of the islamic university, Darul Uloom Nadwatul Ulama which is manifested in Lucknow, in northern India, last month. REUTERS

Angel Martinez, Mumbai

India saffron (color of hinduism) of Narendra Modi is facing the year with the challenge to quell the growing popular discontent on several fronts. The strong victory of the prime minister in the general elections of 2019 has not resulted in greater stability for the second-most populous country in the world and the seventh economy of the planet.

Modi has put an end to decades of policies of integration or rapprochement to the muslim minority -200 million indians—. The decision to build a hindu temple on the rubble of a mosque was followed by the annulment of the autonomy of Kashmir —the only indian State to muslim-majority border with Pakistan— and the law of citizenship that excludes this group has ended up bringing to the streets whom you see as a danger to religious plurality. The contest of the hindu majority in the protests depends on the success of a hinduism political will never before seen in India.

This dissatisfaction is also fed with the running of the economy. The growth has plummeted to almost half and it is estimated that the GDP of India hardly reach 5% in 2020. The higher unemployment of the past four decades portends a difficult year for a Government that is more focused on imposing a political ideology based on religious differences than on economic reforms with a view to the future.

The impending elections in Delhi, the capital, will be a test for Modi, who could lose their ninth elections to regional in a few years despite its supremacy national.

Updated Date: 04 January 2020, 15:00

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