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The prophets of the catastrophe have been found in the latest crisis in the middle East an occasion to announce the Armageddon. For them, the war between Iran and the united States is inevitable; also taken at the foot of the letter the rhetoric of war with the rulers to iranians and iraqis are responding to the murder of the general Soleimani and several heads militiamen by american troops. So when Tehran has unveiled a new step in the reduction of its commitments to the nuclear deal have been interpreted that she was leaving. It is not so. The iranian regime can be accused of many things less of precipitation.

to Deny the limitations in the enrichment of uranium constitutes a new violation, very calculated, of the conditions that Iran agreed in 2015 when you signed the pact with the six major powers (the USA, China, Russia, Uk, France and Germany), not its abandonment. In fact, it was a lance expected, the fifth from that in may of last year began to droop of their obligations in response to the output of the agreement on the part of Washington a year before, and the sanctions that prevent it from selling oil since then.

previously, the Islamic Republic has already jumped the limit of enriched uranium and heavy water that the Comprehensive Plan of Joint Action (PIAC) allows you to store, the purity that can enrich the models of centrifuges authorized to do so or the places where you can carry out this process, which both serves to obtain fuel for nuclear plants as fissile material of military grade. It has been a drip within a period of 60 days.

The match now with the crisis unleashed by the assassination of Soleimani has added drama to the new ad, but it has not been motivated. On the contrary, experts and diplomats stress that could have been much worse. As highlighted by Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the program on Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Policy at the International Institute of Strategic Studies and exfuncionario from the us State Department, “maintains the option to return [to the covenant] if the US does it”.

The re of european sanctions and the UN laid down in the covenant is the most obvious of reasons to stay in the PIAC

That coda has been a constant since Tehran started its strategy of reduction of commitments to pressure the rest of the signatories to the agreement, in particular the europeans, to compensate for the economic damage that will caused the output of EE UU. The own the Foreign minister of iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, reiterated on his Twitter account that this step and the previous “are reversible from the EFFECTIVE implementation of the reciprocal obligations”.

Much as, or more important, Zarif underlined that his country will continue its “total cooperation with the IAEA”, the UN body that monitors the agreement. That leaves leeway to negotiate and is a clear indicator that Iran does not want to get out of the PIAC. There are several objective reasons for this. The most obvious is the re of european sanctions and the UN laid down in the covenant. Although this is not an automatic mechanism, nor is it foreseeable that take too long given that the europeans are starting to lose patience with the ultimatos iranians who consider it a “wrong strategy”.

Linked to the above is also the fact that, among the provisions of the nuclear agreement, it is contemplated the progressive lifting of the embargo to transfers of technology and weapons to Iran. The next 18 of October, five years after the day on which it is formally adopted, the time limit expires that required the approval by the Security Council of any sale of weapons (conventional) to the Islamic Republic. In a time of tension with the US closed that door it would be like to stick a shot in the foot.

Without denying the gravity of the gradual progression of Iran towards the emptying of the contents of the Plan, it is also important to distinguish between the rhetoric and the reality. Last July announced that it was to respect the limit of uranium enrichment (capado by the covenant to a 3,67%). However, according to the latest measures by the inspectors of the IAEA, has not gone to 4.5%, well below the 20% that was before the signature and of the 90% that is the degree of purity needed for an atomic bomb.

catastrophism is supported by the succession of conflicts that for decades, lives in the middle East. At the same time, any connoisseur of this area know that the regional policy is greatly convoluted, and rarely things are black or white. Maybe it's an illusion to think that you can still negotiate with Iran, but the alternative is so terrible that it should not close beforehand the few doors ajar.

Date Of Update: 06 January 2020, 19:00