Cheap calculus: How to Trump a postal reform is trying to stay in office

it Is possible that the next US President is elected because of shortcomings in the U.S. Mail by the house of representatives? Yes. This is the script for a pol

Cheap calculus: How to Trump a postal reform is trying to stay in office

it Is possible that the next US President is elected because of shortcomings in the U.S. Mail by the house of representatives? Yes. This is the script for a political Thriller, which extends at least in the realm of the Possible. And for some of Donald Trump to see the writing of the script. Leading Role: Donald Trump. In A Supporting Role: Louis DeJoy. And as a special guest: Chaos and the courts.

President Trump does not hold so that even behind the mountain. He explains that he blocked funding for the US Post office, because he could bind in this way, election fraud. The less postal voters, the less choice the crude presidential logic is cheating behind his Argument. This is factually nonsensical, politically dangerous, but potentially very effective. About the experts

Prof. Dr. Thomas Jäger holds the chair for International politics and foreign policy at the University of Cologne since 1999. His research interests are in international relations, and American and German foreign policy.

The Democrats are foaming - helpless

warns The Democrats not ship just the story of how Donald Trump is driving the Post behind: How he Scam constantly before the election, as he has established a loyal Postmaster General, as these twenty long-term, experienced employees are replaced, and the Post thus weakens, as it prohibits Overtime work, as he's thinking aloud about to triple the postage for the ballots tripled. In addition, now also sorting machines are to be dismantled. The American Post is to the political crisis. But why?

What's behind it and why this is important

President Trump one of his loyal supporters, Louis DeJoy, has entrusted, in may of this year, with the leadership of the U.S. Mail (United States Postal Service, USPS). That DeJoy is inexperienced in post questions, may be, at least in Germany, there is no point of criticism. A political appointment. In the USA this is sometimes different, because usually the head of the Post, the post itself. That's why the Democrats are suspected to be behind the appointment of a Plan Trumps.

Because of the new postal chief has immediately began the process of restructuring the company's operations. Well, the Post profit is not profitable, and so it was that as a measure for cost reduction in Overtime, were says. At the same time the conversion of the deficit in letter-post packages should be accelerated. And higher revenue will be considered. Everything as it is in other countries usually the case.

The restructuring is over 30,000 post and almost 550.000 employees is a Huge undertaking. The only question is: Why start such a measure in the midst of the pandemic, and a few weeks before the elections for the Post such a challenge?

Post and politics

As in the US, the pandemic due to more online was purchased and delivered had to be, the time of the Reform, anyway questionable. Some suspected, Trump wool viewed in this way, the mail contract with Amazon, the prices for the Online giant. Amazon chief Jeff Bezos, the Trump-critical Washington Post belongs to, may be expected to Trump particularly spurned people. But there is more to it.

Because the Democrats suspect that Trump would like to topple about his new Post-chief DeJoy, the 30,000 post offices and the delivery of mail to the Chaos. Again and again, Trump points out that the Post office can't cope with the millions of letter ballot papers correctly. He warns that the absentee ballot corrupts the whole election process. And he oracles are consulted, that at the end of a corrupt election result would stand. Or maybe none at all?

100 million letter-votes

in the face of the pandemic, the Infected in the U.S. over 5 million known and over 150,000 victims brought, it is expected that more than 100 million citizens absentee voting request. As for the electoral processes, the Federal States are responsible, this is regulated in every state is a little different. Some States have a lot of experience with absentee ballots; others less so, but this time the fear of contagion as a letter choice basic; others claim a different reason for the letter choice that is not enough fear of Corona in there. The is complex and it would be a miracle if even in the night of the election became known, who won the election.

will last, given the over 100 million expected letter to voters, the Counting is longer. And it is – because there is already a bet – controversial election districts give. Legions of observers and cohorts of lawyers are now ready to document any deviation. The alleged losers of the Election will be able to build your contesting the election. And because Trump will do anything to be a further four years in the White house, it will be all done, a victory by the Democrats to challenge.

choice of people without a majority

But how to do it more when the count is stagnant or controversial remains? For example, because there are very few volunteers, because of the often elderly volunteers to be this time, may remain remote. Even if the outcome of the election should still be controversial, even if courts should be in December with the clarification is concerned, are three data: On 8. December has to be decided who has won in a Federal state elections. 14. December get together those choice people in the States that were determined in the elections. And on 6. January 2021 is one of the vote in the house of representatives out. Who has 270 votes, is elected.

but What if none of the two candidates comes to the required number, because the result is in some States, is still controversial and the choice people have not been sent out of this state yet? Because it is possible that States will lose their votes in the Electoral College, if you can't report a result.

the choice of people body no majority, there was in the history of the United States, so far only once. At the time, it was the fact that more than two candidates stood for election. Now it could be that not all of the choice people are determined. It comes so that none of the candidates receives the required 270 votes, elected through the General election, some people are just not candidates. The Ball is then in the house of representatives on the same day, the 6. January 2021, about the candidates to vote on. The book of our experts, Thomas hunter (display): "the end of The American era: Germany and the new world order" on Amazon.

every state a voice,

The house of representatives then elects the President. The Democrats have until then, a comfortable majority of 232 to 198, compared to the Republicans. Its 435 members are not voting but every man for himself, but the logic of the choice of the people-body, then here, too. Because the choice of people to be sent from each state. Whoever has the majority in a state gets all the votes of the election of the people. So the house of representatives this logic is divided in the following in the members of the individual Federal States and select your state a candidate who then receives the voice of the state. There are in the house of representatives, not 435 votes, but 50. Because there are 50 States.

The 36 members of Texas must agree on a candidate, as well as the 53 members of California. Easier the States that send only one member to have it. If you look at the majority of relationships within the members of every state, it is exciting. A few examples: Arizona: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans; Florida, 13 Democrats and 14 Republicans; Pennsylvania, 9 Democrats and 8 Republicans.

Republicans have the majority

If one counts the list of the 50 Federal States, the result is: in 26 Federal States, the Republican members of the majority, in 23 the democratic. Michigan is left out, because here are 7 are 7 members.

This bill, however, two important assumptions. Firstly, the majority are, as the above examples show, is often scarce; it would have to be really tuned in solely along the party line. Secondly, the Republican deputies, who represent, alone, a Federal state is not expected to be, a renegade. And these are a few: Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming. These five members have it alone in the Hand, the voice of your state to submit.

Of of post-reform to presidential election

President Trump Pursues this calculus? He wants to evoke with a post-reform, at an inopportune time a ballot can be challenged at all corners and Ends, because of the large amount of the votes of absentee voters will not be properly counted, which is why in the choice of people body no candidate receives the majority?

The answer would be clear: the house of representatives must choose the President. And if all the party-line vote, is the President of Donald Trump.

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Updated Date: 14 August 2020, 07:27

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