No absolute majority is not reached the second round of the municipal elections in Marseille. Of course, Michèle Rubirola (Spring in marseille, it is the union of the left and of environmentalists) is in the lead with 42 councillors, but the majority is 51 votes.
Rubirola has been overtaken by Martine Vassal (LR), which can count on 39 votes. The ex-socialist Samia Ghali is " maker of queen ", with its 8 voices when Bruno Gilles (DVD), and his 2 voices are in ambush, as Lisette Narducci (1 votes). The FN is in his corner with 9 votes.
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Marseille has always been a laboratory of the French policy. It is in this city that strength to be regularly beaten by the socialist Gaston Defferre, Jean-Claude Gaudin (UDF) and Renaud Muselier (BPR) have decided, in 1992, to hear in the early laps, thus laying the foundations of the UMP (now LR). It was also here that, for the first time in an election in France, a mayor has been elected without the support of a political party (Robert Vigouroux, 1989), as did later Emmanuel Macron to the presidential election. It is also where, yet came in third in the local elections in 1953, Gaston Defferre, was elected mayor.
It is still here that, at the election of the president of the urban community in 2008, Renaud Muselier, yet a majority in number of the elect, was defeated by the socialist Eugene Caselli. It is always here that, in the local elections of 2014, the head of the list of the 2nd sector, Lisette Narducci, after the left has swung to the right between the two towers to allow Jean-Claude Gaudin (RL) to maintain the absolute majority. This is where, in addition, that has been coined "the abstention caring" allowing Gaudin to pass its records to the majority on the regional council from 1992 to 1998. And it is here again that the right has tried an alliance with the Front national (the regional council, 1986).
This year, the most likely hypothesis is that of an agreement between Michèle Rubirola and the ex-socialist Samia Ghali. But it will also convince the various left Lisette Narducci to get the absolute majority of the 101 councillors. And thus be able to govern. Then, in this city where reality is often stranger than fiction, an overview of the assumptions (even the craziest) is required.
The RN decides to make a "political stunt," national
The victory of Louis Aliot in Perpignan with candidates who are not encartés the RN sign the triumph of his policy of rapprochement with the right. Stéphane Ravier leaves to twist the arm. Without even warn Martine Vassal, it brings its nine votes to the party The Republicans (the election of the mayor is a mandatory secret ballot). Uproar in the chamber and in the Hexagon ! Nicolas Sarkozy comes out of his diet in the media, Alain Juppé was going beyond its duty reserve member of the Constitutional Council, even if Martine Vassal resigned in the aftermath. Marine Le Pen lambasted in all media, the right, which refuses the outstretched hand and chooses to deliver the second city of France to the ultra-left.
Read also national Gathering : Louis Aliot, the tree that hides the forest ?
Martine Vassal renounces
on The day of the election of the mayor, or Martine Vassal or Michèle Rubirola have obtained the absolute majority in the first two rounds. The third round is played by relative majority. But the tradition wants that the candidates beaten in the first two rounds does not represent the third. Martine Vassal, whose legitimacy is already undermined because it has lost the 4th sector, the bastion of the historic right, announces the nomination of Lionel Royer-Perreaut, which has retained its 5th sector, or Julien Ravier, who has kept to the right, the 6th, or even of David Galtier, who took the RN on the 7th. As the campaign was particularly violent between Martine Vassal, and the Republican dissident Bruno Gilles, the two voices of the latter can more easily bring on a Republican other than Martine Vassal. The voice of Lisette Narducci can be negotiated.
Benedict Payan elected mayor
For the same reasons as above, Michèle Rubirola, who does not dream of becoming mayor when she looks in the mirror in the morning but was caught up in the events, waives the right to apply for the third round of voting. Then it remains two possibilities : Sophie Camard, but, in his own camp, his functions as member and substitute of the Untamed Jean-Luc Mélenchon are heavy, while the socialist Benedict Payan may seem more consensual.
Samia Ghali is the head of the Spring marseille
This is not, by far, the most likely hypothesis, but let's see : Samia Ghali agrees to a pact of governance, with the Spring in marseille... On condition that it take the lead. This would not be a first. It has been said above that Gaston Defferre had done in 1953. In addition, the ex-socialist has never hidden that she could work with Renaud Muselier, president RL of the regional council, which could encourage some elected republicans to the list of Vassal to say that, finally, to take everything, why not ?
Samia Ghali joins Martine Vassal
This is not very likely, but here, where everything is possible, why Samia Ghali would not make it not his voice at Martine Vassal (LR) ? Of course, the mayor of the 8th sector has long been PS. But the right wing of the PS. And the explanation is all found : Marseille is a city, too ill, too poor to suffer even ideological differences. To the extent that the regional council and the county council are right, it is necessary that the city is also so that the communities do not engage in squabbles politicardes but work together in a common movement to save the second city of France.
He will then rule
Still, when the mayor will be elected, the difficulties will only begin. He – or she – does not have the absolute majority and will therefore have to negotiate a "governance compact" to be adopted, his / her records. Pact, which can take two forms : a vote on a part of the opponents in favor of cases presented by the relative majority or at least a forbearance allowing the relative majority of see its folders adopted even if they have not obtained 51 % of the votes of the councillors. As we said earlier, Jean-Claude Gaudin, had obtained such an abstention benevolent socialists led by François Bernardini regional council between 1992 and 1998. But here, it will be the successor of Gaudin, who will be at the helm.
