Weeks, the truth will Soon show whether the stock market boom is only a conman-Rally

Everything half as bad? For the first quarter of the year, many of the Tech have not reported Figures-the giants in the United States, which were at times miser

Weeks, the truth will Soon show whether the stock market boom is only a conman-Rally

Everything half as bad? For the first quarter of the year, many of the Tech have not reported Figures-the giants in the United States, which were at times miserable. Amazon, for example, reported 5,01 Dollar profit per share, "only" 21 percent below expectations, such as the Nasdaq data show. In the case of Facebook , Netflix and the Google native Alphabet of the profit was even just a few percent lower than expected.

Others, such as the iPhone manufacturer Apple , scored with 22 per cent more profit than expected. Also Microsoft made between January and March, the bottom line is ten percent more than expected. Of all of the Investors favorites surprised but especially Tesla in the first quarter. Instead of a loss of 1.57 dollars per share, the electric car manufacturer even made of 0.08 dollars profit per share. Tesla 1.331,00 EUR +12,20 (+0,93%) Tradegate

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on The subject: Tesla depends on the traditional car manufacturers - what is the deal with the Hype of the US group?

The market had at the time of the numbers templates – at the end of March to mid-April – the bottom of the valley by steps. In view of the massive support by governments and Central banks, together with the reasonably good numbers, to be accessed by the investors. The Dow Jones Industrial and the market broader S&P 500, although not year-on-year in Plus, but especially in the Tech-values, it was steeper uphill than ever before.

The true litmus test of this Rally is to

, The selection index Nasdaq 100 shot to 11.069 million points high and closed last at 10.602 counters. The Nasdaq 100 is one of not only year-on-year a whopping 21,40 percent in the Plus, but even at a record high level – as it would have given the Coronavirus pandemic never.

it is Undisputed that many of the Tech companies operate in your niche, Quasi-monopolies, and in your field will probably not only today, but also in the future will be the winners. However, a failure would be the conclusion to infer from the strong Performance from the Deep out, that the markets have already fully completed with the pandemic. Bernecker exchange - compass orientation for your Depot. Clear. Compact. Competent. (Partner offer) Now for 30 days completely free trial!

the true litmus test is yet to come. With the now beginning quarter of the season will show whether the almost parabolic Rally of the past weeks is also justified by the fundamental half – or even a "conman". Because the markets are stacked, in view of the Situation actually.

The pandemic is raging worse than before

In the first quarter, namely, the pandemic arrived in the United States – now it is raging worse than before. The Numbers from the end of March, at the end of the first quarter, are therefore only conditionally meaningful for the real economic harm of the Virus, and the Lockdown actually do. Nasdaq 100 10.689,52 PTS. +87,31 (+0,82%) Nasdaq Global Indexes

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at the end of March, the US "only" approximately 164,000 cases as the data aggregation, "Our World in Data" of the University of Oxford shows. Thus, the States of Italy had overtaken, and, in the case of a more than five times as large a population but not necessarily a cause for concern. But then the curves diverged already in Italy infection, the numbers flattened, in the US, they aspired more and more to the top.

by the end of June, the total number of cases swelled in the States so to 2.59 million cases, nearly 16 times more Diseased than three months earlier. Since then, in less than half a month, is to grow the number of cases even to 3.3 million. The first States rowing back to Lockdown. California, for example, announced on Monday a second round of the Part, although the state kept at the first loosening yet.

if there is No market for many of the Tech giants is more important than the domestic

The Figures show that The biggest damage to the US is likely to have suffered-the economy is not in the first, but in the second quarter. All the more important for the further Performance of the Tech-share in the upcoming quarter are balance sheets. If everyone is positioned for the Tech-giants international, the domestic market is still hugely important.

this is evidenced such as Amazon. The retailer operates internationally, but in the past year, 61 percent of the sales came from the Region of North America. This revenue share was also in the first quarter of 2020, 61 percent, and even a percentage point more than in the prior-year quarter.

to Tech investors are well-advised to pay close attention to the new Figures. These are expected to deliver a much more precise picture of the real damage of the pandemic, as the Figures for the first quarter. Of course, it must not be forgotten that even Wall Street is aware of this – revenue and profit expectations have to be adjusted constantly. Pessimistic the pros are obvious. Stock Selection Europe - The trading system for the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 & co. are Now testing exclusive 30 days free of charge!

Nevertheless, it is possible that the corporations for the second quarter tend to Pay below this already reduced expectations report. Added to this is the risk that the results are indeed acceptable, the other business views, however, be revised downwards. Also this could entice investors, according to the good run the first rewards.

The height of fall is enormous - not only visually

in This case, investors should not consider that the case height is only optically extremely high. On the assessment side, has expanded the margin between rates and profits. The price-to-earnings ratio ("TTM", in the average of the last twelve months) of the Nasdaq 100 at the end of June, 31,38. At the end of 2019, this value was 27,29, about a year ago, even at only 24,31.

The CAPE Ratio, in turn, - also known as the Shiller p / e was even higher at 46,17. In this Evaluation, the gains of the past ten years, adjusted for inflation, are taken into account. At the beginning of the year, the CAPE Ratio was at 41,65, a further six months before that, with only 39,20.

Both earnings ratios maneuvering in order to risky levels. Usual values are in the range of about 25 were in the last few years, in the medium term, the smoothed p / e ratio. There are two ways how the code could normalize the number again – either to pull the profits of corporations at the rates, or prices significantly.

Which way is more likely to be seen over the coming quarter numbers. This, as well as the prospects, largely under the expectations of Wall Street are, should a sell-off of the Rally, it is conceivable. In the longer term, this may change little in the General trend of the courses. However, in the Short term, significant distortions were the favorites of the investors as a result.

On these Figures a glance:
  • Netflix - 16 is worth it. July - Expected profit per share: 1,83 dollars
  • Microsoft - 22. July - Expected profit per share: 1,39 dollars
  • Tesla 22. July - Expected loss per share: 2,35 dollars
  • Amazon - 23. July - Expected profit per share: $ 1.70 worth
  • Facebook - 29. July - Expected earnings per share of 1.42 dollars
  • Apple - 30. July - Expected profit per share: 1,97 dollars
  • Alphabet - 30. July - Expected profit per share: 8,21 Dollar


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Date Of Update: 15 July 2020, 01:28

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