All the talk of 2. Corona-wave: a researcher explains why we're in a critical Phase

We developed in Germany, which half the world envies: the now not so novel Coronavirus under control. The virologist Alexander Kekulé recalled the Podcast in it

All the talk of 2. Corona-wave: a researcher explains why we're in a critical Phase

We developed in Germany, which half the world envies: the now not so novel Coronavirus under control. The virologist Alexander Kekulé recalled the Podcast in its MDR. This is what is currently on the game.

On Thursday, the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) pending 902 new infections within a day. In the days before the number of new infections exceeded the value of 500. In June, the number was mostly below it. The peak was reached in early April with more than 6000 cases in a day. In contrast, the current Figures seem quite low. However, we are stuck in a critical Phase.

  • the latest developments in The Corona of a pandemic, you can find in the Live Ticker of FOCUS Online.
If out of Hotspots wildfires

While in June, about the battle of Tönnies operating a Hotspot was, from the chains of Infection were targeted tracking that makes the experts at the RKI now a other fact to Worry: Over the whole of Germany and smaller outbreak there are increasing events, in many different counties. The most Neuinfizierte recorded in the management report of North Rhine-Westphalia (+336, status: 30.7.2020), Bavaria (+110, status: 30.7.2020) and Hesse (+89, date: 30.7.2020). Management report RKI 30.07.20 representation of the transmitted Covid-19 cases/100,000 inhabitants over 7 days in Germany by Federal state (30.07.2020, 0:00). In Federal States with a comparatively low population, even small increases can numbers the case numbers to a significant increase in the 7-day incidence

lead, Specifically, five counties report an increased incidence with more than 25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in seven days:

  • Dingolfing-Landau
  • courtyard
  • Weimar
  • Solingen
  • Dithmarschen.

In the state of schleswig-Holstein Heide (Dithmarschen) will apply so as of Saturday more stringent protective measures.

The more evenly distributed the Virus in the population, the more difficult it is to identify specific eruptions. Chains of infection are not clear, the Infected know not where they have plugged in. Since it is more difficult to reduce the spread. Management report RKI 30.07.20 To the RKI transmitted Covid-19 cases in the last 7 days in Germany to a circle and the state (n=3.968, 30.07.2020, 0:00). The cases are reported to the circle from which they were transmitted. This usually corresponds to the place of residence. Place of residence and likely site of Infection do not need to match.

fires from the hot spots of smoldering surface, endangering the health of many people and there is an Overload of the health system threatens. "In the face of rising infection numbers, I can confirm the concern of the RKI only," says Berit Long in an interview with FOCUS Online. She is responsible for the area of Clinical epidemiology in the Department of epidemiology at the Helmholtz-centre for infection research (HZI) in Braunschweig, Germany. The dynamic is changing.

it is Particularly dangerous to misjudge the threat. "In the current situation no one should underestimate the infection dynamics," explains Long. "The Virus has not become less dangerous than it was in March." Still, it has the Potential to spread rapidly. The danger of the reproduction number, which is now for several weeks at 1 and signals us. Say, an Infected person infects on average more than an additional and so the risk is increasing for an exponential distribution.

in a Panic, or realistic: As entitled to warnings prior to the second wave?

The current discussions about the second wave keeps the Epidemiologist therefore, is very realistic and by no means in a panic. "The fear is certainly justified," says Long. "In addition, the current Situation is a test phase for the autumn." Because then you will reinforce what is currently provided: The people have respiratory infections, and therefore cold symptoms such as a runny nose or a cough. The seasonal flu comes later. The clinical symptoms are very similar, so that the diseases are difficult to distinguish from Corona to.

"It is important that we get it right now to test the test capacities and the willingness to Covid-19, where to expand, that is precisely the Situation that is collected," says the Epidemiologist. An important role would be here also, the so-called Sentinel systems, using the participating practices voluntarily smears from patients with respiratory infections one of the ends. This would be better expanded and equipped. In this way, we would have "early warning signals".

't speak as to Why the expert, though, of the "second wave"

"It is possible that this is the beginning of a 'second wave'. It may also be that we get the Situation now in the handle and again in the fall with a possible 'second wave' is coming. By the term the second wave, the image is created but that we must now, once again, as in the first – through something and it's over but also really,“ explains Long. "The course is not so. In how many waves of such a pandemic where something we can judge in retrospect, instead of the recorded pandemics is more likely.“

that's Why they prefer to speak of an increase of infection-causing Situation, numbers, or a concern. Corona could accompany us, anyway, in waves, until we have a vaccine.

at the same time, the discussion on the second shaft to be shortened slightly. Because in order to assess whether the infection happened is dangerous, it involves different parameters.

According to these parameters, the researcher assesses how dangerous the situation is to be paid
  • Infection: you are now higher than they were, on average, in the past few weeks.
  • reproduction number: is quite stable over 1. That is, we have a high diffusion speed.
  • number of Tests: The number to Test, overall, increased slightly. The proportion of positive Tests of which does not increase, however, is still quite strong. The calms of-date. It becomes critical if the Test-increases Positive Rate extremely.
  • number of people with symptoms of a respiratory disease: comparison with the data of the national reference centre of Influenza, the documented about: How many visits are there? How many respiratory infections are there? Here you can see a rise in acute respiratory infections. There is a rise in respiratory diseases in comparison to April and may, is currently. Currently, the curve is not yet reading, whether this is in the usual seasonal framework or beyond. However, there are currently mostly "normal" cold viruses that plague us.
    Long view, it could be deduced that the number of Tests increases even more. Because solely on the basis of the clinical picture, it was not always distinguish whether it is a light Covid-19-history, or another respiratory infection.
  • system load: Here we see, for example, in the Register for intensive care beds DIVI yet no increase in utilisation.
  • death toll: are As well little, the death figures increased. The would pay the Epidemiologist also at the beginning of the rise of Infection is not yet to be expected. We see here a strong increase, this would be a very clear warning signs.
  • conclusion: of The currently alarming parameters is continuous and no longer regionally limited increase in infection numbers, with the additional fear and uncertainty that a lot of tour returnees, both now and in the next few weeks.

    "We have it in Hand to retain control"

    right here, each Individual comes into play. "If everyone keeps to the rules, keep your distance, wear masks, wash hands, could decrease the Numbers in two to three weeks", assessed the expert in the situation. Nevertheless, this does not mean that a new large Peak meet us in the autumn, however.

    "I have concerns about the trip are returnees, because there is little foreseeable is what's happening here," says the Epidemiologist thoughtful. "I think that we have it in Hand to retain control – both our individual behavior as well as with institutional systems relating to the Surveillance, diagnosis and treatment," says Long. Of course, the learned rules will be difficult for us often. "Because it's vacation time and the summer and we would prefer to forget everything. But, unfortunately, the Virus is still there.“ There to help: "We need to be vigilant." All the important messages to the Coronavirus in the FOCUS Online Newsletter. Subscribe now.

    Second wave coming? Real-time map shows Corona-spread in Germany, FOCUS Online/Wochit Second wave coming? Real-time map shows Corona distribution in Germany According to the furnace-like heat of the Storm: hail, Gale-force winds and up to 60 litres of rain at the weekend, a PCP coming To furnace-like heat of the Storm: hail, Gale-force winds and up to 60 litres of rain coming on the weekend

    Updated Date: 31 July 2020, 21:27

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