As from the Federal Statistical office on Thursday reported, broke the German economy in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter by more than ten percent. However, it has already started at the end of April, a noticeable recovery, which is reflected in the sharp rise in the leading indicators.
a Decisive factor for the collapse of the economy and the following recovery was that the state imposed as a reaction to the spread of the Coronavirus significant restrictions of daily life and to the decline in infection numbers and then again eased. Against this Background, it is of course not good news that the number of new infections has increased in many countries recently. This is especially true for France and Spain, but also in Germany has increased in the past two weeks the number of new infections continuously. The authors
Bernd pastures Steiner and Dr. Marco Wagner are economists at Commerzbank and is responsible for the US-analysis.the Second wave: against actions of the government...
If this Trend continues in the coming weeks and indeed, a second wave of Infection emerging, the governments may well help to toughen the state's counter-measures. However, you are likely to try because of the experiences from the spring, to keep the impact on the economy as low as possible. Consequently, the governments should try to prevent a General lock-downs for as long as possible, and instead, regional - and sector-specific measures.
the measures in Germany are likely to be more restrained than in many other countries. So the increase in case numbers in Germany is significantly weaker than in other countries, such as in Spain or in the United States. Furthermore, Germany has maintained a high level of available capacity in the intensive care units of hospitals free.
Currently, about 260 corona are infected in intensive medical treatment and there are still over 8,000 free beds in intensive care units. So as not to Overload the health care system is threatening here, with all the consequences for the mood of the population....and "voluntary" Social Distancing
However, the economic consequences depend not only on the coercive measures by the state, but at least as strong of voluntary restrictions on the part of the consumer. Many of them avoid critical infection location as far as Restaurants or shops, as well as trips with public transport or a plane.
Commerzbank Research Portal-Risk industries account for just 7% of the German economic performance is likely to suffer in Germany, those services most under a new wave of Infection, which many people in a comparatively confined space in contact with each other. These are the business especially the hospitality or large-scale events, which, together with the also affected, the travel agents and tour operators for about 3.2 percent of the German gross value added. With 3.4 percent, the retail sector has a much larger share. However, this total seems to be – also because of a boom in the Online business to have been in April and may less under the crisis than was feared. Finally, the retail turnover stood, according to the Federal Statistical office, the average for the months of March to may, barely below the average for the past year. Create like a Pro: With the Bernecker exchange-compass, you depend on the Dax! (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge test!domestic demand in the second wave probably relatively stable ...
Thus, the domestic demand would be charged in the event of a second wave, certainly, but hardly a break-in. Would help, also, that the labour market in Germany is so far also because of the generous arrangements for short-time work in comparison to other countries, as relatively robust. In addition, the German government has certainly, in spite of the already launched massive state aid packages, the most on the means to in the event of a second wave of the current measures no longer maintain or even choose new action.... but greater dangers for the exports
threatening to do So should the German economy in the case of a General second wave of infections, the greater risk a weaker external trade. Finally, some of the most important trading partner reports currently, with France, Spain and the United States significantly increasing, or persistently high infection numbers. Alone in the USA, around nine per cent of German exports go, and a good four percent of the German gross value added depend on the local demand. Commerzbank Research Portal A quarter of German exports go in Corona-risk countries
After France, the second most important trading partner, to flow further eight per cent of German exports and two percent of German value added. Also Italy could be a risk factor. Although the infection rates were last consistently low. But as a popular holiday destination, the risk is relatively high, that even in Italy, the Virus will again spread. A total of seven percent of the German gross value added are almost in the risk. Chief financial officer - Live will-Online-conference on 3. August!
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Commerzbank Research Portal automotive, chemical and pharmaceutical industry, particularly the importance of these markets for the individual sectors of industry is affected in very different ways. The largest share of gross value added deliveries in the examined four countries in the "other transport equipment". However, the aircraft is likely to play a major role, where the demand due to the pandemic and the resulting crisis in the air travel is anyway very low.
More a second wave is likely to depend rather beat in the automotive industry, where almost a quarter of the gross value added of the final demand in these four countries. This applies all the more, as consumers are likely to save in the case of a new aggravation of the pandemic, first of all, in the case of durable consumer goods such as cars. Also for the pharmaceutical industry, the U.S. market is extremely important, and you should but obviously under a pandemic less suffering than most other sectors.conclusion: Still a long way to
probably The again increasing wind due to the widespread rise in infection is likely to decelerate to pay in may and June, substantial recovery in the economy soon. The way back to the starting level will not prolong this, even if we assume a further decline in the economy. The gross domestic product will reach only in 2022 back to pre-crisis level.
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