Parties: The CSU on the way to Söder's fateful year

In view of his appointment and travel workload, the party conference this Friday and Saturday should almost be something like a break for CSU boss Markus Söder.

Parties: The CSU on the way to Söder's fateful year

In view of his appointment and travel workload, the party conference this Friday and Saturday should almost be something like a break for CSU boss Markus Söder. For months, the Bavarian Prime Minister has been touring the Free State day in and day out, no festival is too small for a visit, no topping-out ceremony too far away. The fact that Söder is in one place practically 24 hours a day, as is now the case in Augsburg, is remarkable in itself.

Söder is not doing this without reason: After the Corona years and the strict course in infection protection for which he was responsible for a long time, the connection to the citizens should get better again, true to the CSU motto "Closer to people". Quite a few - also in the CSU - see it as a hidden pre-election campaign. Next fall there will be elections in Bavaria. 2023 is considered Söder's fateful year.

poll numbers

The fact is, however, that Söder's schedule has so far brought nothing countable for the CSU. In polls since March 2021, the party has remained within the range of the 2018 election result (37.2 percent), which Söder had rated as a "painful result" from which the party must learn lessons. Just in time for the party congress, a representative poll by the Forsa Institute now delivers 41 percent, a value that is psychologically important for the CSU - few in the party will be bothered by the fact that the poll was commissioned by the CSU.

"Söder works a lot, he works a lot, but he's not everyone's favorite," a CSU board member tries to explain in a statement about the stagnant poll numbers. The analysis of other members of the party leadership is more drastic: Söder and thus the CSU has a credibility problem.

It is remarkably common in the party to hear: After several 180-degree turns in recent years, the compass of the CSU has gotten completely confused. Examples include the extremely conservative asylum course under Söder's predecessor Horst Seehofer (with Söder's participation), who once almost destroyed the Union community with the CDU, then the cuddle course to the CDU through to Söder's "greening" of the CSU, including tree hugs and sympathies for coalitions with the Greens.

Söder's lost battle for the candidacy for the Union chancellor and the resulting bankruptcy in the federal election are still not digested. "Especially in the more reflective milieus, this caused a lot of confusion and also skepticism because of the lack of consistency," according to high party circles. First, Söder presented himself as a modernizer with sentences like "Those who don't keep up with the times, keep up with the times", now he is also working on a renaissance of the "Bayern-versus-Berlin policy" out of concern for the conservative regular voters, which they demand Return of nuclear power, the end of which he himself once called for. A few weeks ago, Söder even conceded the women's quota he had demanded on the stage at the Junge Union, "completely without any need," my critic said.

Ultimately, a convincing concept is missing, a coherent counter-proposal that goes beyond "keep it up in Bavaria" and "against the federal government," they say. Especially with a view to the state elections. "Whatever the CSU is now criticizing about the federal energy policy, after 16 years as part of the federal government, we are jointly liable," says a board member. "We don't lose our responsibility there, we can complain and point the finger at Berlin as we like." For this reason, the CSU does not benefit in surveys from the weakening traffic light government in the federal government.

But what does that mean for the future? Until the election in autumn 2023, Söder will be firmly in the saddle. The CSU is famous for its loyalty until election day. But if the result falls below the 37 percent mark, the air will be thin - even if the CSU is still the clear number one in the country.

Söder could then benefit from another problem of the party: There is not exactly a cornucopia of potential successors or even contenders for the party leader's chair. "Söder's luck is that he has no Söder behind him," says a board member.

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