Autocratic Alliance of convenience: United against the common enemy: How Iran is becoming Russia's most powerful ally

Kyiv is burning again.

Autocratic Alliance of convenience: United against the common enemy: How Iran is becoming Russia's most powerful ally

Kyiv is burning again. Months after the invaders withdrew from the area surrounding the metropolis, explosions have again rocked the Ukrainian capital. Videos circulating on social networks show how soldiers and police officers, sometimes helplessly, shoot at unmanned aerial vehicles before they crash into residential buildings. According to authorities, eight people were killed by drones on Monday. Hundreds of towns and villages in three Ukrainian regions were without electricity.

Moscow is about spreading the feeling among Ukrainians that people are no longer safe anywhere, explained security expert Ulrike Franke from the "European Council on Foreign Relations" on Monday in the ZDF "Heute Journal". But where did Russia get these automated suicide machines from?

It is not only "very, very clear" to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock where these so-called kamikaze drones come from. Hardly anyone buys the fact that Iran has so far denied supporting Russia with weapons. The alliance with Tehran has never been more important for Moscow - and it has never been more popular. It is less common goals than common enemies that unite the two autocracies in their current isolation.

Rarely has one felt so lonely in the Kremlin. 143 UN member states condemned Russia's annexations in Ukraine at the General Assembly in New York last week. The world has never been more united against Moscow - the result exceeded even the forecasts of the greatest optimists. Five states spoke out against the resolution, including (in addition to Russia itself) Moscow's vassal state of Belarus and North Korea. And Iran? He was one of the ten countries that did not even take part in the vote. The silence could hardly have been louder.

But it is not deep love that is bringing Iran and Russia closer together. Rather, they are bound together by a common hatred of the United States, which both autocracies hold responsible for their pariah position. They have little in common ideologically. It is "a partnership of convenience between two ailing dictatorships," Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the New York Times (NYT). In short: the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

In retrospect, the now intensifying liaison was not under the historically best omens. The relationship between Tehran and Moscow has actually been "characterized for a long time by a certain degree of mutual distrust," write experts at the London-based "International Institute for Strategic Studies" (IISS). Above all, previously incompatible interests in what is now the Middle East have repeatedly brought the two nations into conflict.

After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the motto of Tehran's foreign policy was: Neither East nor West. The fact that the Iranian regime has now evidently abandoned its self-imposed neutrality and opened its arms to the Kremlin is also due to the "good cooperation" in Syria, writes the NYT. In 2015, Putin deployed his air force to the civil war-torn country to prevent the collapse of the Assad regime - a longtime Iranian ally.

At that time, too, the two autocracies were united in their common endeavor to undermine the US-dominated world order. The war in Ukraine is no different - only the scale is far larger.

But Tehran is not only concerned with undermining Americanized geopolitics. In view of the escalating national protests that have shaken the country since the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, the mullah regime under President Ebrahim Raisi may well be keen to draw international attention back to Ukraine.

However, the delivery of the drones could also be used to support the Iranian defense industry, according to the experts at the IISS. After all, Iranian weapons have been ridiculed in the past as cheap Soviet imitations - an impression that is now outdated and needs to be corrected. If that's the plan, it'll work. The Iranian Shahed drone is currently "the most discussed weapon in the world," Ali Akbar Raefipour, head of the Iranian cyber army, recently tweeted.

There is also the possibility that the arms trade is not designed to be a one-way street. So Iran must increase its stock of fighter jets. Some analysts, the IISS said, have speculated that Russia might sell its new partner-in-Spe 24 Sukhoi Su-35s, originally manufactured under an Egyptian order that has since been shelved.

Tehran is also flirting with Moscow economically. "Iran sees the future in Russia and China," German-Iranian management consultant Dawood Nazirizadeh told Wirtschaftswoche in early October. As late as August, the IISS reports, the isolated partners began trading in their local currencies to circumvent massive US sanctions. Unsurprisingly, hardly any other nation has more experience with escaping economic isolation. For example, the United States has already identified three Iranian cargo planes bound for Russia – urgently needed electronic components are said to have been on board.

Iran is also counting on the Kremlin's willingness to cooperate in the energy sector. In the summer, the National Iranian Oil Company and Gazprom presented joint plans for Russia to invest $40 billion in Iran's oil and gas industry.

The regime closing-in "should be viewed as a pervasive threat and something that every country should be watching very closely," Vedant Patel, a deputy spokesman for the US State Department, said at a news conference Monday, according to the NYT. As the "Washington Post" reported on Sunday, the drones should only be a foretaste of the upcoming deliveries. A month ago, Russian emissaries went on a shopping spree to Iran. According to the US newspaper, her shopping list also included short-range ballistic missiles. The first delivery is already being prepared (the star reported).

But Tehran is also taking an enormous risk with its half-heartedly camouflaged support. Should the Islamic Republic openly position itself behind or even alongside Russia, Israel could become involved. Jerusalem has so far not sent any weapons to Ukraine, despite repeated requests from Kyiv. It is also difficult to predict how Iran's local rival Saudi Arabia will respond to the newly sparked friendship.

The same applies to the renewal of the nuclear agreement unilaterally terminated by Donald Trump in 2015, which is becoming more distant with every drone strike on Ukrainian soil.

Although Iran has decades of experience of operating under Western sanctions, their tightening in view of the looming civil war is likely to be the proverbial straw that breaks the camel's back and possibly actually leads to a revolution. When the horror footage from Kyiv went around the world on Monday, the threats from Washington followed immediately: "Anyone who does business with Iran that has a connection to UAVs (unidentified aerial vehicles) or the development of ballistic missiles should be very careful." said US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel. The US would "not hesitate to use sanctions," he added. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also spoke out in favor of further sanctions in the event of Iranian drone deliveries to Russia. But first there must be clarity about the origin of the drones used by Russia. In plain language: New sanctions are only a matter of time.

One can at least doubt whether this will move Iran to understand. Because in the end it is fear that connects Moscow and Tehran. The fear of the decay of their power, their values ​​and their meaning. The Iranian regime even blames the US for the protests on its own streets, just as Russia justified its invasion in February with the alleged threat from NATO. It's about setting an example, demonstrating strength, both internally and externally. "They don't care if the alternative is chaos," summarizes the US think tank Atlantic Council.

Sources: ZDF "Heute-Journal"; "New York Times"; "International Institute for Strategic Studies"; "Atlantic Council"; with dpa and AFP

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