The year of the economic slowdown

by The year 2019 says goodbye, leaving more doubts than when you started. After years of vigorous recovery, the activity has started slacking infected by the in

The year of the economic slowdown

by The year 2019 says goodbye, leaving more doubts than when you started. After years of vigorous recovery, the activity has started slacking infected by the instability outside: the fallout from the trade war, the turbulence of the Brexit, the crisis of the German automobile industry and the geopolitical tensions in other regions of the world have been the words of the chronicles to explain the loss of bellows of the international economy. The trade world he lived in 2019, its worst year in a decade.

Despite this, Spain's economy grew above the european average, with an enviable 2%, the unemployment rate continues to fall and domestic consumption maintains its force. What seemed to be a new storm at the end of summer seems to have last longer in winter, but the symptoms of the cooling are still there and the lack of a stable Government has weighed on the economic policy. The counterpoint to the uncertainty has been the increase of workers ' wages, pensions of retirees and the minimum wage, which have contributed to citizens to recover purchasing power. And to the great injury of the crisis, inequality, begins to heal slowly. This is the chronicle of a year marked by the following events:

Main economic indicators

gdp

Year

quarter on Quarter

4%

3

2,8

2*

2

1

0,5

0,4*

0

I

II

III

IV

I

II

III

IV

2018

2019

* Forecast of the Bank of Spain

Unemployment

Million

February 2013

5,04

5

Nov.

2019

3,2

4

3

2

1

0

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Affiliated to the Social Security

Million

Nov. 2019

19,38

19

18

17

16

15

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CPI (overall Index)

1,5

1,5%

1,0

0,5

0,4

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

N

public Debt

Billion euros

1,21

1,21

1,19

1,19

1,17

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

Arrival of foreign tourists

Number and variation year-on-year

10,12

-0,5%

Million

10

7,62

0.3% in

8

6

4

2

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

Source: Bank of Spain, Ministry of Employment

and Social Security, INE.

THE COUNTRY

Main economic indicators

gdp

Year

quarter on Quarter

4%

3

2,8

2*

2

1

0,5

0,4*

0

I

II

III

IV

I

II

III

IV

2018

2019

* Forecast of the Bank of Spain

Unemployment

Million

February 2013

5,04

5

Nov.

2019

3,2

4

3

2

1

0

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Affiliated to the Social Security

Million

Nov. 2019

19,38

19

18

17

16

15

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

CPI (overall Index)

1,5

1,5%

1,0

0,5

0,4

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

N

public Debt

Billion euros

1,21

1,21

1,19

1,19

1,17

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

Arrival of foreign tourists

Number and variation year-on-year

10,12

-0,5%

Million

10

7,62

0.3% in

8

6

4

2

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

Source: Bank of Spain, Ministry of Employment

and Social Security, INE.

THE COUNTRY

Main economic indicators

gdp

Unemployment

Year

quarter on Quarter

Million

February 2013

5,04

5

4%

Nov.

2019

3,2

4

3

2,8

3

2*

2

2

1

1

0,5

0,4*

0

0

I

II

III

IV

I

II

III

IV

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

2018

2019

* Forecast of the Bank of Spain

CPI (overall Index)

Affiliated to the Social Security

Million

Nov. 2019

19,38

1,5

1,5%

19

18

1,0

17

0,5

0,4

16

15

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

N

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

public Debt

Arrival of foreign tourists

Number and variation year-on-year

10,12

-0,5%

Million

Billion euros

1,21

10

1,21

7,62

0.3% in

8

6

1,19

4

1,19

2

1,17

0

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

E

F

M

To

M

J

J

To

S

Or

Source: Bank of Spain, Ministry of Employment and Social Security, INE.

THE COUNTRY

political Paralysis. The Government of Pedro Sanchez presented budgets at the start of 2019, but failed to carry them forward and opened a period of interim which has been extended throughout the year. Gone are pending reforms such as pensions, the labour or the regional finances. Nor is it approved of taxes announced in the high income, large companies, financial transactions, or the rate Google.

Spain grow above the european average, and the wage go up

wages are desperezan. The recovery has reached to the salaries in 2019. The job takes nearly six years to grow strongly. Wages, in contrast, there were added to this euphoria. The high levels of unemployment (still at around 14%) and the low productivity in Spain, linked to the high precariousness and the lower power of the workers in collective bargaining following the labour reform of 2012, resulted in wages anemic. The situation has changed this year. To the end of 2019, the salaries agreed in the agreements grow 2.3%, the salaries of public workers, 2.5%, and the minimum wage gave its biggest jump during the democracy: 22.3%, to 900 euros. This has led to a rise in the average salary in the first three quarters of the year at around 2% (1.876,95 euros). This progress, however, has been clouded by cooling economic. Up to September, employment grew at an annual rate of 1.7% (346.300 additional jobs), compared with 3.2% from the beginning of the year (596.900).

