The figure makes cold in the back. The containment measures taken to cope with the Covid-19 would have helped avert 3.1 million deaths in 11 european countries, finds a study published on Monday June 8, 2020. Carried out by Imperial College London, that scientists advising the british government on the health crisis, this study analyzes the main measures taken in 11 countries, including France, such as the banning of public events, travel restrictions or the closure of businesses and schools.

"Measure the effectiveness of these measures is important, given their economic and social impact," noted its authors, while the extent of the collateral effects of the containment is regularly emphasized and that certain voices, particularly in the United Kingdom, to demand the acceleration of the removal of restrictions.

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The researchers compared the number of deaths on the database of the european Centre of prevention and control of diseases with the number of deaths that there would have been in the absence of control measures, as estimated by mathematical modeling. The latter conclude that the measures put in place have enabled us to avoid about 3.1 million deaths in these countries. Their article, published in the journal Nature, also believed that they led to a reduction of 82 % in average of the reproductive rate of the virus (the number of new people infected by each infected person), to bring it below 1, the threshold below which the number of new cases decreases.

12 to 15 million people have been infected

The researchers calculate that at the may 4, 12 to 15 million people have been infected by the Covid-19 (or 3.2% to 4% of the population on average, with significant variations depending on the country). Belgium would thus the rate of infection is higher, with 8 % of the population having contracted the coronavirus, followed by Spain (5.5 %), United Kingdom (5.1 % ) and Italy (4.6 %). This figure would be 3.4% in France. Conversely, only 710 000 Germans might have contracted the virus, or 0.85 % of the population.

The authors stress that the measures are being followed according to a schedule tight, it is difficult to assess the impact of each of them separately. They conclude, however, that "the containment has had a substantial effect" on the control of the epidemic. The 11 countries studied are Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Spain, France, Italy, Norway, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Switzerland.

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