A new forecast following Poland's parliamentary election has confirmed that Poland's national conservative ruling party PiS has fallen short of an absolute majority and three opposition parties could form a new government.
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's PiS became the strongest force with 36.6 percent of the vote, according to the results of post-election surveys published this morning by the polling institute Ipsos. In second place with 31 percent was the opposition liberal-conservative Citizens' Coalition (KO) of the former Prime Minister and former EU Council President Donald Tusk.
Changes in foreign policy expected
A change of power in Warsaw could bring decisive changes in Polish foreign policy. The PiS is in constant dispute with Brussels and angered Berlin with demands for world war reparations. The opposition could put Poland on a pro-European course.
In the new forecast, PiS was predicted to have 198 seats in the new parliament. The majority is 231 of the 460 mandates. The only possible coalition partner is the ultra-right Konfederacja, whose 14 mandates are, according to forecasts, not enough for a government majority. The final election result will probably not be known until Tuesday.
According to forecasts, the opposition Citizens' Coalition (KO) can count on 161 mandates. It could form a coalition with the Christian-conservative Third Way (13.5 percent) and the left-wing alliance Lewica (8.6 percent). The three-party alliance would have 248 members and a majority in parliament.
A lengthy government formation is expected
Opposition leader Donald Tusk saw himself as the winner on Sunday evening: "I have never been so happy about second place. Poland has won, democracy has won, that is the end of the PiS government," he said on election evening. PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski said they were waiting to see how events unfolded.
The foreign policy spokesman for the Union parliamentary group in the Bundestag, Jürgen Hardt (CDU), said that the election results in Poland show "that we cannot win elections among our neighbors with hostility to Germany and Europe. The people in Poland are among the big winners in the European elections Agreement and don't let yourself be persuaded otherwise." The CDU/CSU would like to see “the rapid success of the formation of a new Polish government under Donald Tusk.”
The balance of power in parliament can still shift by nuances of a few percentage points for smaller parties. A lengthy government formation is expected.