MORE INFORMATION

‘Case Bankia’: a time, view the decision, the price of housing moderated its growth in The average wage recorded the largest rise in a decade

Pension: the reform that isn't coming. Another year ends and still get Social Security reform to close its deficit, perched around the 18,000 million from 2016. The increase in wages and contribution bases (minimum and maximum) has increased the revenue contributions and the institute previsor will do more fundraising than ever before. But they have also grown the expenses. All of the contributory pensions rose at least 1.6%, and a good part of the widow grew still more. The paternity leave was increased to six weeks in January and two months in April, raising the expenditure. And as I climbed (and climb) the need for income, there is no agreement on the recommendations of the Toledo Pact. To point reached in February, the elections of April crossed his path. So that the reform does not come, the resources to close the Social Security deficit and the Reserve Fund dwindles: just have a little more than 2,000 million.

Bankia: the trial of the symbol of the crisis. Bankia needed 22.424 million for not breaking in 2012; the State got this money and from the clients to lose their savings. Past the shock, they should respond to the managers. The rescue record and the politicization of the dome (ordered Rodrigo Rato, ex-leader's economic PP) have been converted to Bankia in the symbol of the crisis. After 10 months of trial and 74 sessions, it is expected the ruling of the National high court that judged to 34 defendants, 31 individuals and three legal entities: Bankia, BFA and Deloitte. Credited with false accounting and scam investors for the ipo of the entity. While calls for his acquittal, alleging that the Bank of Spain supervised all of his decisions and never criticized. Not judged to the supervisor, but behind it all, with a shade of responsibility. The Court must decide whether, in addition to faults, there are also culprits.

Bench of the accused by the 'case Bankia', in the Audiendia National of San Fernando de Henares.

The 'case Villarejo' assaults the Ibex. on The 14th of January, the new president of the BBVA, Carlos Torres Vila, ordered the extension of the internal investigation is open on the relations of the bank with the company Cenyt, the commissioner retired Villarejo. According to reports, the entity had hired to spy on people involved in the attempt of the construction company Sacyr of entering into his capital. The case led to the judge Manuel Garcia-Castellon to impute in July the bank for the alleged crimes of bribery, discovery and revelation of secrets and corruption in a separate piece of the case Tandem that researches Villarejo. The research splashed directly to the former president, Francisco González, who denied knowing about the alleged plot, although it was unveiled that the bank maintained business relationships with Cenyt between 2004 and 2018, when the commissioner had entered the prison. The concern has been raised whole from the ECB requested information from the Spanish justice on these relationships. Meanwhile, fulfilled threats of Villarejo, there have been information that you agree to other companies of the Ibex, such as Iberdrola, which has recognized that there are bills paid to Cenyt, and, more recently, Repsol and La Caixa.

The real estate market slows down, but the rent reaches a maximum. Neither the sale, nor the construction nor the housing prices are already what they were. After two years of strong growth, 2019 has brought a new inflection. Although some startle, as the entry into force of the new mortgage law, which caused fall-off purchases, the sector attends to a normalization: this year will end up possibly with less sales than in 2018, the new housing built shall not exceed by much the 100,000 that were built last year and houses and flats are enhancing the pace of past times. However, prices are still growing more than wages and this affects the most vulnerable groups. Young people without family support or are not able to save enough are doomed to the rent, which eats more and more a part of the income even though in Madrid and Barcelona has also begun to show timid descents. A legislative change in march gave greater guarantees for the tenants to recover a minimum duration of contracts of five years (seven if the lessor is a company) and to limit the rise in prices year-on-year the CPI.

The taxi drivers are blocking Madrid and Barcelona. The protest from taxi drivers against Uber and Cabify marked the first days of the year. During a week, the taxi drivers of Barcelona blocked the Gran Vía, one of the main arteries of the city, and staged strong protests that were replicated in Madrid in full International Fair of Tourism (Fitur). They demanded a regulation that acotara to the activity of the VTC (vehicle of transport to be arranged). The Catalan government approved a decree that forces you to engage the VTC with 15 minutes of advance, a margin that later the Barcelona Metropolitan Area —which encompasses the capital and 35 neighboring cities— expanded to an hour, although this regulation was suspended in the courts. The decree caused the departure of Uber in Barcelona; Cabify suspended operations a few months and then was adapted to the standard.

The activity starts slacking by the international stability

Strips and aflojas in the trade war. The global economy as the year ends as it began: slope of the jolts of Donald Trump. The trade war that has already lasted for almost two years just to take a breath. USA and China closed in December the first phase of the agreement that it negotiated, freezing the mutual escalation in tariff. Washington also agreed to a renewed commercial treaty with Mexico and Canada. But that does not mean that you have reached peace. The fronts of the conflict mutate: Trump now gives samples point towards Europe. Meanwhile, the economy suffers the consequences of the attacks. The IMF announced that the world will grow this year to its lowest level in a decade and that the trade dispute will cost more than 600,000 millions of euros in 2020. And the implosion of the World Trade Organization (WTO) by the blockade of USA announces a world where conflicts are not resolved through an independent agency, but with the law of the strongest.

