Security expert Christian Mölling sees no chance for Brazilian President Lula's push to negotiate a settlement of the Ukraine conflict. "What could Brazil offer? Apart from a nice phone call," Mölling said on Tuesday in the stern podcast "Ukraine – the situation". Lula acted as a mediator during Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit and also called for China to participate. According to the research director of the German Society for Foreign Policy, this does not change anything in Russia's calculations.
"The idea that something could happen by replacing the negotiating team is also disrespectful to Putin, who said very clearly what he actually wants to achieve," explained Mölling. The attitude "that Russia thinks it has to wage a war against Ukraine" remains the same. He left no doubt as to who was the aggressor and who was the victim in the conflict: "A guy appeared here, his name is Vladimir Putin, and he said I want to kill you all."
Both warring parties are preparing for the fact that the fighting will increase after the end of winter. Mölling does not see a quick way to a negotiated peace. "As a consequence, this slaughter - the death of many thousands of people - is necessary," said Mölling. It's about making it clear to Russia that it can't gain any advantage by continuing its aggression: "As bitter as that is, you will only come to this realization on the battlefield."
Mölling also sees clear limits for concessions to the Russian invaders on the part of Ukraine. He said: "We must not underestimate the fact that Ukraine's staying power is also based on the fact that it has sworn not only to a political, but a military victory." There is a growing cultural difference between German and Ukrainian society. A "heroic society" is emerging in Ukraine. This trend could also lead to different perspectives between Ukraine and its supporters. "Where cultural differences increase, the potential for conflict also increases," says Mölling.