The worst is behind us ? While France is preparing to loosen its rules of containment from the 11th may next, the fear of a second wave of the outbreak of coronavirus increases. If some experts are predicting the return of the virus as inevitable, the Pr Jean-François Toussaint, researcher, director of the Institute for research in biomedicine and epidemiology of sport (Irmes), precautionary. "Currently, we do not see a second wave in any country of the world, only sporadic cases and re-imports from the pandemic phase current. Many data unknowns remain regarding this virus. The existing environment at the time where it has spread is not the same today. "
A seasonal virus ?
The Pr all saints edge, in particular, a possible correlation between the temperature and the distribution of the Covid-19. "These are in areas with temperatures around 10 degrees that the epidemic has been the most important start-up. This temperature may represent an optimum thermal : it is between 20 and 55 degrees of latitude, that focuses 90% mortality while all of the african continent only accounts 1 490 death 32 430 case this 28 April. The hypothesis of seasonality is therefore to be considered. "
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A scenario also referred to by professor Frédéric Adnet, head of the emergency department of the Avicenne hospital and the Uas of the Seine-Saint-Denis. "There may not be this second wave so much dreaded. Daily, we have noticed a drop in a very brutal new case in the emergency services. This dramatic drop, we can't quite explain it. Seasonality represents a track that should not be evicted. "All countries of the world affected by the pandemic also observe this downward slope. "In all of Europe, the pic turns out to be identical. The epidemic is in a phase of decreasing. With projections incorporating this scenario, the toll of a global coronavirus is estimated to be between 400 000 and 600 000 deaths, but the cycle of the epidemic seems to be complete in Asia and Oceania. In Europe, the evolution is similar ", explains professor Toussaint.
adapt rather than stem
The next few months seem to be uncertain about the possible resumption of the epidemic and the arrival of a possible second wave. "An outbreak depends on several factors, such as the characteristics of the virus, the behavior of society and the evolution of the climate. You can't predict exactly ", shade Dr Bernard Jomier, a general practitioner and a senator of Paris. Before continuing : "In all logic, the movement of the virus will return with the easing of the containment. The containment does not stop the spread of the epidemic. With this virus, eradication is impossible. In fact, we can't be in this strategy, because we don't have the weapons. So we need to be in an adaptation in the face of the virus. The containment, this is the weapon of the poor. To prevent a resumption of the epidemic, there is an urgent need to multiply the means of protection and to put in place a comprehensive strategy of screening and isolation. "
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The next few months will therefore be decisive for a possible second wave of the sars coronavirus. "The hubs of transportation are also hubs viral that facilitate the spread of the epidemic. It is now important to monitor South America in order to determine whether the virus could return in the form of a new wave in the autumn or next winter, " says the Pr all saints. A date, which also questions the Pr Adnet : "For the moment, these are only assumptions. If a second wave occurs in the next fall, she will be certainly less important than the first. The most important thing is not to lower the guard and to keep the measures barriers, the wearing of masks and the rules of distanciation to prevent a resumption of the virus. "
For Dr. Bernard Jomier, "the stop-and-go" as envisaged by the government to contain the epidemic and avoid a congestion of intensive care units is a good solution. Indeed, alternating periods of activity and downtime would help to avoid the saturation of the hospitals. The time required for the development of a vaccine and a treatment.
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