For months, many East Germans were worried that the EU oil embargo against Russia would backfire on them. Even higher fuel prices, company bankruptcies, job losses - all of this seemed possible. Because the supply of Berlin, Brandenburg and other regions with fuel depends on the PCK refinery in Schwedt, Brandenburg. The latter, in turn, has so far been dependent on Russian oil from the "Druzhba" pipeline, which the federal government intends to do without from January 1st.
Two weeks before the deadline, a replacement seems to have been found: so much non-Russian oil is to come to Schwedt via three routes that the refinery is largely working at full capacity and the supply is secured - as announced by State Secretary Michael Kellner from the Federal Ministry of Economics. Some questions are still open. There are some answers.
What is the status of the oil embargo?
The embargo agreed in the EU because of the Ukraine war has been in force since December 5th. It officially only applies to Russian oil delivered by tanker. Germany and Poland have also promised to refrain from pipeline oil. This should take effect from January. A third step will follow on February 5: an EU import ban on processed petroleum products from Russia, such as diesel or kerosene. With this - and with an additionally agreed oil price cap - the EU wants to dry up the Russian war chest.
What is actually the problem for PCK?
Before the start of the Ukraine war, oil imports from Russia covered around 35 percent of Germany's needs. Roughly speaking, a third of this came by tanker. Two thirds flowed via the "Druschba" to Schwedt and the refinery to Leuna in Saxony-Anhalt. In Leuna, the French owner Total quickly reoriented itself and declared that it would not use Russian oil at the end of the year. But in Schwedt, the PCK majority owners - two daughters of the Russian state-owned company Rosneft - showed no interest in turning away from Russian oil for a long time.
In mid-September, the federal government effectively withdrew control of PCK from the Rosneft subsidiaries by means of trusteeship. In addition, the government made far-reaching commitments for the Oder plant, including a two-year employment guarantee for the 1,200 employees and an investment package for a greener future. How exactly the "Druzhba" oil is to be replaced remained open.
What is the solution now?
Up to 55 percent of the demand is to be brought to Rostock by tanker and from there to Schwedt via an existing pipeline. The pipeline is currently too small to transport any more crude oil. It is also considered to be susceptible to repairs. Therefore, additional quantities should come via the Polish port of Gdansk, which also supplies the refinery in Leuna.
According to Kellner, PCK will thus have capacity utilization of a good 70 percent from January 1st. That is a promise from the Polish side. In addition, there would be contracts with Kazakhstan: "The goal is to further increase the occupancy rate from over 70 percent in January over the course of the year, once the new sources of supply have settled in next year." Brandenburg's Economics Minister Jörg Steinbach made it more specific: the refinery is currently 85 percent utilized. "I am optimistic that the negotiations with Kazakhstan will also succeed in closing this last gap."
It is unclear exactly how the situation with Kazakhstan is. The shareholders had "negotiated their own contracts with Kazakhstan," said Kellner when asked by left-wing politician Klaus Ernst, who rejects the sanctions policy. The Kazakhstan option also has a pitfall: the oil would flow through the "Druzhba" partly via Russian territory to Germany. Will Moscow allow this in the long run? An uncertainty, says Kellner.
Is fuel becoming scarce and expensive at East German gas stations?
The Brandenburg state government has already expressed confidence in the past few weeks that nothing will change dramatically at the beginning of the year. Economics Minister Steinbach now said of the solution found: "After the discontinuation of Russian oil from January, this is just as important a building block for securing the supply of crude oil to the PCK refinery as it is for the security of supply of oil in the region."
Kellner has also been saying for a long time that the prices at the gas stations will probably not be higher than in West Germany in the long term. Now he assured: "The secure supply of petrol, diesel and heating oil is and remains the top priority of the federal government in this crisis."
Only: Because of the war, Russian oil is currently significantly cheaper than other types of oil, which many now want. There could be a price effect if crude oil had to be bought more expensively. And with the embargo on Russian diesel and Co. from February, the range of these products is becoming scarcer. According to experts, this could also drive up prices, at least temporarily.