U.S. imposes tariffs to Spain. Spain also is saved from the vortex protectionist Trump. The verdict of the WTO declared illegal by the aid of Brussels Airbus opened the slit to Washington to shoot on EU exports to the US: from the 18 of October a slab with a value of over 6,800 million weighs about a list of 150 products. The impact for Spain is nearly 1,000 millions, and the items most affected are oil, wine and cheese, with a tariff of 25%. This lien is in addition to the surcharge of 35% that the US had already imposed prior to the black olives Spanish.

Lagarde replaces Draghi: the owl comes to the ECB. will Mario Draghi, the man who revolutionized the European Central Bank (ECB). And comes Christine Lagarde, the first woman and the first policy without experience as a banking centre to the front of the body. The exjefa of the IMF will expect eight years very complicated as the president of the ECB. First, because monetary policy is showing signs of having exhausted its ability to boost growth and inflation in the eurozone. And it does so at a time of maximum confrontation between the members of the governing Council, divided between hawks and doves. In an attempt to sew the wounds, she has wanted to get away from the two sides: “My ambition is to be the owl which is often associated with wisdom.” Don't want to get wet. But no one doubts that the era of the interest rates incredibly low will continue.

The pulse for leading the 5G. The 5G to govern systems remotely as delicate as the communications or the defence of a country. Hence it has become the weapon of choice of the new cold war that is settled between the U.S. and China. Trump ordered the ban on Huawei, the world's largest provider of networks 5G, under the excuse that they could be spying for the chinese Government. Companies like Google followed the order and refused to Huawei the updates of the Android system, which governs 85% of mobile phones sold in the world. The sales terminal of the chinese firm, the second global manufacturer after Samsung, had collapsed. After several postponements of the veto, the war is on stand-by. And can be unrestrained in 2020, when booting the commercial services of 5G around the world.

The largest ipo in history. The start of trading of Saudi Aramco, at the beginning of December, has marked a milestone both for the oil sector —that in the middle of COP25 of Madrid gave a sample of the dead is still very much alive— as for the arab country. By only 1.5 per cent of its capital, the second largest producer of crude oil conventional of the world got the not inconsiderable sum of € 23,000 million euros to shore up its ambitious plan of investments that finish leak your way out of fossil fuels. To achieve the success of the higher placement of the story, the saudi regime supported its own citizens —to those who offered major incentives— and in other petroestados of their environment, such as Kuwait and United Arab Emirates. All in all, and despite the rises of the first few sessions, its stock price has returned almost to its starting point.

Changes in the domes business

last June the board of directors of The English Court decided the appointment as president of Marta Alvarez Guil, daughter of Isidoro Álvarez, who was president of the entity. It was a movement that was almost sung after the dismissal of his cousin Dimás Gimeno in mid-2018 and the transition of Jesus Nuño de la Rosa, a man of her confidence.

changes have Also taken place in other companies.One of the most prominent was the relay in the presidency of the electric company Endesa de Borja Prado by Juan Sánchez-Calero, who assumed the position without executive powers, so that the ceo, Joseph Rowers, became the first executive. Inditex has incorporated a ceo, Carlos Crespo, as the second of Paul Island, and the Banco Santander has appointed Luis Isasi, president of Santander Spain, which left Rodrigo Echenique. The entity that presides Ana Botín lived a particular episode bizarre when in January it came down to the signing of Italian Andrea Orcel to be ceo in September of 2018. Also this has been the first year of Carlos Torres, and Onur Genç as president and ceo of BBVA, respectively, after the departure of Francisco Gonzalez. For the bank it has been a year marked by the case Villarejo.

Another significant change was the departure of number two of Ferrovial for 10 years, Íñigo Meirás, who was not long in joining Logista.

Major international companies have also been movements at the top of their domes. Larry Page and Sergey Brin, Google co-founders, left at the beginning of December their positions of executive director and president of Alphabet. In its place came Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Google. Adam Neumann, co-founder of the company of coworking WeWork, was fired in September as ceo of the firm after the fiasco of his departure to Bag. One of the latest victims of the year has been Dennis Muilenburg: last week Boeing will ceased as ceo, shortly after the aircraft manufacturer of the united STATES announced that it would stop production of its 737 MAX aircraft, involved in two accidents. Will be replaced by Dave Calhoun, president of the company.

With information of M. V. Gómez , L. Doncel , J. L. Aranda , M. Á. Noceda , Í. of Barrón , A. Munoz , J. Catá , I. Fariza and L. Delle Femmine.

Updated Date: 29 December 2019, 07:00

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