never seen before ! Never in the History of France of the elections will be held in conditions that are as incredible as these municipal. Never a second ballot will be held three months after the first round. Citizens, to your polls ! The vote in the Sunday, June 28, will be essentially local, and it would be hazardous to extrapolate from national. But the results will give some indication on the reconfiguration policy.
Reconnect with democratic life
The first tower, as it is known, has been ruined by a health crisis. True, he has permitted the election of 30 400 mayors – of which 18.6% women in municipalities of over 1,000 inhabitants, or almost all. 466 communes of over 20,000 inhabitants, 226 have elected their mayor as early as 15 march. 240 games, therefore, will take place on the 28th June. 3 985 lists are competing in 1 416 municipalities of over 1,000 inhabitants, more than half of the fighting pits three lists. Those who have their hands on the final results belong to the silent majority, which is rather stayed in her home on 15 march. With a rate of 55,34 %, the first round resulted in a failure to record : almost 20 percentage points more than in 2014. The participation in the vote will once again be the great unknown of the election. And will weigh heavily in the results.
Check out the interactive map of the results of the first round
A defeat is expected for the presidential majority
even Before the voters express themselves at the summit of power in the case is already booked : the president's party, little movement anchored locally, will be very few Walkers at the head of cities. With the exception of Coal, Lons-le-Saunier or la Roche-sur-Yon with Luc Bouard, for example. Of course, one may associate the victory of François Bayrou, president of MoDem, provided Pau. And those of mayors "Macron-compatible" such as Christian Estrosi in Nice or re-elected handily in the first round, Christophe Béchu, to Angers, Arnaud Péricard to Saint-Germain-en-Laye... In a number of cities – Nice, Toulouse, Lyon... –, LREM has made an alliance with the LR, taking the risk of eroding the "at the same time" macronien and unseat the left. In such a context, the result of Prime minister Edouard Philippe in le Havre will be, of course, scrutinized.
ecologists are they managers ?
Yannick Jadot, the patron of Europe Ecology-The Greens (EELV), has spared no effort to support the different lists bearing the colors of his movement. He plays big in this local election, which would allow him to move at top speed in the organization of his party and make it a launch pad for the presidential election of 2022. But first, it is important to anchor the party in the country and demonstrate its ability to manage an ecology of everyday life. For the moment, EELV could not be proven on a large scale in a city : Grenoble. The outgoing mayor Eric Piolle should be re-elected, but he remains known as the " khmer green ", for his bigotry in his municipal management. In the meantime, ecologists are able to bring back into the fold at the end of these regional several other cities, and not the smallest : Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse, Strasbourg, Tours. You can associate the Bordeaux, even if the mayor Nicolas Florian appears to be in a more favourable position that the ecologist Pierre Hurmic – its outcome, in any case, will weigh in from management. Environmentalists threaten the indéboulonnable Alain Clays at Poitiers, and behind as Martine Aubry in Lille, even if the socialist is a particular favorite.
EELV : party-pivot to a left-remapping
beyond the program, there is another issue, more political for the movement of Yannick Jadot : be the party pivot in the recomposition of the left. In Lyon, Marseille, Toulouse and Strasbourg, in particular, ecologists have taken the lead in lists of the coalition, dubbed often the "citizens" – while bringing together activists, seasoned veterans of the policy, bringing together all the forces of the left, in a very wide spectrum : PS, PC, BIA, collective associations. The list of the Spring in marseille, led by the doctor Michèle Rubirola, is a case in point. Just as the Archipelago citizen in Toulouse, which also brews large, which may pose, if it is to prevail, real worries in the municipal governance. To note that the socialists in toulouse is fractured on this second round – the quarrels of the ego are not for nothing – each supporting Archipelago – as the former mayor, supporter of Benoît Hamon, Pierre Cohen, or senator Claude Raynal –, other, putting them in retirement – including the old head of list, Nadia Pellefigue, whose silence is not neutral as the vice-president of the regional council is rooted in the landscape –, and still others lending their support to the current mayor, Jean-Luc Moudenc.
Read also Municipal to Lyon : the Greens are waiting for a historic victory
RN and BIA : test local
The national Rally and France insubordinate seem rather pull fruit out of the current crisis, which, however, on paper, would have been to their benefit. These two movements that show the muscles are struggling to take root locally. Sins of youth ? In any case, the RN, which, for years, seeks to promote a " lepénisme in the field ", seems a bad way to get some new trophies. The efforts focus on Perpignan, where is engaged the member of the european parliament, former number 2 of the Party, Louis Aliot. If this city of more than 100 000 inhabitants fell in the pot frontiste, this would be a brilliant stroke. But the match with the mayor (LR) outgoing Jean-Marc Pujol is much tighter than the forecasts thought it would be. Other is symbolic : Moissac in the Tarn-et-Garonne, city of the Righteous for having been the refuge of many Jews during the war, and at the heart of the fief radical of the family Baylet (owner of the La Dépêche du Midi). Or Vauvert, a bastion of the left it also, in the countryside in the camargue.
on The side of France, disobedient, and attempts to recover his health after the slap of the european. But the movement of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is struggling to gain a foothold, it has played stealth and sneaks in lists " citizens ", following the good old strategy – which has proven itself – of the cuckoo.
LR and PS : stop the bleeding
The Former World, still green (in the sense of maturity) ? Dormant at the national level, the traditional parties of the right and the left hope that these municipal their will breathe a bit of political oxygen in order to continue their reconstruction is slow and difficult, and not to be out of the game for the upcoming elections, departmental, regional, up to the presidential election of 2022. The PS update on his candidate in a good position to stay at the head of the metropolitan cities as powerful as Paris (Anne Hidalgo), Lille (Martine Aubry), Nantes, Johanna Rolland), Rennes (Nathalie Appéré)... The women, who remember are only 18.6 per cent among the mayors of the municipalities of over 1,000 inhabitants, the future of French socialism ? The PS has in its viewfinder other strongholds, such as The le Mans (Stéphane Le Foll), Brest, François Cuillandre), Rouen (Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol), Saint-Denis, Reunion (Ericka Bareigts), and hope for the victory of Mathieu Klein, engaged in a duel very tight with the mayor of Nancy and president of the radical Party), Laurent Hénart, or even the revenge of Michael Delafosse in Montpellier in the face of Philippe Saurel – this will be difficult... Among The Republicans, the municipal already represent a good vintage, having regard to the state in which Christian Jacob has found the party rolled by the rout of French prime minister François Fillon at the presidential election and the policy errors of the era Wauquiez which resulted in the low score of the list Bellamy in the european. The winds would again become they the carriers ?
regardless of his final score, the remontada spectacular Rachida Dati, who has led a campaign going to Paris, is good for the morale of the activists manhandled them in recent times. Jean-Luc Moudenc in Toulouse, Martine Vassal in Marseille, François-Noël Buffet at Lyon – ally to the former boss of the city, and first of macronistes Gérard Collomb, are engaged in bitter fighting. But the LR are expected to bolster their positions, in the symbolic cities such as Nice – Christian Estrosi, should be re-elected in an armchair, Saint-Étienne (Gaël Perdriau), Mulhouse (Michele Lutz), Orléans, Serge Grouard), for example. Most importantly, the party put on the baptismal font by Nicolas Sarkozy affirms its presence in medium-sized towns, where many of his councillors were re-elected handily in the first round – like the Cannes David Lisnard (88 % of the vote) or the president of the Association of mayors of France, and possible présidentiable, Troyes, François Baroin. At a time when decentralisation (re)becomes an axis of management of the country, these local elected officials can ensure the Republicans a lifeline.