After the incidents in Iran: certainties and assumptions

In Iran, it appears, again, to explosions. This Time it hit facilities in the capital, Tehran. Local media and eyewitnesses reported on Friday (10.07.) in the s

After the incidents in Iran: certainties and assumptions

In Iran, it appears, again, to explosions. This Time it hit facilities in the capital, Tehran. Local media and eyewitnesses reported on Friday (10.07.) in the social media about the many detonations in the city, Shahrak-eGharb and Garmdareh. A was "quite loud" and have led to a power outage.

The authorities of the country declare, however, that there had been no explosions. A spokeswoman admitted, however, in the event of power failure.

Since the end of June there are constantly reports about similar incidents. Details were mostly kept secret. About the Explosion at the Iranian nuclear plant in Natans, the extent of the damage is now known. Apparently, the Detonation has destroyed almost the entire building. The Iranian atomic energy organization(AEOI) said"considerable damage". Other analysts confirm the findings.

"Considerable damage,"

The building in which the Explosion took place, served, especially the uranium enrichment and the manufacture and Test of appropriate centrifuges. It had to be completely torn down and built from scratch, in an analysis of the Israeli "Institute for Science and International Security" (ISIS). The Institute has assessed the damage on the basis of satellite photos.

The plant in Natans is provided for the mass production of different centrifuge types. Every year, thousands of such centrifuges would be produced, it said. "Although the Explosion and the fire did not have the ability of Iran to the use of modern centrifuges in force, may apply to the destruction but as a huge setback for the ability of Iran, in the coming years, advanced centrifuges in the large-scale use," the ISIS analysis.

cyber attack?

the incident in Natans, an accident or a Sabotage? Currently, many theories are circulating. Some notes on discussions currently in favour of a radical Change in the load could have brought the transformers to explode, writes the Austrian military analyst Markus Reisner, in an analysis for the middle East magazine "Zenith". "This suggests a targeted cyber-attack."

The Explosion in Natans was just one of several unexpected incidents in critical infrastructure. A total of six incidents - fires, explosions and chemical accidents have been known, such as in a clinic in Tehran, a power plant in Ahvaz, and a petrochemical plant in Mahshahr. The detonations in civilian facilities may be the collateral damage of a cyber attack.

Who are the men behind?

an Open question to the authors of the Explosion is currently. "The investigation by experts and security forces are still in progress. Therefore, it is still too early to discuss the exact cause of the incident to discuss," said the Iranian spokesman, Abbas Mussawi foreign Ministry on Thursday (09.07.).

it is probable that in Iran, but that Israel is for the destruction responsible. "The media, the Explosion in connection with Israel, want to help this Regime to improve its Image,"said Mousavi.

From Israel came during the last days only half-hearted denial. "We will take measures, which one should not speak," said foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi. Also defense Minister Benny Gantz remained vague: "Not every incident in Iran is with us."

it is certain that the Israeli government sees Iran as a significant potential Threat. In Jerusalem only the idea of it is a concern that Iran might have one day about nuclear weapons. Threatened you will feel by the Iranian presence in Syria. In the course of the war in Syria, Iran has taken, there is always a fixed foot. According to Israel, has already been dozens of attacks against positions of the Iranian revolutionary guards and other forces in Syria to be flown. Also, the Lebanese Hezbollah has rearmed with Iranian support solid.

key 2002

In an article for the Israeli daily newspaper "Haaretz" noted the Journalist Yossi Melman, the explosions and fire outbreaks of the past few days in a larger historical context. Back in Melmans presentation to the year 2002. At that time, we have recognized that the Iran Natans build a plant for uranium enrichment. To the will of Tehran to become a nuclear power, have passed in Tel Aviv and Washington, now no longer in doubt.

In consequence, we have undertaken a number of Sabotage and acts of Destruction. In this context, the computer virus Stuxnet had been used. This put in the year 2010, among other things, those Computer lame, which controlled in Natans, the centrifuges.

the recent acts of sabotage, writes Melman, could go back to Israel. To help members might be ethnic minorities in Iran have been standing in strong Opposition to the government in Tehran.

cooperation with ethnic minorities in Iran

A co-operation of Israel with these groups was suggested by the former Mossad chief in his term of office, repeated, Melman more. The statements of Ministers Aschkenasis and Gantz have in this context, therefore, a new meaning, that the recent acts of sabotage could have been carried out living in Iran the regime's opponents. "Israel", concluded Melman concludes, "is doing absolutely everything Possible to prevent that Iran is pushing its nuclear program forward, while at the same time, prone to accidents and terrorist attacks."

But regardless of whether Israel is for the acts of sabotage are responsible or not, a, as Melman, fixed already: "The fact that the Iranians Israel accuse, increases the Prestige of the Israeli secret service. At the same time, it is detrimental to the country's morale as well as the self-understanding of Iran."

Similar to read in the "Jerusalem Post". The Detonation should go back to acts of sabotage, making this the Islamic Republic, especially one thing clear: "she is vulnerable, that their most sensitive facilities can be reached and attacked."

author: Kersten Knipp

*The contribution of "between cases in Iran: certainties and assumptions" published by Deutsche Welle. Contact with the executives here.

Deutsche Welle
Updated Date: 10 July 2020, 10:26

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