As of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is desired, made in Egypt, the parliamentarians of this Assembly unanimously the way for a military intervention in Libya. It is to "defend the national security against criminals and armed militias and foreign terrorist elements". A further escalation now threatens?

it is Clear that the decision is the risk of direct clashes with Turkey is increasing, at least. Ankara supports the UN-recognized "government of National Agreement" under Prime Minister Fajis al-Sarradsch in Tripoli. Cairo, however, is - along with Russia and the United Arab Emirates - for the rebel General Khalifa Haftar, which is connected with the so-called Parliament-in-Exile in the ostlibyschen Tobruk.

Both sides prepare themselves according to the Arabic media of a possible collision, even if not necessarily with their own troops. Ankara has brought in addition to the Turkish military, thousands of fighters from Syria into the country and the government of Al-Sarradsch enables previously unexpected military successes. Egypt, according to the newspaper "Rai Al-Youm," on equip, among the Libyan tribes of the massif.

Egypt's "red line"

next, Al want-Sarradschs troops in Sirte, the city and the airbase Jufra take. Thus, a "red line would be crossed for Egypt final," had President Al-Sisi recently. It is not only Oil facilities to the East of Sirte. Al-Sisi also fears that the Turkish or Turkish-controlled troops could advance directly to the Libyan-Egyptian border area. As if on cue, had asked Libyan tribal leaders and the government-in-exile in Tobruk, Egypt publicly to Intervene.

According to the tone in Egypt's state-controlled media, is currently attracting. So was reading in a commentary, the newspaper "Youm7" three "historical enemies" to the country to see: Ethiopia, Egypt, with a dam the water of the Nile abgrabe; Qatar, the Finance supposedly all against Egypt directed plans - and finally Turkey, which is threatening the Western border of the country. "Is what is currently happening in Sinai, in Libya and the Nile dam, a random temporal coincidence, or it was planned with great care?", it is said in the commentary. A response to those in Cairo is quite common conspiracy theories, suppressed by the author, but announced with a healthy Dose of Patriotism Egyptian opposition.

Conflicting interests

The current Situation is as precarious as a threat, says Tim Eaton, researcher at the British Think Tank "Chatham House" on the Economics of the war in Libya. He feared that Al-Sarradsch and Turkey threats from Egypt's only due to impress. Egypt and Turkey are persecuted in Libya, each for a whole bunch of interests that are hardly compatible with each other.

Turkey wants to support not only the Libyan government in Tripoli, but also the Islamist-oriented forces in the country, says Eaton. As you pursue economic interests in the Form of a favourable position for future contracts in Libya and: "Turkey has used the support of the unity government gained leverage to strengthen the Turkish point of view on the dispute over drilling rights in the Eastern Mediterranean."

Egypt is not a concern, however, only to its territorial security, says Eaton: "The Egyptian policy has also been an ideological Element: it sees the Muslim brotherhood, and all this loosely connected actors as an existential threat, must you resist." In particular, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyib Erdogan is in Cairo as one of its key supporters in the Region. And also of Libya Premier Al-Sarradsch is perceived as a kind of agent of the Muslim brotherhood, for its rival Haftar, a bulwark against the Islamists.

armies of high impact strength

Great military power, is both the NATO-country Turkey and Egypt - both armies are among the strongest in the Region. In a recent Ranking of the "Global Firepower Index" by 2020, Egypt takes one of the world's 139 armies at least rank 9. Are listed 920.000 soldiers, 215 combat aircraft and 4295 tank. The Turkish army is close behind in 11th place, and is only slightly weaker: of 735,000 soldiers, 206 combat aircraft, 2622 tank.

Nasser Zouhir, Advisor for international relations at the "Geneva centre for Political and Diplomatic Studies", expected, yet no full-scale military confrontation between the two countries. "Instead, it could come to quick, short clashes, with both sides to demonstrate their strength, to come back to a political solution," said Zouhir in the DW. With his threatening gesture against Turkey and their Libyan allies Egypt might also want to initiate more intensive efforts of the international Libya-diplomacy for its own benefit.

Weak role of the EU

The German foreign Minister Heiko Maas has in the past few days, both Turkish "provocations in the Eastern Mediterranean" as well as the decision of the Egyptian Parliament, criticized. Decisions on military operations the guarantor is always the risk of escalation, said Maas, and campaigned with his Greek counterpart Nikos Dendias for demilitarised zones around Sirte, and Jufra.

have, However, contributed to the European Appeals and initiatives so far, only a little to the settlement of the conflict. The German defence Minister Annegret Kramp-karrenbauer admitted on Wednesday in an Interview with DW: The example of Libya to show, "how it is limited in its ability to act is, if you have no presence," she said.

The European countries have, unfortunately, shown that they were either unwilling or unable to make the necessary efforts to be applied - says Libya expert Tim Eaton. "Now the development is in the hands of States that support the rival actors on the ground directly." In addition to Turkey and Egypt, the United Arab Emirates - and, not least, Russia.

author: Kersten Knipp

*The post "Libya: Is military conflict between Egypt and Turkey?" published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.