The first life insurers are setting an example and ending the years of falling interest rates in the classic old-age provision. According to industry experts, it will be a while before life insurance on the whole yields significantly more, despite higher interest rates on the capital market. "The downward trend in the current interest rates of private pension insurance should be over," expects Lars Heermann from the rating agency Assekurata. "The majority of life insurers should keep the current interest rate stable and wait and see."

Assekurata expects a slight increase in the current interest rate from the current 2 percent to around 2.10 percent in the coming year on average for classic private pension insurance policies. With newer life insurance products with a reduced guarantee, which are now almost exclusively offered, it could be a little more. Heermann assumes an increase from the current 2.05 percent to an average of around 2.20 percent. "These are not huge leaps, but it is at least a trend reversal after falling interest rates in recent years."

Some insurers are just waiting

Industry leader Allianz Leben is already increasing the current interest rate in the coming year. Allianz Leben CEO Katja de la Viña spoke of a clear signal. R V Lebensversicherung and Bayerische Lebensversicherung AG are also on the up. Other insurance companies, including Alte Leipziger, Nürnberger Leben or Axa, will not change anything for 2023.

The current interest on classic life insurance consists of the guaranteed interest rate, which has been only 0.25 percent for new contracts since the beginning of 2022 according to a decision by the Federal Ministry of Finance. Actuaries (Deutsche Aktuarvereinigung, DAV) recommend leaving the so-called maximum technical interest rate at 0.25 percent in 2024.

"We don't just look at this one year in which interest rates on the market rose again, but also include various factors," explained Herbert Schneidemann, chairman of the DAV. "The interest rate situation on the capital market must first stabilize at this level before we can recommend a higher maximum technical interest rate."

Consumer advocates criticize the high costs

Old contracts still yield up to four percent here. In addition, there is the profit participation that life insurers set every year for all contracts depending on the economic situation and the success of their investment strategy. Current interest only relates to the savings portion after deducting acquisition and administration costs, among other things.

Consumer advocates have criticized the costs for years as too high. "The acquisition and sales costs are the largest block of costs. With every reduction in the guaranteed interest rate, we have demanded that the costs have to go down first," reports insurance expert Lars Gatschke from the Federal Association of Consumer Organizations (vzbv). For the time being, he too does not expect interest rates on life insurance policies to rise on a larger scale.

In his view, one reason is the capital buffer (additional interest reserve) that the insurance companies had to build up during the lull in interest rates in order to fulfill the high promises made in the past. "In order to build up the additional interest reserve, the insurers sold their silverware, now the books mainly contain low-interest fixed-interest securities that hardly yield anything."

The rising interest rates on the capital market have also created so-called hidden burdens in the balance sheets of life insurers, which Heermann currently estimates at around 50 billion euros. The companies do not have to dismantle them. However, the hidden burdens limit the flexibility of the insurers' investment strategy because they tie up capital. "I could imagine that the relief in the additional interest reserve will initially be used to reduce hidden burdens."

Inflation is likely to slow demand

In his estimation, the capital buffer should be fully funded at almost 100 billion euros by the end of 2022 thanks to the rise in interest rates. "This year, around 3 billion euros should be released from the additional interest reserve, in the coming years it should be around 4 to 5 billion euros a year, provided that interest rates on the capital market do not fall."

Heermann believes that the sharp rise in inflation will dampen demand for old-age provision products. "Life insurers will feel the effects of disposable income in new business." New business had already declined in the second half of the year. "Government relief measures such as the gas and electricity price brake will not result in customers buying life insurance in droves." The expert does not expect a wave of cancellations for current contracts, "even if one or the other customer dissolves his private pension plan for financial reasons."