A legislature in the wire by an arithmetic which complicates the key reforms

The arithmetic of parliamentary and the statement of intent of all the parties represented in the Congress to announce a legislature full of difficulties. If th

A legislature in the wire by an arithmetic which complicates the key reforms

The arithmetic of parliamentary and the statement of intent of all the parties represented in the Congress to announce a legislature full of difficulties. If there is no last-minute surprises in the endowment, the socialist Pedro Sanchez faces a mandate subjected to all kinds of threats from the early days. The debate of investiture has served to confirm their fears: “I'm Not going to have a loyal opposition,” he said. And some of the loyalties with the now account are slippery.

Gabriel Ruffian, a spokesman of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) -13 deputies, crucial for the Government to take forward the main legislation that has been promised— told from the parliamentary tribune: “If there is no table [of negotiations on the future of Catalonia] there is no legislature”. In 15 days it should take place the first meeting between the Governments of Pedro Sanchez and Quim Torra. The PSOE is intended to convince the Executive of the Catalan seek an agreement to improve their self-government, which would usher in a statutory reform that should pass Congress of Deputies and be subject to a consultation in Catalonia. ERC wants to get out of the negotiation a compromise to authorize a referendum of self-determination. Two approaches are very spaced to a negotiation of which depends in part on the future of the legislature.

it is Not the only threat that will manage the Executive socialist to move forward. Hope Sanchez has two figures: 176 and 210. You will need the absolute majority of the Chamber (176 deputies) to approve organic laws; to require the support of three-fifths of the Congress (210 members) in order to renew institutional bodies: the General Council of the Judiciary, the Supreme Court, the Constitutional Court, the Defender of the People...

Locking of the judiciary. The Government of Sanchez is facing a situation similar to that suffered by the Executive of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero when he tried to renew the General Council of the Judiciary. For nearly two years (between November 2006 and September 2008) this institution was in office, and ruled by a conservative majority. The PP was blocked for two years renewal. At that time, the Judiciary became a battering ram against the socialist Government. To elect the 20 members of the Council (12 judges and eight lawyers of recognized prestige) required majorities of three-fifths in the Congress and in the Senate. Without the votes of the PP, it is not possible to renewal. The lock allows you to keep in the hands of the conservative control of the Council and that the magistrate Carlos Lesmes follow as president of the Supreme. The Council of the Judiciary will decide in the next few weeks, the name of the three judges who will occupy the vacancies in the Criminal Chamber of the Supreme, a body key to settle legal proceedings that affect political —appeals against the conviction to the PP for the case Gürtel or against the disabling of Torra for disobedience— and the challenge of independence of Catalonia.

The Constitutional Court also must renew now to four of the 12 judges. The PP has in its hand the possibility to block or agree to a renewal where you dealt with the PSOE of the four posts, with what the body would keep the conservative majority that already dominates now.

General Budgets of the State. The Government needs more ayes than nays to approve Budgets in 2020, a key tool in order to ensure a certain stability. Sanchez rushed the advance election in April 2019 because he brought down the accounts that had been agreed with United we Can. Exit with success of the next budget debate would give enough oxygen to Sanchez for a guaranteed number of years of mandate.

New organic laws. The reform of the law of universal justice, that the Government of the PP is limited to the maximum, or the repeal of the law of citizen security, dubbed by the left as a gag law, are two promises of Sanchez, which, despite the need for an absolute majority, can go forward without excessive problems.

More than ever

The repeal of the labour reform that the Government of Mariano Rajoy undertook in his first year in office has some administrative procedures more complicated, as it requires a previous negotiation with the unions and the employers. The entrepreneurs have already expressed their rejection of the commitments announced by Pedro Sanchez. In the Congress, the Government would be sufficient with a simple majority (more ayes than noes) to take forward one of the leading measures of the legislature.

even Rajoy, in his second term as president, when he lost the absolute majority, had this level of difficulty. A motion of censure him away from power when he had managed to pass a few General Budgets of the State, a insurance of stability that didn't help him. Sanchez has an advantage: it is almost impossible, with the current settings of the Camera, the PP leader, Paul Married, to seek the 176 votes needed to come out with success of that effort.

Date Of Update: 07 January 2020, 01:00

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