Epidemiologist: If we don't stop this infectious Trend, it will be in the autumn is difficult

"The pandemic is not over." "We must remain vigilant." "The Figures are worrying." – The admonitory words of virologists, Minister of health and RKI appea

Epidemiologist: If we don't stop this infectious Trend, it will be in the autumn is difficult

"The pandemic is not over." "We must remain vigilant." "The Figures are worrying." – The admonitory words of virologists, Minister of health and RKI appear in a hot August in many of the German fallen on deaf ears. These are not only the self-proclaimed "thinker", not to take it with masks, intervals, and major celebrations seriously. Not to mention a voluntary quarantine after a holiday in the risk area.

the current Corona talking about-to Pay a different language: At 13.8. there were 1445 infections in a day, the highest number since the 1. May. the The active cases are over 12,000 , at 19. In July, there were just 5800.

surf tip: All the news about the Corona of a pandemic, refer to the News Ticker of FOCUS Online

The Robert Koch Institute has 9 for the four weeks to to. August, the majority of new infections (about 8600) registered in Germany: parties, family gatherings or a Job as a farmhand, were the trigger. One in every three new infections is currently declining on a journey of returnees, especially by home visits in a number of Balkan States and Turkey. The goods in the assessment period, 3,000 of the reported infections.

More:

  • RKI-list: In these countries, the majority of German travellers
  • insert Many of the returnees from Kosovo and infected: Why Corona in the Balkans rages so strong

FOCUS Online two experts asked the meaning of the current corona what is happening in Germany: the epidemiologists Ralf Reintjes of the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences (HAW) and virologists Friedemann Weber of the University of Giessen . These are your assessments.

epidemiologist Ralf Reintjes to the current Covid-19-development in Germany:

Ralf Reintjes says: "An epidemic follows a logic. It spreads, where the opportunity is offered. And we will open you the door.“

He criticizes especially that of the policy currently there are very contradictory messages are sent. There, it is hot, but the infection numbers are alarming and one must remain cautious, "but at the same time, there are efforts in North Rhine-Westphalia, a large concert to organize, or to leave the League as soon as possible with the audience take place."

And he complains: "On the one hand, the penalties for misconduct will be tightened against the Corona pads, on the other hand, important protective measures are scaled back." It would have to currently, but consistent clear signals that advise caution. The Person

Ralf Reintjes , Professor of epidemiology and health reporting at the Hamburg University of Applied Sciences. His interests lie in the study of infectious diseases, Expertise in Surveillance and Pandemic Preparedness on a national level as well as internationally (especially Europe, Asia and Africa).

With the amateurish approach to the testing of trip returnees in Bavaria, you have to prevent the missed opportunity, thousands of infections, says epidemiologist for the current Corona-rager. But in General, the Tests of travellers would have to run differently. "You can make a Test landing at the airport, but after that, a quarantine of six days to comply and then a further Test must be carried out." Only then, would also be secured, that the people have not been infected in the crush at the airport or on the plane.

Better students regularly test instead of the audience in the stadium

Also the target would need to be addressed and tested, for example in schools. Children should go back to school, but you must ensure that this is no great infection happened. "If there week individual classes would be tested, which would then be sent in case of a positive case as a Cluster in quarantine, it would be useful to test as tens of thousands of visitors to a football stadium."

The increase in the infection Trend, the it was turn to show the numbers. "We can't do everything as it had been before the pandemic," says Reintjes. "To prevent a new serious illness wave, we must as a society are other priorities."

  • number of currently Infected is rising sharply

The epidemiologist sees a basic error for the current Situation in the spring. "We had at that time, as the Numbers went down, the restrictions a little longer to maintain to hold on to and not as quickly as possible to all loosen. Then we would have come up with much lower Numbers and now have a better starting position for the autumn and Winter.“

For Ralf Reintjes, everything is now, the infection numbers to be reduced significantly: "If we can do the turnaround now, we get in autumn, higher Infection rates, but can avert that social life needs to be bumped down. If we let it run, and every day several thousand cases, then it will be very difficult in the autumn and Winter.“

virologist Friedemann Weber for the current Corona development:

a virologist Friedemann Weber is "still cautiously optimistic that the number of infections will not exceed the current Level dramatically."

Even if we currently have outbreaks all across Germany, so it was still local outbreaks. "Of a 2. Wave I would not speak, which is already a matter of definition. Rather, the 1 is. Wave, although in the meantime subsided, but never completely disappeared.“

To the Person

Friedemann Weber is a Professor of Virology and Director of the corresponding Institute at the Justus-Liebig-University in Gießen. There, he researches, among other things, to Corona - and influenza viruses.

the Test breaks down in Bavaria addressed, says the virologist, that you can't say yet what effect it will have on the infection to happen in Germany. "But 900, more of 1000 positive cases who have not learned of their infection for weeks, to fall because of the weight."

Söder after the Test debacle in Bavaria: "This is a difficult glitch"

"The constant case, the increase in the last few weeks, however, the risk of an exponential increase," says Weber. "The R-value, i.e., the statistical size, which indicates how many other people infects a of Infected, around meanders in weeks by the number 1." On the page "reproduktionszahl-corona.de" it is at 13.8. 1.05 specified. "Dangerous for the infection dynamics, it is, if the value is consistently greater than 1. Then, the number of Infected will only grow, and exponentially.“

infection numbers now must fall, otherwise the fall of delicate

And in regard to the cold Season, Friedemann Weber says: "Until the autumn of the currently significant infection numbers should decrease significantly, otherwise it could be in the autumn of of sensitive. Then again, major outbreaks are expected, and this should not be of a high infection level.“ Then there is the risk that the infection no more chains are traceable and therefore uncontrollable, it submits.

"Still, the situation is highly explosive, we are currently on a Lockdown. But we are all required to continue to take care and to not be reckless.“ Corona hits flu: now Threatens the dual-infection? Infections Lodge of the answers FOCUS Online Corona hits flu: now Threatens the dual-infection? Infections Lodge answers

Updated Date: 14 August 2020, 20:26

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