So, the housing market plays in 2020. The business of the sale has to be able to attract the younger buyer seeking their first home. Without this plaintiff, the sector will suffer to achieve production of 150,000 houses of new construction that developers have in their sights. For the moment, everything points to the activity of 2019 will be far from that mark, although it will exceed the previous year's, when Spain became to build more than 100,000 real estate for the first time since the recovery in real estate.
The rent of houses also move in turbulent water. Prices continue to rise in many cities and the agreement for a coalition Government between PSOE and we Can agree to enable price limits, a measure that is not like in the sector of companies with rental housing because they believe that's going to get the offer. With these uncertainties start the new year in the housing market, which are pending, thousands of people ask the same questions.
Forecast increase in the price
housing
Estimation of increase in the price of housing in towns of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.
Forecast increase
5%
2%-5%
Less than 2%
Oviedo
James C.
Santander
Pamplona
Huesca
Lion
Logroño
Zaragoza
Barcelona
Salamanca
Madrid
Teruel
Toledo
Valencia
Palma
Badajoz
Ciudad Real
Alicante
Seville
Cadiz
Malaga
Ceuta
Melilla
Santa Cruz
Tenerife
interannual Evolution of the price
of housing in Spain
10%
8
7,2
6,7
6
5,5
4,5
4,4
3,9
4
3,3
2
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
mariano zafra / THE COUNTRY
Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor s.
Forecast increase in the price
housing
Estimation of increase in the price of housing in towns of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.
Forecast increase
5%
2% to 5%
Less than 2%
Oviedo
James C.
Santander
Pamplona
Huesca
Lion
Logroño
Zaragoza
Barcelona
Salamanca
Madrid
Tarragona
Teruel
Toledo
Valencia
Palma
Badajoz
Ciudad Real
Alicante
Seville
Cadiz
Malaga
Ceuta
Melilla
Santa Cruz
Tenerife
interannual Evolution of the price of the home
in Spain
the rise in The price of housing will be reduced to half in less than half a decade.
10%
8
7,2
6,7
6
5,5
4,5
4,4
3,9
4
3,3
2
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
mariano zafra / THE COUNTRY
Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor s.
Forecast increase in the price of housing
Estimation of increase in the price of housing in towns of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.
Forecast increase
5%
2% to 5%
Less than 2%
Oviedo
Santander
James C.
Pamplona
Lion
Burgos
Huesca
Logroño
Soria
Zamora
Zaragoza
Barcelona
Salamanca
Tarragona
Madrid
Teruel
Talavera de la R.
Basin
Toledo
Valencia
Palma
Badajoz
Ciudad Real
Alicante
Seville
Cadiz
Las Palmas
Gran Canaria
Malaga
Ceuta
Melilla
Santa Cruz
Tenerife
Evolution year-on-year in the price of housing in Spain
10%
the rise in The price of housing will be reduced to half in less than half a decade.
8
7,2
6,7
5,5
6
4,4
4,5
3,9
4
3,3
2
0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
mariano zafra / THE COUNTRY
Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor s.
To find the answers, various representatives of the real estate sector —consultants, appraisers, portals, promoters, and tosociaciones— analyzing the situation holds the housing in 2020. These are its main findings:
are you Going to come to another crisis?
At this point there is total consensus, and none of the respondents sees a recession next. “We are very far from entering another crisis in the real estate sector,” says Arturo Diaz, direct the executive of the Residential division of Savills Aguirre Newman. For this expert, the Spanish market is going towards a situation of stability, with growth more moderate in the prices and a few beats sale something more logical”.
Matches with that vision Nick Wride, director of Living & Alternatives of JLL. “None of our studies predicted [a crisis], however, we appreciate a growth less rapid,” he says.
Forecasts to 2020
Pisos.com. The real estate portal considers that the sale prices of the flats will grow in this 2020 of between 2% and 4%. The rentals will something more according to their forecasts: between 4% and 6%.
Fotocasa. The portal of the Norwegian group Adevinta is something more conservative and points out that the selling price will average between 1% and 2%. The rent will be around 2.5%, and mortgages in what will be a 5%.
Builders Association of Promoters of Spain. For PACE, employers ' association of construction companies, the prices of sales during this year are going to increase from a minimum of 3.5% up to a maximum of 5%.
Moody s. The rating agency believes that the Spanish property market is the one that most encourages the housing of the whole of Europe during the next twelve months. Its forecast for 2020 puts the growth of selling prices of around 5.5%. It is also the highest percentage among all companies and agencies that have developed forecasts.
Standard & Poor's . This rating agency to downgrade a point and a half, the odds of your opponent and points out that the housing for sale is encourages in Spain in 2020 3.5%. In addition, it considered that the slowdown of the market is extended and projected to 2021 with a growth in prices of 3%.
