The persistent negative interest rates lead to home ownership is sought, expensive and scarce remains. Investors are still looking for ways to achieve, with manageable risks, a real positive return, write the real estate experts of the Credit Suisse in a study published on Wednesday.
Since this is currently almost only with real estate possible, is likely to remain the system pressure to return real estate according to the CS this year, and the so-called real estate"super-cycle" to continue.
prices to rise
A consequence of the negative interest rates is, among other things, that residential property had become almost prohibitive. More than five-year income, there is a need, on average, for the purchase of a condominium. In the case of a detached house, there were on average seven.
And a slump in the prices for the property was not yet in sight: "For real estate developers in the construction of rental housing is simply easier and more lucrative, because institutional investors because of the negative interest rates for the purchase of such superstructures snake", it means more.
Consequently, too little residential emergent property, what intensification of the phenomena of the Shortage. Therefore, the CS expect prices for experts also in this year, with further increases in Ownership.
In the rental housing market is somewhat different, meanwhile, The negative interest rates lead to growing vacancies. Also, because the building activity is aimed at the demand in the past. The country is built, even though the demand is low. In the city building land is scarce, the demand is very high.
with regard to the vacancy rates, are likely to, in accordance with the CS-Economists in the process, the not-quite-new apartment objects in the strongest under pressure. The highest vacancy rates you sign up to time, neither the old nor the new apartments, but in the case of the not-quite-new items.
Specifically, it was in expensive rented accommodation at the age of three to six years, which would be after the departure of the initial tenant now empty.
Lower rental rates in the country
Therefore, expect the CS-experts with an average of greater increase in vacancy than the last year. The already has a relatively long marketing period of rental apartments is likely to be even longer.
Add to this that neither the immigration nor the economy were evident in the current year of growth in the rental market. At least for the tenant, there is good news: "The rental rates are expected to fall due to the slightly rising vacancy levels, which was again higher under pressure", to predict the CS-Economists.
No all-clear in Terms of rental rates, there is, meanwhile, in the five major centers and a few medium-sized centres. Here, rents are likely to tighten, according to the CS slightly again. (fal/sda)
Created: 04.03.2020, 10:34 PMUpdated Date: 04 March 2020, 10:03