The Coronavirus is to keep the economy even longer in the clamp handle. Economists think of the summer to a gentle recovery possible. However, all of the forecasts, could quickly become worthless.
Halle/Berlin (dpa) - The surprising discovery of the Corona-crisis: In the Lockdown have slept with the Germans better than before. Economic researchers have three months after the start of travel and contact restrictions found.
in fact, the country is coming from the point of view of several institutions is still relatively lightly due to the severity of Corona-recession. However, whether the citizens can sleep well in the future, quiet, depends on whether the pandemic flares up again.
"The German economy was hit by the pandemic difficult," noted the Leibniz-Institute for economic research in Halle (IWH) on Tuesday. "However, the downturn is not as deep as in the neighbouring large countries in the Euro area, where the number of cases and deaths relative to population is higher." The essence of the economic report from hall: "The recession is likely to be in the second quarter at its low point, because the epidemic has declined in may and June, and the restrictions were loosened."
The economic expectations of German financial experts have improved in June and the third month in a row. Such as the Mannheim centre for European economic research (ZEW) announced on Tuesday, increased the collected indicator by 12.4 points to 63.4 meters. This is the highest value since March 2006.
Already in the previous two months, had lightened the mood considerably, following a slump in March due to the Corona-crisis dramatically. "The Confidence is growing that the economic trough will be in the summer of 2020 through steps," commented ZEW President Achim Wambach.
These expectations are subject to the Proviso that there is no strong increase in the Corona disease in the autumn. The restrictions gradually are lifted, there may be a significant increase in the Infection, it means there to the IWH. The pandemic should wear in the autumn, would be the "the forecast recovery of demand in the way".
Currently, the IWH to give Economists are relatively optimistic, by the decline of the German gross domestic product of 5.1 percent, followed by a recovery in the order of 3.2 percent in 2021.
The people of the Bundesbank's economists expect a significantly greater intrusion. You hold in your current forecast, a decline in economic output by 7.1 percent this year for, probably, other forecasts are even gloomier. For comparison: in 2009, the largest European economy had collapsed as a result of the global financial crisis of 5.7 percent. In 2010 and 2011, the gross domestic product rose again by 4.2 and 3.9 percent.
The grinding traces of the Corona pandemic have affected the individual sectors of the economy very differently. Major events and tourism to be significantly shrunk, personal services and retail trade. The least services in the financial sector, which can be carried out for the most part, without direct contact with the customer, are concerned, the IWH writes. "Some industries, such as the Online trading even benefit from the crisis."
especially the deep tracks on the German labour market will remain the IWH according to 2021 visible: "The unemployment rate will rise significantly this year, from 5.0 percent in 2019, to 6.3 percent. In the year 2021 it is expected to increase to 6.4 per cent", in the East, even from 6.4 to 7.8 and then to 7.9 percent.
"we Compare the Situation in Germany with other countries, for example, the United States, since the German labour market very well," said John Seebauer, scientists from the German Institute for economic research (DIW). Government measures, such as short-time working meant that employees were relatively few Concerns about their own financial Situation, as the long-term study of the socio-economic panel show. Much more difficult the position of the self-employed, but it is.
The study also found that people in Germany felt this spring, lonely and with your family life are less satisfied than in previous years. Loneliness is not increased, therefore, depression, but still. In General, life satisfaction is unchanged. "It is noteworthy that satisfaction with sleep is gone during the lock downs up," said Panel head of Stefan Liebig. "It might be for some people, a certain recovery effect due to the Lockdown occurred."
economic forecast, Bundesbank June 2020
Statistisches Bundesamt 1. Quarter
results of the SOEP study Corona
ZEW press releaseUpdated Date: 17 June 2020, 03:33