Bankinter. The bank notes that the sale prices of the houses will grow between 1% and 2% during the next 12 months. In regard to the Euribor, the reference rate for most mortgages, believes that it will continue in negative and will be located between -0,27% and -0,17%.
Rafael Gil, director of the research department of the adjusting Tinsa, speaks of a “flat evolution” of the sector in line with the economic growth of Spain and with the forecasts of wages and employment. And he warns: “Obviously, a different behavior of these affect the real estate market”.
“The business promoter is cyclical and, although it may undergo some correction time, this will not be like in 2008”, says David Martinez, ceo of Aedas Homes. Also the president of the Association of Developers-Builders of Spain (APCE), Juan Antonio Gómez-Pintado, remember that in the future, “there will be crisis, that are of natural cycles of an economic, but at the moment not in the short term.” Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, ceo of Neinor Homes "in general, we find a strong industry, solid and with enough demand”.
what will Raise the purchase price?
The president of the employers ' association feels that this issue “will depend very much on the geographical areas”. “On average, at sales in Spain [the growth of prices] will be between 3.5% and 5%,” specifies Gómez Pintado. In the consulting firm CBRE to stoop that forecast slightly, and estimate that it will be “between 2% and 3%,” according to its national director of Residential, and Land, Samuel's Population.
In general, all of the analysts consulted percentages move in these parameters (between 2% and 5%), which Sandra Daza, director-general of Gesvalt, synthesizes to point out that the prices “will keep the ascending line of the last few months, although in a more moderate”.
there are discarded some downs spot: “Madrid and Barcelona seem to have reached, with three or four years in advance, the maximum of its cycle,” said Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, managing director of Valuation Society. Arturo Diaz, of Savills, agrees that “some areas of Madrid and Barcelona and could adjust slightly prices”.
what about the rent?
“The main domestic markets do not reflect much more travel on the rise and necessitates an increase in supply,” says Samuel Population, CBRE. Javier Rodríguez Heredia, head of the commission's Rental of the Association of real Estate assets for Rent (Asipa), believes that “what is essential to level the prices is that there is a greater supply of housing” to what we demand “legal certainty that will attract the savings of institutional, that is the only engine that can create this type of offer affordable in the volume that you need Spain”.
As is the case with the housing for sale, again there is that look in the Catalan capital to see potential lows. “The way of the contraction of prices that has begun to Barcelona, it is possible that we will see him in other cities for 2020” illustrates the director of Studies and Training of Fotocasa, Ismail Kardoudi.
When is best time to buy?
The majority of analysts point out that, for the curve of prices expected, there will be great differences. “To speculate on the exact time of the purchase doesn't make much sense because it is unlikely that a drop in prices,” indicates Jorge Pérez Leza, ceo of Metrovacesa. “The best time always depends on the client and the asset-to-buy” affects Nuria Serrano, director of Residential New construction and Soil at BNP Paribas Real Estate.
Sandra Daza, of Gesvalt, it does point out instead that “the best time to buy a home would be to do it during the first few months of the year,” considering that the Euribor continues in a negative, the European Central Bank has delayed the rate rise and the prices, though moderate, will continue to rise.
Of the same opinion are Gomez-Painted — “I would as soon as possible”, indicates the president of the employers ' association of promoters— and Arturo Diaz, of Savills, who introduces a new variable: “If it is a primary residence the answer would be the same. If we talk about the purchase of a home investment, you would expect that the formation of the new Government and to understand the housing policies that are going to be applied”.
Nick Wride, of JLL, points out that its decision “would depend on the location of the house they were to buy. And the ceo of Aedas Homes, David Martinez, insists on the importance of not marked times: “it Istudiaría the market, compare to the offer and, if he found the home that fit my needs and budget, give the step to buy.”
what will Improve the access of young people to the home?
That young people can be emancipated and to access your first home is the weak point of this industry, which seeks with urgency the formula to recover this collective stifled by low wages and the impossibility to save. “Promoters must be able to put on the market and affordable housing since the financial sector should provide funding for the payment of the entry”, indicates the chief executive officer of Aedas Homes.
The efforts are focused on the biggest stumbling block, and this is that many young people have the ability to pay, but do not have savings to cope with the 20% down required to purchase. Metrovacesa works in the same line. “We are looking for those formulas to facilitate the payment of the entry and also building techniques that reduce costs or delivery times, or product types that meet the demand of the young people,” argues Jorge Pérez de Leza, ceo of Metrovacesa.
with Respect to the rental, the companies are pushing projects key in hand that will be allocated to the lease. “Whether it's one or the other modality, we expect that 2020 is the year of the return of young people to the market. Some will rent and others will buy a first home in emerging areas in the second ring of major metropolitan areas, that will be more accessible,” concludes Martinez.
