The Taliban allowed to return to Kabul, a good two decades after her fall. Although the Islamists are not the sole winner of the Afghanistan war, because this war has no winner. But the Islamists can now build on a first diplomatic success: First, the United States agree to leave the country. And only after this commitment to the Taliban with the Afghan government to the table.

In the upcoming negotiations with President Ashraf Ghani, the Taliban can look relatively relaxed on the calendar: Until the end of April 2021, all Western troops should return to their homeland. And even if the United States attach conditions to this concession, it is hard to imagine that Donald Trump in the upcoming election campaign takes on his promise to bring the U.S. soldiers home, if the talks between Ghani and the Taliban Stalled.

"most of The old powers-that-influence are as rich as before."

The Taliban will return, if you can actually with Ghani on a power-sharing, in a different Kabul than you have left in 2001. In this Kabul women go to the University and to discuss it in the TV talk shows. But in this Kabul also Warlords sitting in the government, the alignment of their Power to the Benefit of their Clans, not of the country.

The West does not point to wrongs on newly-won women's rights, although no one can guarantee in Brussels, London or Washington, that these will remain after the withdrawal guaranteed. Even more serious, however, is: The United States installed a Central government with a President in Kabul, while the Prince of the Power of the Regional and Warlords in the provinces are not antasteten. Most of the old leaders are still so influential as before. And they keep each other in check.

The result: The Taliban are now in Kabul on a hopelessly divided political class. And a strategic advantage for you in the case of the intra-Afghan peace negotiations, which are due now.

Created: 01.03.2020, 21:09 PM