According to general opinion, Boris Johnson tends not to be thoughtful. But in his video message for Christmas, the former British prime minister was very contemplative. One should be thankful for what one has, he said: the pandemic has almost been overcome, also thanks to a great vaccination campaign, and unemployment is at a record low level. No one was surprised that these are the same points that Johnson always praised himself for during his government. The conservative politician may not have mentioned his achievements by chance: experts believe Johnson's return to political leadership in 2023 is possible.

The 58-year-old is doing little to dampen rumors of a comeback similar to that of his role model Winston Churchill. In the conservative magazine "Spectator", Johnson recently called the current phase an "unexpected break" in his career. That suits the studied historian, who compared himself to a Roman ruler in his resignation speech: "Like Cincinnatus, I'm going back to my field," Johnson said in July. Lucius Quintus Cincinnatus (519-430 BC) had returned to work in the fields after a successful battle - but took over sole rule again when asked to do so.

Johnson never got over the fact that after a series of scandals - culminating in the "Partygate" affair - he was chased out of office by his own conservative faction. The charismatic populist is still very popular, especially at the party base, as political scientist Mark Garnett said in an interview with the German Press Agency. He is convinced that Johnson would have prevailed against Rishi Sunak in a runoff among the members.

But the former prime minister withdrew, and Sunak became the new party leader and then head of government without being elected. What made Johnson surprisingly resign, even though he had the necessary number of electors in the group, is still a cause for speculation. After all, didn't he believe the Tories would win in the next general election planned for 2024? Did he want to earn enough money first to be able to continue his luxurious lifestyle?

As prime minister, Johnson, who is married for the third time and has at least one illegitimate daughter, repeatedly complained that he was earning less than he did when he was a columnist and author. This may have changed. According to the MPs' Perquisites Register, Johnson has already picked up more than £1m in speaking fees since leaving Downing Street in September. According to media reports, he is currently looking for a house in the upscale London district of Fulham with his wife Carrie and their children Wilfred and Romy.

"It doesn't hurt Johnson's earning potential that he's seen as a budding executive," said expert Garnett. "If the Conservative Party does particularly badly in the local elections in May, the rumors will get louder - and the temptation could just be too great for the impulsive politician Johnson to resist."

Johnson still has friends in parliament who are extremely critical of the incumbent Sunak. A Tory MP told the Conservative Daily Express newspaper: "Boris still has a lot to give to British politics." A former adviser to Johnson, who also remained unnamed, said similarly: "He's not the type to watch Britain go under in a controlled manner."

In recent weeks, Johnson has appeared repeatedly in his London constituency of Uxbridge. A good dozen Tory MPs have already announced that they will not stand again in 2024. But the former prime minister wants to fight for his seat. He often emphasizes his foreign policy expertise and repeatedly calls for support for Ukraine - even as head of government Johnson showed himself to be one of the country's closest allies in the war against Russia.

For the incumbent Prime Minister Sunak, whom Johnson's supporters blame for his fall, his predecessor remains dangerous. Experts urge caution. "The rationale for bringing him back so soon after his forced resignation rests almost entirely on his potential to win votes," says expert Garnett. According to current polls, the Tories are likely to lose the parliamentary elections with a bang, even with Johnson.

But calls for the "savior" Johnson are already expected from within the party itself. Ex-Secretary General Jake Berry said in a podcast that this would happen as soon as the situation got really dicey and MPs feared for their mandates. "I think Boris will come back," said Berry. "He's something of the Conservative Party's mistress – he knows that. The alluring other woman. The king of the sea."