Search solutions is already a priority. But the attempts could fall on deaf ears if there is no collaboration of the public Administration and financial institutions. “I don't think are viable solutions unilateral. The main stumbling block has to do with the amount of initial savings you need and that is where we are exploring more alternatives, although the solution is not simple”, points out José Ignacio Morales Plaza, ceo of Via Célere.
The president of the employers ' association recognizes that “we are putting in place plans public-private partnership” and that this will be a way to resolve part of the problem. And, in addition, they are proposing a program of access as that of England, named help to buy (help to buy), which consists of the provision by Government of an endorsement —pre study of the ability to pay— that facilitates the crediting of the entry of the house.
“The entities of credit, of the hand of insurance companies, are working on new formulas that facilitate the access of young people. An example of this collaboration is to extend insurance of mortgage credit, increasing the amount of the mortgage up to 95%”, reason, Sandra Daza, of Gesvalt.
The ceo of the Society of Appraisal, indicates that “the problem is the productive system in general” and therefore the solution “must be reached by the improvement of the conditions and competitiveness of wages”.
there are no shortage of proposals to facilitate the rentals. “We have 10 times less social housing than our european neighbours; it is necessary to design a policy of social housing rental-active and realistic, a legal environment stable, and to be clear that the savings at the institutional level is the only one who can fund this mismatch,” he insists Javier Rodríguez Heredia, of Asipa.
what you need to look in 2020?
“The technology is revolutionizing and transforming the sector”, says Nuria Serrano, of BNP Paribas, who added another important milestone: “we can Not lose sight of sustainability. In 2020 implementing the european directive on the energy efficiency of buildings that establishes that, to the end of the year, all buildings of new construction must have an energy consumption close to zero”.
Also the ceo of Via Célere affects in that aspect, that related to another relatively new trend in the sector. “We have to continue working on the industrialization of the construction process”, indicates Moral Plaza.
Along with the sustainability, Ismail Kardoudi, the portal Fotocasa, it mentions the rent. “It required a firm commitment to the creation of a large public park rental housing for the implementation of which takes time and resources”, values the expert. Nick Wride remember to in that subparagraph a novelty, since this year they are going to get to the market, “a substantial number of multifamily rental housing, which is referred to as build-to-rent [built for rent]”. The expert JLL ensures that those first promotions to “check your acceptance on the part of the market”.
Another issue that we will have to be outstanding, says Rafael Gil, Tinsa, is “the effects of Brexit on the markets of the coast”. Pedro Soria, Chief Commercial Officer of the same adjusting, ask to pay “attention to measures that can foster the new Government in terms of housing and investment”.
To Fernando Encinar, head of studies of Idealistic, “any change of fiscal pressure on the middle classes or the investors and any regulatory change that might entail, for example, a control of the rental prices, you will have a negative effect”. In addition, Oak grove calls for “clear rules and legal security”. A desire to really share in the sector that Samuel's Population, of CBRE, summarizes by stating that “it will be important to have a political stability, and with measures to promote the economy, employment and housing production”.
Desires of politicians for the new year
housing starts the year also with agitation in the political arena. The government agreement reached by PSOE and We may devote a substantial part to this area, with a commitment to regular increases in the price of rent (something that the opposition has rejected decisively in the past), to improve the park public housing and to focus on it primarily to the lease. Before it was known what the content of that covenant, THE COUNTRY requested to political of the five parties most voted for in the last general election (Vox has not answered the request) a desire for the new year. This is what they ask the politicians to the Magi in this 2020:
Beatriz Corredor (PSOE) : “by 2020 we hope to be able to see passed the Law on State Housing, which is already prepared for presentation in the Courts, for that to be effective the right to housing as a public service of general interest. In addition, we must continue taking steps to promote access to rental, especially for young people.”
Ana Zurita (people's Party) “for there To be legal certainty, easing the supply of housing in both ownership and rental, especially for young people, and simplification of bureaucratic barriers to todI citizens have access to decent housing and affordable prices. We are committed also by the housing, and territorial planning as cornerstones of the fight against climate change. Homes more energy efficient and lower energy consumption.”
Pilar Garrido (United we Can): “From United we Can we will fight for that 2020 will be a year in advance of the effective guarantee of the right to adequate housing and to ensure that access to housing at an affordable price and the security in its enjoyment are to become a reality in our country. To do this, it is urgent to end the speculation about a well as housing.”
Edmundo Bal (Citizens) : “stop being a mission impossible for the young people who want to do it [emancipation], which families pay less for the price of the light and, in short, that it is easier to rent and purchase affordable housing in our country.”
Date Of Update: 05 January 2020, 16:00
