there will not be tomorrow, Friday, July 17, gathering in Bamako as we could see the 5 and 19 June and 11 July. The protest movement says the 5 June, which called for the departure of the government in power in Mali, has given up and has decided to defer in a context of highly volatile, said Ahmadou Not Dounga Maiga, a spokesman for a component of the collective that bears commonly its messages Wednesday evening. This single gesture will suffice to appease the spirits ? Nothing is certain. The situation quickly escalated a week ago, after the third rally of the protest has turned into three days of civil unrest, the most serious has been the capital since 2012.
A large delegation of the economic Community of States of West Africa, with its head, former nigerian president, Goodluck Jonathan, arrived Wednesday, July 15, to Bamako to find ways out of the crisis.
meanwhile, the discourse of the movement which enjoys the support of a wide range of actors, including the imam Dicko has hardened. He said not to claim that a thing, the resignation of the president. How did he come here, what are the causes and what outcomes are possible today ?
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The attack was it predictable ?
The Mali is sinking in the crisis since the insurgencies guerrillas and jihadists 2012. Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was elected to the presidency in 2013, with a picture of the savior. Seven years after, the people are angry : in front of the violence of all kinds, faced with the powerlessness of the State and the groups linked to Al-Qaida and the organization islamic State, before the state of the roads and hospitals, the cuts of water and electricity, food insecurity, extreme poverty, affecting more than 40 % of the 20 million inhabitants, according to the world Bank. And in front of an elite accused of sharing the cake. The images recently broadcast without his knowledge of the son of the president taking a good time on a yacht abroad have only served to confirm the a priori.
what is it that has changed ?
The anger was expressed repeatedly in different forms. But "it has never been so strong," said Ibrahim Maiga, a researcher at the Institute for security studies (ISS) in Bamako. And this time, "she has a face, it has a spokesperson, in which many find themselves" : the imam Mahmoud Dicko, opponent of corruption and defender of religious values and traditional social and nation " humiliated ".
Many of the leaders of the movement, June 5 (M5), which is pressed around it, are part of the system, with agendas antagonistic. The imam himself participated in his way to the exercise of power. But today he channels the discontent.
The imam Dicko, it is " the emergence of a charismatic type who, failing to find answers, asks the same questions that the people of Mali ", said Bakary Sambé, director of the think tank Timbuktu Institute.
What was the trigger ?
The authority has maintained the parliamentary elections of march-April, while conditions could hardly be more adverse. The coronavirus had just made its appearance, and the opposition leader Soumaïla Cissé had to be removed. It would be in the hands of the jihadists.
After the elections, the constitutional Court has reversed a thirty results, of which a dozen for the benefit of the party of the president, stirring up the distrust of institutions.
opposition parties and civil society organizations have made a covenant with the imam Dicko. The first meeting, which gave its name to the motion on June 5, brings together the spite, teachers, youth...
Where are we ?
The last rally to the call of the M5, on July 10, has degenerated into three days of unrest bloody that left at least 11 dead.
in recent weeks, the president has tried several openings, including the dissolution of the constitutional Court, to be able to go on the results of the legislative elections. None of them overcame the intransigence of the leaders of the M5. They say they do not have another goal that the president's resignation. They proclaim the " civil disobedience ".
can The president resign ?
"I would not dismiss totally," responds Ibrahim Maïga. His "policy of small steps has made things worse," he said. Its offer of a national unity government is to hand over the same characters in the same system. Gold " this system is out of breath. We can't co-opt, it is not enough to calm the anger."
" The steamroller is in motion. Only strong decisions can stop this cycle of violence, " said, like other experts, Brema Ely Dicko, a sociologist at the university of Bamako.
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can This go wrong ?
This is a concern, with a country where violence is propagated to the neighbors and in a Sahel itself in turmoil. This is not the worst course but cannot be ruled out, experts say.
" The fear is that the movement will come to be out [of] control ", said Bakary Sambé. Imam Dicko " still holds the reins ", but what about the other leaders of the M5 which his booster for the first time gives the "opportunity" to battle with chances of success against the president.
The imam Dicko is also " pressed for its radical base that does not see salvation outside of a total chaos ", says the researcher at the Institute for security studies. Conversely, some of the M5 would be well in a scenario " where one of the new with the old ". And the imam Dicko would not seek the escalation, according to experts. On Wednesday evening, the M5 has announced the postponement of a rally in risk scheduled for Friday. It is simply to invoke " reasons highly strategic ".
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