John Fetterman is an apparition. The 7-foot-10 Pennsylvania politician is the antithesis of pretty much every Democratic Party cliché. Tattoos, overalls, bald head and beard - the Democratic candidate for the senator post in the important swing state does not look like the academic elite from New York or California. He makes politics with simple statements that are close to the people in the stricken region. That could give him the decisive advantage in what is probably the most bizarre race of the Midterms.

In just over a month, on November 8th, the USA will elect a new Congress. The largest nationwide election after the presidential election always takes place in the middle of a legislative period. The citizens then re-elect the entire House of Representatives with a total of 435 MPs. In addition, a third of the seats in the Senate, i.e. 35 seats, will be newly elected. Currently, President Joe Biden's Democratic Party commands a razor-thin majority in both houses of Congress. They hold 222 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the majority is even tighter. Republicans and Democrats each have 50 seats. Only the extra voice of Vice President Kamala Harris is decisive here. So it is all the more explosive that the cards are now being reshuffled.

Of the 35 Senate seats, 14 are currently held by Democrats and 21 by Republicans. Most of them are considered safe due to the two-party system. However, it would be enough for the Republicans to win back two states that went to Joe Biden in the election two years ago: Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Success in the swing states could make Joe Biden's tenure significantly more difficult.

Most political observers are currently looking primarily at the race in Pennsylvania. After all, it's not just one of the most important races, it's probably also the most bizarre. The well-known television doctor Mehmet Oz was able to assert himself among the Republicans. The heart surgeon actually had an excellent reputation for a long time, until he ruined it with television appearances and questionable recommendations for remedies. Shortly before his time in the White House, Trump had a check-up appointment with him. In front of the cameras, Oz Trump attested a body mass index of 29.6. "He's going to be the healthiest President ever," Oz said at the time. The flattery paid off. With the support of the still very popular ex-president, Dr. Oz primary against right-wing hardliner Dave McCormick.

However, Democrat John Fetterman is likely to have a better chance of taking office. The 53-year-old is currently Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. Undecided voters seem to like the mix of progressive left-wing politics and the demeanor of an honest worker. Fetterman's career reads differently than his appearance suggests.

Fetterman grew up in the middle class of York, Pennsylvania. His parents were conservative Republicans. After spending four years of college primarily playing semi-professional football, he earned a degree in economics from the University of Connecticut to one day take over his father's insurance company. During his studies, one of his best friends died in a car accident. It was the drastic turning point in Fetterman's life. He then became involved in the social organizations "Big Brothers Big Sisters of America" ​​and "AmeriCorps". In 1999 he completed a master's degree in public policy at the renowned Harvard University.

Despite this impressive résumé, he is best known to voters as the mayor of Braddock, a village of 2,000 people. From 2006 to 2019, like no other local politician, he campaigned for the residents of this run-down region. Pennsylvania benefited from rapid industrialization in the United States in the 19th and 20th centuries. Iron ore and oil production in the north-east of the country quickly created urban centers in the States, the so-called Manufacturing Belts. Chicago and Milwaukee were centers for the food industry, Detroit was responsible for the nascent auto industry, and Pittsburgh and the rest of Pennsylvania took care of the steel industry.

For decades, the many industrial workers in this region ensured that states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were considered strongholds of the Democratic Party. However, due to structural change and the decline of the steel industry in the 1970s, the Manufacturing Belt became the Rust Belt. Many companies went bankrupt, big cities degenerated and voters felt abandoned. So it's no wonder that Donald Trump's populist battle cry "America First" was particularly popular here. The loss of the so-called "blue wall" in the north-east of the USA is considered a decisive factor in Hillary Clinton's defeat in the 2016 presidential election.

John Fetterman is a prime example of how to win back these disappointed voters in the long run. In a hoodie and shorts, he represents progressive, pro-employee positions and presents himself as one of them. He's campaigning to legalize cannabis, call for criminal justice reform, protect union rights, raise the minimum wage and push for public health insurance and tougher gun laws. However, he does not want to ban firearms entirely. He also defends the police and has shed his anti-fracking stance in recent years. This moderate policy seems to go down well with voters. In addition to regular Democratic voters, many people who checked Donald Trump six years ago cavort at his election campaign events.

Even a previous scandal has not affected Fetterman so far. In January 2013, he used a gun to arrest an unarmed black jogger. The accusation of racism was loud. Fetterman later apologized, arguing that he heard a loud bang, which he attributed to a gun. He wouldn't have known the person was black and unarmed. Fetterman admitted using the wrong means to do the right thing: protect his family. It didn't affect his popularity. Even then-victim Christopher Miyares said in a recent interview that Fetterman would likely get his vote in November's elections.

Moderate voters, who consider themselves neither Democrats nor Republicans, have long identified significantly more with Fetterman than with the colorful television personality Mehmet Oz. In August, he led the polls by a comfortable twelve percentage points. That lead has now shrunk to six percent. However, this is not due to the popularity of Dr. Oz, but rather the health of Fetterman.

In May of this year, Fetterman suffered a stroke. Since then, Mehmet Oz's election campaign has focused primarily on questioning Fetterman's health. Oz went so far as to post a video in which he said, "If John Fetterman had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, he probably wouldn't have had a stroke."

Even if Dr. Oz later apologized for the allegations, his allegations got stuck in people's minds. Local media repeatedly draw attention to linguistic gaps in Fetterman's interviews. Republicans repeatedly denied him the health he needed for the post. Fetterman himself then withdrew to social media. There he retaliated with Oz by portraying him as a wealthy New Jersey snob. He even hired reality TV star Snooki from MTV's Jersey Shore for an election commercial. She asked Oz in a video message to enjoy the easy life in the neighboring state instead of running for the Senate in Pennsylvania. The fronts are hardened. On October 25th, Oz and Fetterman plan to meet for a TV duel for the first time.

With a month to go before voting begins, the Pennsylvania election is on the brink. If the Democrats win the all-important Senate seat, it will be thanks to Fetterman and his unconventional, honest demeanor. His simple progressive message connects him with a voter group thought lost: the industrial workers of Pennsylvania. With two years to go before the presidential election, this may be the most important lesson for the struggling party.

Quellen: Vox, The New York Times, The Guardian, The Inquirer, Stern, FiveThirtyEight,The Washington Post, lpb Baden-Württemberg