The state elections began in Bavaria and Hesse this morning. In Bavaria, Prime Minister Markus Söder's CSU was unchallenged in the lead in all surveys until recently, but at 36 to 37 percent it did not go beyond its historically poor election result from 2018 (37.2 percent). The Christian Socialists want to continue their coalition with the Free Voters, which has existed since 2018, after the leaflet scandal surrounding their leader Hubert Aiwanger.
It is eagerly awaited not only how well the CSU and Free Voters will perform in the end, but also who will come second behind the CSU: the Greens, the Free Voters or perhaps the AfD. The SPD recently did not get above nine percent in surveys. The FDP must therefore tremble as to whether it will reach the five percent mark.
An alliance of the CDU and the Greens has governed Hesse since 2014. According to the latest surveys, a continuation of the black-green coalition seems possible, but a coalition between the CDU and SPD is also mathematically and politically conceivable.
The CDU with Prime Minister Boris Rhein was recently clearly ahead of the SPD and its top candidate, Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, and the Greens in the polls. With Tarek Al-Wazir, they ran their own prime minister candidate for the first time. The AfD also has a chance of becoming the second strongest force. But no other party wants to form an alliance with her. It could be close to entering the state parliament for FDP, Left and Free voters.
Everything important about the elections in Bavaria and Hesse in the stern live blog: