Researchers find Change Points of the crisis - and Corona-Exit strategy

back in April, had presented to researchers from the four large German research organisations – the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Leibniz-Gem

Researchers find Change Points of the crisis - and Corona-Exit strategy

back in April, had presented to researchers from the four large German research organisations – the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Leibniz-Gemeinschaft and Max-Planck-society, a model that they had investigated the effect of the measures of the Federal government in response to the spread of Sars-CoV-2.

After your analysis on the basis of the reported infection three-time figures in Germany, points, so-called "Change Points" at which the spread of Sars-CoV-2, respectively, effectively has been reduced:

time 1: , Around 9. March. At this time, large events such as fairs and football forbidden games. The spread rate was almost halved.

time 2: To the 16. March. The propagation rate decreased by a further 40 per cent. Schools, kindergartens and most of the shops were closed.

time 3: To the 23. March. The spread rate was cut in half again. In this Phase, the contact restrictions were introduced.

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researchers warn that loosening to come quickly

In a late April Statement released, the researchers outline a possible strategy for containment of the Virus. Many of them were now critical of the resolved relaxations and fear that they might interfere with the measures of the successes achieved.

The contact restrictions around Covid-19 have broken the Simulation, the dreaded exponential spread of the Virus. "We see a clear effect of the contact lock from the 22. March, and, of course, the contribution of each individual Person,“ said Viola pries man, head of a research team from the Max Planck Institute and one of the authors in April. "Our society can really be proud of the fact that they managed this turnaround."

But they, too, considered the were loosening with skepticism. Their models have shown that the adopted in March, packages of Measures have reduced the reproduction number by about 40 per cent., but: "Now a lot of people go back to Restaurants, to the gym, we meet again more. This opens up the Virus new propagation paths . The exact course is very difficult, because the behavior of the people plays a big role," she said in an Interview with the "world".

easing may in the short term be successful in the long term, researchers have different approach

extolling man desired explains that the loosening might well achieve short-term benefits. "I do not believe, however, that the population and many politicians was at all aware of the fact that we would have the Chance to achieve long-term stable Situation – and thus a largely normal life . Now it has been decided in favour of loosening, without understanding, what are the risks of actually saying that you gambled the success of containment, and it will take significantly longer until a stable situation is reached.“

even a small increase in the rate of growth could alter the dynamics to an unstable state with exponential growth. Therefore, you have to have a watchful eye on the infections . Finally, it was about "two weeks blind" for possible worsening conditions. You miss the Moment on a knife edge even faster exponential increase could follow. Therefore, the researchers suggest: "It is important, only through the loosening of the restrictions to think about, if the number of active cases is so low that a Two-weeks-not the health care increase is a serious problem." More to the Coronavirus

Viola pries guy said on a press conference, the most sensible value, you could focus on not 50 or 30 or 100 new infections per 100,000 people was, " but really, the Null " to get to a stable Situation. Only Covid-19-free-I could go for the social life without worry again. This is also useful if you consider the collateral damage – for example, the economic.

Testing and Tracking: the best of Corona "could-be" scenario, the appearance of

extolling man therefore proposes: to bring the spread completely under control, it is necessary that is any single chain of infection post . It should be set according to the physicist, the focus on such a new infections that occur unexpectedly, the therefore, is not a well-known chain of infection back. "Actually, only such contagious are important to evaluate how well the epidemic is under control. Infections of people who are already in quarantine, if you develop symptoms, you don't have the 50 offset. These people are for the infection to happen is almost irrelevant, because you plug in with great security, no other people," she said of the "world".

It was important to press the number of the new infections so that a seamless contact tracking is possible. In addition, more heavily tested , in order not to miss any infection.

relaxations in the computer model: up to 6000 new infections are possible

the man and the team of scientists Pries have developed using your model, now also scenarios, which are the relaxations could. In the most optimistic scenario , it is assumed that, in spite of relaxed restrictions, no increase in the infection rate. This scenario is the Consideration of the fact that the contact tracking and Detection of new foci of infection could be so successful is that the spread push back although the measures were relaxed. Max Planck Institute for dynamics and self-organization are Three possible scenarios for the development of new infections after the loosening of restrictions to 11. May.

In the pessimistic scenario is believed, however, that the rate of infection doubled in about . This can be done by doubling the contacts at work, in public space and in the circle of friends . Similarly, less caution in the individual contacts can help. In the case of a doubling of the infection rate it comes to a renewed exponential increase . By July, about 6000 new infections per day would then be re-recorded.

That could be prevented, according to the glorified man, however, with a complete track . It could bring new infections", in principle, to Zero."

a Second wave is possible, but Germany can.

A preparing for second wave holds the physicist but anyhow, it is very likely, as explained in the "world"-Interview The reason for this pessimism, the relaxations, the current situation to be. At the same time it was the second wave, however, optimistic: "at Least we know then that the shaft can be pushed back. I was impressed by how well we have succeeded for the first Time.“

About the timing and strength of the next wave could only speculate: "Much will depend on whether the people's true even now in the times of the relaxations more distance and hygiene rules to comply with."

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jala/with keko and dpa
Updated Date: 22 May 2020, 07:27

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