An exasperated social close to its climax, a head of State personally challenged... The Mali crosses of severe political turmoil at a delicate time of international engagement against jihadism in the Sahel. A state of the art.
The head of State of mali Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came out of his silence Sunday evening in a speech to the nation where he has reached out to the coalition motley of religious leaders, politicians and civil society which denies his power. "I have followed with attention the recent events that have taken place in our country. I heard the anger and the shouting, I've heard the claims and arrests, " said president Keita, the public television. "I look forward to the prospect of meeting soon the actors of the Movement of the 5 June ", said the leader of mali, in power since 2013, in allusion to this new coalition.
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The challenge of the 5 June
The coalition is made up of a movement having as its head the imam Mahmoud Dicko, the Front for the safeguard of democracy (FSD), which brings together opposition parties, including the main between them, Hope Mali Koura (EMK), is a civil society movement led by the filmmaker, and former minister of Culture Cheick Oumar Sissoko.
a Prominent religious figure and taking an islam that is rigorous, Mahmoud Dicko was close to the president Keïta. Recent entry into politics, he became a virulent critic of power.
The new coalition has organized on 5 June in Bamako, a gathering of tens of thousands of people. Several of the demonstrators waved placards calling for the resignation of president Keïta, who is supported by the international community in its war against the jihadists.
tens of thousands of Malians took to the streets on this day in Bamako, at the call of an alliance motley led by an influential religious leader. They have told their ras-le-bol, not only of the "processions of the dead" caused by the spread of violence and jihadists communal, but also of the " bad governance ", the "impoverishment" of a country already among the poorest in the world, the decay of basic services, and corruption. The protesters were carrying placards " IBK, get out ! ". Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta is the president since 2013.
The same day, 29 villagers were massacred in the centre of the country.
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Why now ?
The grumbling is out there for months. But recent legislation and the decision of the constitutional Court to reverse a thirty results announced, including a dozen for the benefit of candidates of the presidential party, have exacerbated the frustrations. In a climate of distrust, the malcontents saw in it a foreshadowing of the presidential election in 2023 and unable to exit the crisis.
The pandemic of sars coronavirus has put the nerves even more raw.
The political analyst Baba Dakono speaks of the " confluence of crises ", mobilising activists, anti-corruption, representatives of the civil society or even of teachers in conflict for months. This time, the crises do not converge towards the Prime minister, as in 2019, but the highest character of the State, ally of the international community and actors in the fight antidjihadiste in the Sahel.
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A time that would be counted
"The crisis is of an extreme gravity," said analyst Ibrahim Maïga. "We knew that the anger was great. Today, she has a face, it has a door-to-speech ", in the person of the imam Dicko.
The preacher who was a rigorist and a patriot, eminent figure of public life, has now openly his political commitment and borst for months the "governance of catastrophic," of Mali. In 2019, he had participated in the revolt against the Prime minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga, forced to resign. It has taken this time the head of a rogue alliance that binds the hostility of the head of State.
actors of the international community, including the UN and the economic Community of African States West (Ecowas), have in recent days played, good offices by meeting separately with MESSRS. Keïta and Dicko.
The Mali is embroiled since 2012 in a deep multifaceted crisis, security, political, economic. Insurgency, freedom fighters, and jihadists, as well as the inter-communal violence have led to thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands displaced.
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Possible scenarios
The preacher himself does not demand openly for the president's resignation and has left the door open to dialogue. Speculation abounds about a forthcoming interview between the chairman and the imam.
- A president's resignation is unlikely, experts say.
- A dissolution of Parliament " is only possible if IBK feels that its survival [policy] is in danger ", writes the analyst Maïga.
- The assumption of the appointment of a new Prime minister is rejected, at least temporarily. The current head of government Boubou Cissé has presented his resignation this week, according to the use after the parliamentary elections. The president was renewed without him to play the role of fuse. A possible sign of firmness of the president. But the new government may also be the opportunity to play in the opening.
The Mali is, moreover, in expectation of a new government, after the resignation on the 11th of June, which is expected after the parliamentary elections of march-April, the team led by the Prime minister, Boubou Cisse, renewed in his functions.
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The worst not excluded
"The worst-case scenario, this would be to take the risk to put the crowd in the street," says Baba Dakono. Everyone, including the protesters, has in mind the spectrum of 2012 and the coup that threw Mali into a spiral still going on, reminds Ibrahim Maïga.
He noted that the leaders have control of the movement. And a lot of forces are at work to dissipate the tensions. "I'm not someone who break my country or that puts the fire in my country," assured the imam Dicko to Radio France International.
supporters of The president have canceled a counter-demonstration in his favour. On the other hand, the alliance of the imam Dicko calls for a new mass demonstration on Friday to demand the resignation of IBK.
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